#70: Help American Voters Remember their Core Beliefs

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It turns out that selecting a President among all candidates not named Trump is going to be a lot of work. Of course, it is well worth the effort.

What’s happened so far is all fine. Rhapsodies over individual candidates might ultimately emerge, but not just yet. No particular outcome is inevitable. There is no team of elite power brokers orchestrating the way it is going to turn out. Its unpredictably is part of its charm. Six months ago, few would have predicted that Mayor Pete would be displacing Beto O’Rourke, or that Elizabeth Warren would be gently pushing Bernie Sanders aside, or even that Kamala Harris would be getting a lot more traction than fellow Senators Gillibrand, Booker and Klobuchar. Months from now our expectations may well have been scrambled again.

Together we have developed unprecedented focus. There is more access to more candidates, more volunteer efforts to engage in, more donations to be made, and more things to dwell on or obsess over. With all of those good things comes two dangers, that we will be conclusion-jumpers, and that we will be captured by someone else’s faulty narrative.

In the first instance, we are prone to wishful thinking. No, Daniel Epstein’s arrest is not going to bring down his former buddy Trump, as much as we may wish it so. With the resignation of British ambassador Kim Darroch for privately informing his government that Trump is incompetent and inept, it would have been fair for us to jump to a conclusion that the secret is finally out. But, to foreign governments and not just a few Republican Senators (in private), it hasn’t been a secret at all. Darroch was stating the obvious. He is an extremely bright, well-educated, well-spoken man. Stupidly and wackily, Trump called Darroch stupid and wacky,

More dangerous than wishful thinking is fully accepting the narrative of any single pundit, AOC’s tweets, or the collective wisdom of one’s Facebook friends. On issues like Medicare for All, what has emerged is overreaching statements like “If that many candidates raised their hands on this issue at the debate, then we can’t win.” But we are just at the start of sorting out these issues together. What we have now in a very predictably messy Democratic way is not a pitched battle between liberalism and progressivism, as suggested by everyone’s favorite faulty narrative. Instead we will have is a fair discussion of how to protect and improve upon the health care guarantees of the Affordable Care Act, and how to keep from diminishing the ways the existing indispensable Medicare program serves seniors.

It’s a faulty narrative because considering all the issues in play, one would be hard pressed to take the Democratic candidates and put them on a moderate to liberal to progressive continuum, except of course for Bernie Sanders. That’s a good thing, and it makes John Hickenlooper’s use of the word socialism even more self-serving and ridiculous and unacceptable. All of these candidates are versed well in their own arguments regarding their electability. Let’s give them a chance to articulate their claims. In the meantime, let’s expect them all to understand every day that among others there are four voter cohorts we need them to attend to, and ways to make certain we don’t leave anyone un-reached.

• The all-important independent voters, who fled Republican Congressional candidates in flocks last November. They are wanting a President who is more like a President. Since they themselves consider both parties a possibility, they don’t like Trump’s daily vilification of the other side. A large number of these voters are suburban women, and rightly or rightly they have concluded that Trump is predatory toward women. The gender gap remains huge. Our candidates must make certain that voters know that the protection of the right to choose will depend entirely on their vote in 2020.

• Latino citizens make up more than 11% of the electorate. This will be the fastest growing cohort for some time, which has led to the resisters giving considerable support to voter registration efforts. Over 70% of these voters vote for the Democratic candidate, which is high but considerably lower than the percentage of African-Americans who vote for Democrats. Still, in the 2018 Congressional elections, nine Republican seats were taken by Democrats in districts where Latinos are at least 10% of the voters. Border issues are important regardless of how politically consequential they are or aren’t,, but even more powerful politically is providing a path to citizenship for Dreamers. We have to make certain our candidates don’t see DACA as yesterday’s issue. It will be back before all of us because the Supreme Court will hear oral arguments in November, and it gives our candidates an important chance to spotlight Trump’s intransigence and mean-spiritedness. 

• Young voters aged 18-30 are more open to Medicare for All provisions that would eliminate supplemental coverage than are voters over 65, who have experienced the benefits of such coverage. As stated above, this will need some sorting out. Young voters got the message in 2018 that elections matter, voting at a higher rate in an off-year election than any time since 1954. Reversing Trump on climate change is a huge motivation for these voters, which will not be difficult for our candidates to remember. This is also the cohort that would be happiest to see the Democratic ticket include generational change, which some of candidates can offer and others cannot.

• Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania were supposed to save us from Donald Trump in 2016. Obviously, other things were happening like the Russian intervention, but there is no question we slipped among blue collar voters. The more we remember the firewall was breached and rebuild it, the better off we will be in November 2020. The emphasis by our candidates on strengthening the middle class can resonate, but only when the economic message reflects the authentic nature and experience of the candidate, which is something we can check when we are doing our choosing. Happily, we have new leadership in these states which will help us boost our presidential candidates. We took all three Governor’s races in 2018. Tom Wolf won by 840,000 votes in Pennsylvania, Gretchen Whitmer by 400,000 votes in Michigan, and Tony Evers squeaked by incumbent Scott Walker in Wisconsin. All won the blue collar vote.

As missive #69 emphasized, the Democratic position is favored over the Republican position on all of the major issues to be debated in 2020. It’s good to make the candidates dig deeper on these matters. Have we forgotten that deciding what the government is going to do with and for the people is the essence of democracy? But, it’s also good to remember the basics. If permitted, Donald Trump would take away choice from every woman in America, take away Affordable Care Act coverage from 20 million people, leave a million Dreamers subject to deportation, and refuse to defend the planet we all inhabit from climate change. Understanding these simple truths drives us every day, and calls for us to do these three things:

1) Sadly, Give Up on Susan Collins
	We must take back the Senate for dozens of reasons, most urgently to protect the constitutional rights of women in the next Supreme Court nomination. Unfortunately, as hard as Susan Collins has tried to moderate Trump’s worst positions, she twisted herself into a pretzel to back Brett Kavanaugh, even though she herself is pro-choice. She is a vote for Mitch McConnell as Majority Leader. We have a much better chance of taking back the Senate if we win Maine, so we need to thank Susan Collins for trying and send her home. Rather than spending the next year waiting out the primaries, we need to boost the best candidate right now, Maine’s Democratic Speaker of the House Sara Gideon. Why not give up coffee for a week, send the money to Sara Gideon, and let the prospect of taking back the Senate keep you awake?
2) Get College Campuses Ready for the Fall
	Registering to vote has been revolutionized. Online registration is possible in almost all states. National organizations like Rock the Vote can tell you everything you need to know about registering.  You can send high school kids the link as an 18th birthday present. You can also pay some attention to what four-year colleges and community colleges are doing institutionally to include voter registration opportunities as a part of the orientation experience of incoming students. Start by identifying the college nearest you. Search online for the name and email of their president and write her or him asking for a description of what they are doing about aiding in registration. Depending on their answer, help them find and utilize the tools they need, or notify the nearest Indivisible group regarding their current shortcomings.
3) Win a State Legislative Majority
	Virginia, Louisiana and Mississippi are holding state legislative elections this fall. In all three states, it will be the last legislative election before the post 2020 census redistricting, so the stakes are huge. There are several organizations bent upon flipping the Virginia legislature and making inroads in the other two states, but Sister Districts is a premier effort. If you are out of money, they have multiple other ways you can help. If you have some money, give that to them too. Virginia is an extraordinary opportunity. Republicans hold a 21-19 majority in the Senate and a 51-48 majority in the House. Democrats have benefited from some recent court-mandated redistricting. If you do one thing today, get involved in what will be happening in November 2019 in Virginia.

There are a lot of people trying to figure out what Donald Trump is going to do next and working hard to prevent the worst of it. There is an enormously effective way to put this awful blot on our nation’s history behind us--- a huge victory at the ballot box on November 3, 2020. It can’t come too soon.

David Harrison
Bainbridge Island, Washington

#64: These are Things Presidents Do Not Do

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When you are trying to save your country, you can’t get anything done without your equilibrium. Reaching an unbalancing level of despair over the Trump presidency is understandable, given its daily wounds to the soul. Still, we understand that every single day we can shake off numbness, use anger to fuel new energy, and turn any personal floundering into a Trump-defeating relentlessness. We have been at this a very long time. But, since flagging has never been an option, let’s stand straight and tall and let’s get to it.

William Barr’s contortions will be paused briefly. Before he starts up again, let’s see where we are. Imagine if the president of the United States was thought by some to be hiding a highly destructive explosive device. When worries about the existence of such a device come up, the president says anyone who even suggests that such a device exists such be prosecuted, that no such device exists, and that it is all a hoax. From that point on, he attacks anyone, anywhere who even hints that such a device should be looked for.

