This is the next of our series of missives on our unfinished work to restore the promise of our country and its government. Each will focus on a single element of the many opportunities and challenges that lie ahead.
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What Donald Trump wants is for your despair to disable you. He wants you to watch the news helplessly, heart sinking to new depths. He wants you to believe that everything he announces will materialize, along with other worse things that he has yet to imagine. He wants you to think that every time he is blocked, he will ignore the obstacle, refuse to honor a court order, or find a new path.
Could you do that for him? Could you become so disoriented that you wouldn’t be able to identify a victory even when you secure one? Could your ability to find ways forward diminish? Could you marginalize your own self? Could you not be able to bear it anymore?
It’s what he wants. But we couldn’t and wouldn’t do that, not ever. Instead, we take the stone off our chests. We will sort out what is happening and recognize these four current conditions upon which we will build.
It’s Not Just About Indiana
It has been so long since a large group of elected Republicans stood up for what is right that we almost forgot that it was possible. In Indiana 21! Republican State Senators voted against Trump’s redistricting plan. All faced threats from Trump that he would get them thrown out. Not only did they not vote the way he wanted, but they also cited democratic principles in refusing to do so. Post Texas (-5) and California (+5) redistricting efforts have slowed.
Slowly, the once entirely absent Republican pushback is growing. In the House, four Republicans faced Trump’s political death threats. They signed the discharge petition that put extending Affordable Care Act subsidies on the House floor. Once it got there, 17 Republicans voted to pass it, giving new life to health care subsidy negotiations in the Senate.
In the Senate, Trump continues to rage as five Republican Senators voted to limit his military powers in Venezuela. Senators Susan Collins, Rand Paul, and Lisa Murkowski were joined by long time Trump apostles Todd Young of Indiana and Josh Hawley of Missouri. Now Trump’s henchpersons at the Department of Justice are investigating Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Trump will be unable to get any Federal Reserve nominee confirmed by the Senate until the dogs return to the kennel.
Trump’s ability to punish MAGA wanderers remains huge, still far beyond the recriminations favored by the presidents before him. However, the fact that some have incurred Trump’s wrath and have survived has been noticed. The closer we get to the November off-year elections, the more some will be looking beyond Trump, still as carefully as they can.
The Republican Schism Grows
It is not difficult to discern why so many Republican members of Congress are battling each other over MAGA principles, whatever they are. Every week they take their positions and every week Trump undercuts them, disagrees with himself and pretends he didn’t say something he said. He arrests one dictator indicted for drug smuggling and pardons another. He is and isn’t an isolationist. He believes in fighting for affordability except on days that he labels it a hoax. Intense narcissism never constituted a political platform, but it has become one now.
All of which make it difficult for Mike Johnson and John Thune to function. Faced with a budget crisis again in late January, Johnson’s survival as Speaker is grounded in there being no one else that House members can think of to elect. All of which will make it difficult for him to establish any kind of leadership that could save his House majority in November.
It’s not wise to underestimate Republican differences over Trump’s long-time friendship with Jeffrey Epstein. Here the discharge petition that led to the release of millions of pages of Epstein files was signed by four Republicans who are to the right of Trump, all originally bought in to the withholding of the files being a Democratic conspiracy. Still locked into what they see as a government conspiracy to protect the elites, they were willing to tolerate the political damage Trump is suffering.
The Midterm Outcome Emerges
Only twice in the last 30 years has the party in power escaped losing seats at the midterm. This won’t be the third time. There are two additional factors to our advantage beyond the above stated Republican profiles in courage and their schism. First, Trump for once isn’t lying when he says Republican candidates do better when he is on the ballot, which isn’t going to happen again. Democratic gubernatorial candidates Mikey Sherrill in New Jersey and Abigail Spanbarger in Virginia ran 12-15% better this November than Democratic candidates in their own state just one year before, when Trump beat Kamala Harris. This includes some party vote-switching (including among Latino voters) but it also included MAGA voters staying at home. When Trump is not on the ballot, his political activity, endorsements and such turn out more Democratic voters. That is great news, and it won’t change between now and November.