Then he takes it further, going to heretofore unimaginable lengths. He takes ten specific actions to impede anyone and everyone who is either looking for the device or wondering whether he knows where it is. He rages and insults justice for two years. He lies openly and consistently. He makes up things, fires people and asks intelligence officials to break the law in service to him.

At the end, investigators find the device, and they detail the ten ways in which the president willfully obstructed the search for it. And then they say they cannot say for sure that notwithstanding every single lie and posterior-protecting, government-assaulting, evidence-obscuring step that this president ever knew where the device was in the first place! 

So, if that is the legal judgement, so be it, but in no way is it the judgement of the people as to what a president is permitted to do, or what he is excused for doing. Each of Trump’s ten obstructions are unthinkable. Each provides us the opportunity for a referendum on what this country is in danger of becoming, or, better yet, a referendum on how we can prevent such an outcome.
The ten extremely well documented steps of obstruction will be with us for the next 19 months. Hearings will be held, and further disclosures will emerge. While we and the candidates we support attend to an agenda for America’s future, we will not ever set aside these stains on our country. 

These are things that presidents do not do, not now, nor in the past, nor in the future. We will make certain the presentation of this evidence drives us further and harder. It will result in more of everything--- more voter registrations, more support of candidates, more personal involvement in the 2020 election, more voting, and the most gratifying celebration on November 3rd.

With the Mueller report release we will each pledge to do something special this week to signal where we are steering the country. Trump’s now well documented flaunting of the rule of law will grow the resistance.

The report and the situation can’t be summarized better than the effort put forward by the New York Times, first broadly explaining the report and its impact and then providing clear and compelling and mind-bending excerpts. Anyone wondering what it all adds up should treat the Times excerpts as a must read. In the simplest terms, following are the ten obstructions, several of which would even have raised Richard Nixon’s eyebrows. They are also articulated in greater detail by Politico. 

1. Asking FBI director James Comey to end the investigation of Michael Flynn, using the all-important “he’s a good guy” exoneration argument
2. Sitting on Air Force One and drafting a statement saying that Donald Trump Jr.’s meeting with the Russians was primarily about adoptions. Would that it had been the case for the 400,000 or so children in Russian orphanages.
3. Firing James Comey. First Trump outrageously claimed that the firing had to do with Comey’s inappropriate announcement about Hilary Clinton a week before the 2016 election. Then he told NBC’s Lester Holt, “I decided to just do it. You know this Russia thing about Trump and Russia is a made up story.”
4. Demanding that White House Counsel Don McGahn fire Robert Mueller, causing McGahn to refuse to do so and to clean out his office. Telling McGahn to claim Mueller had a conflict of interest, which was false.
5. Asking Corey Lewandowski to tell Attorney General Jeff Sessions to announce that the special investigation was “very unfair” and that the president had done nothing wrong. Throughout Sessions’ service, Trump believed that the Attorney General should act as his personal attorney.
6. Demanding that Jeff Sessions “un-recuse” himself so that he could exert influence over Robert Mueller on Trump’s behalf.
7. Asking McGahn and other aides to disavow the account that he sought to fire Mueller, thus telling them to perjure themselves in front of federal investigators.
8. Maintaining publicly that there was no Russian role in the election while privately seeking more Wikileaks disclosures of emails hacked by the Russians.
9. Passing word to attorneys for Michael Flynn of the president’s “warm feelings” toward Flynn after Flynn had agreed to provide information to Mueller. Trump’s personal counsel asked Flynn’s attorney for a “heads up” if Flynn was giving the government incriminating information.
10. Changing from praising Michael Cohen’s conduct when he lied to Congress about a possible Trump Tower in Moscow, to his personal counsel discussing a pardon with Cohen, and finally to calling Cohen a “rat” when he provided testimony to Mueller.

It isn’t as though it is difficult to figure out what to do now. We won back the House of Representatives in part because it would enable us to go beyond Bill Barr would have us do and dig deeper than Donald Trump would have us dig. We know that Jerome Nadler, Adam Schiff and Elijah Cummings and their committees are accepting this obligation. Even though we have other business to attend to, we are not going to walk away from the details of a 400-page report that details a sitting president’s daily contempt for the law, or from the 14 separate prosecutorial referrals that are being acted upon. We will not forget today’s image of a foolish and immoral man (regrettably, our president) with crumbs on his face and his hand permanently stuck in the cookie jar.