Second, 2026 voters aren’t going to blame Joe Biden for whatever they are feeling about affordability. A record 70% don’t like Trump’s handling of the economy. Here Trump is victimized by Trump. After Biden helped bring inflation back to near the current levels, Trump continued the exact same criticisms that he had featured in 2021 when inflation peaked at 9%. More than anything else, Trump’s focus on Biden has conditioned voters to give any sitting President more blame than he would otherwise receive for any economic problems. In addition, Trump’s bewildering actions on tariffs are a giant “kick me” sign regarding affordability. Spanbarger and Sherrill have already proven that this will be the issue in November. Any Democratic candidate who ignores that doesn’t belong on the ballot.
The cautious Cook Report has just upgraded Democratic prospects in eighteen separate Congressional races. There are now two more Senate races where Democrats could surprise. Texas was on very few lists until now, when it has become clear that far right Attorney General Ken Paxton could win the Republican primary, unseating Republican Senator John Cornyn. This creates a better chance to win much of the center with popular Congressman James Talarico. Even more surprising, Alaska is in play. Former Democratic member of Congress Mary Peltola is running even with Republican Senator Dan Sullivan.
Very Slowly, the Supreme Court Slowly Asserts Itself
Trump has already decided how we will respond to an upcoming mixed Supreme Court decision on tariffs. He will rail at the Court and at the decision which will establish that he has overstepped his powers through unlawful use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, which requires that the tariffed country represent an “unusual or extraordinary threat” to national security or our economy,
Since in some instances the President has other, lesser authority that he can employ, the Court is likely to require the U.S. Court for International Trade to sort out the permissible actions. They will also set up a process where the government will have to give refunds to certain importers. However sensible or even Trump-tolerant the Court’s decision turns out to be, it will be broadly viewed as a significant departure from the Court’s approach to Trump.
Many of Trump’s opponents have misunderstood the Court’s 6-3 ruling forcing Trump to remove the National Guard from Illinois, California and Oregon. Not without some justification, they think that Trump will just find another way to get the National Guard into places the Governors don’t want them. However, the Supreme Court has set the bar way too high even for Trump.
There are a score of more cases where the Supreme Court stayed a lower court ruling against an unconstitutional action by Trump. In all the lower court ruled the plaintiffs are likely to succeed on the merits of their claims. These cases are moving through the system. Plus, by summer we can expect the Supreme Court to have brushed away Trump’s challenge to birthright citizenship and his attempt to fire Federal Reserve Board member Lisa Cook.
The way not to make progress against Trump is to devote precious time and thought to impeachment, or to believe the countless AI generated social media fake posts in which Pete Buttigieg, running backs, folk singers and selected actors berate whichever Republican elected official. Instead, let’s do these three things.
1) Be a Founding Donor for Mary Peltola
As Democrats have been trying to figure out how to win back Senate seats in Ohio, North Carolina, Maine and Texas (and protect seats in Michigan and Georgia) Alaska has emerged as an exciting new take-it-back chance. Former Congresswoman Mary Peltola can beat incumbent Dan Sullivan. Early money is like yeast. Let’s all give her some now.
2) Talk to John Fetterman Right Away
Unfortunately, Democratic Senator John Fetterman of Pennsylvania has decided to add his voice to Trump’s about Greenland, discussing a U.S. land acquisition, citing the precedent of the Louisiana Purchase. Call John Fetterman today at (202) 224-4254 and remind him of the existence of indigenous people (Greenlanders) and other sovereign nations (Denmark). Tell him he’s forgotten who we are as a people, or who we are supposed to be.
3) Get on the Street
Peaceful protests are an important part of this movement. Keep track and participate in what is happening locally, where organizers and sponsors will vary. Because of its strong single message, pay special attention to the No Kings Alliance, which will sponsor a gigantic multi-city rally on July 4. The perfect date, no?
Every week, in every way possible, we put ourselves in play. We got rid of him once and we have to do it again, so we will.
David Harrison
Bainbridge Island , Washington