So let’s do these three things, making them especially intensive in recognition of what we learned from Robert Mueller:

1) Put North Carolina Back in Play
	Republicans in North Carolina are more vulnerable than ever now that the Mueller report has been released. The unfortunate collateral damage is being suffered by Senator Richard Burr. Chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, Burr had previously been praised by Democrat Mark Warner for reaching across the aisle on the Russia investigation. Now Mueller’s report maintains that Burr passed on to the White House sensitive information from James Comey regarding which White House aides the FBI was investigating. The Raleigh News Observer has already indicated its displeasure. Burr is up for re-election in 2022.  Facing a strong Democratic challenge in 2020 is Republican Senator Thom Tillis. Tillis was very public about his opposition to Trump’s executive order on the wall, since it usurped Congressional power. He was scheduled to vote that way until the last minute, when the Republican Party threatened him with a challenge in the 2020 primary. He caved in. He is an apologist for Trump on Mueller matters.  We can pick up a Senate seat in 2020 (helping to take back the Senate) and again in 2022. Donations to a war chest for the winner of the 2020 Democratic primary are growing. Act Blue has a way you can donate to this fund now. One could decide to donate a dollar for each of Trump’s abuses of his office, but who has that kind of money?
2) Remember the Lawyers
	In fourteen separate instances, the legal action related to the findings of the Mueller investigation will be carried out by federal prosecutors who have received referrals from Robert Mueller. There remains a strong need for lawyers outside of government to step forward and make certain that the public’s interests are protected. The American Civil Liberties Union is an excellent investment in this regard. An uncommon litigator has emerged to expand those interests. The Electronic Privacy Information Center is normally focused on such issues as Facebook violations of consumer privacy. In this case, they have been a valuable proponent for the public release of the report with the fewest possible redactions.
3) Understanding What it May All Come Down To
	Right now, the likelihood is that resisters will emerge victorious on November 3, 2020. Trump’s disapproval rating is mired in the low 40's, and we achieved a great start last November. Further, the Mueller report shows a manic president pushing every obstruction button he could find, and more than a few collusion buttons. Ironically, he is thought to be in a better legal position because aides devised ways to ignore his orders. Even as he sought to collude and obstruct, he couldn’t always get the job done! One more knock on his leadership skills? Maybe the Democratic candidates will ding each other more than necessary and maybe by summer of 2020 the polls get a little closer than we want. We can invest in preventing that situation now. Signing up new voters (especially those in the age group 18-30) is not just a matter of sending a check to an organization. Forty states offer online registration. That means in effect that you can become your own personal registrar. You can make it a habit to ask people you know whether they registered. You can get them their online link and check on them to make sure they got it done.  A number of organizations provide the necessary links for online registration, including Ballotpedia. You can even go one step further, getting large civic minded organizations you know to partner with Rock the Vote to create a customized voter registration page on their websites.

If you are feeling the urge to put this all down for a little while, read the Mueller report excerpts in the New York Times, or read the whole report. We were never in need of a bit more motivation. But just in case we were wondering whether the threats to our country are so huge as to be worthy of our efforts, we just got the depressing but energizing answer.

David Harrison
Bainbridge Island, Washington

#60: Motivate Republican Senators to Get Right with the Constitution

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If we aren’t careful, we could talk ourselves into the wrong points of view. That would leave us less powerful at a time that we need to gather and utilize our power.

For instance, we could hear that the unenthusiasm of Queens residents for Amazon’s 25,000 jobs is some sort of indicator for how liberals and progressives think about jobs and economic growth in their own communities. But the fact is that Amazon intended to replace that community, not just bring it new economic opportunity. And for Queens and New York to have demonstrated their appreciation for having their community change dramatically, they would have needed to accede to a huge corporate assistance tax package.

We could hear that the Green New Deal is a socialist dream that will eliminate the support of independent voters for a Democratic candidate. But what it represents is the very beginning of an aspirational discussion. Its ideas will be modified and dealt with separately, not as an omnibus bill. Nonetheless, it is one part of an overdue exploration of how we can together boldly change the way America addresses (or ignores) its environmental future.

Similarly, Medicare for All is the platform for big believers and big dreamers, trying to confront the continued malfunctions of the American health care system, improved but by no means fixed by the Affordable Care Act. It represents the start of a new conversation, not the end of one.

Figuring out which Democrat to nominate for president is a huge decision. We can’t get that done by determining who has the best slogans or even the most combative attitude toward Donald Trump. What we most need is this marketplace of ideas, including any number of ideas that have been hidden or besmirched since Republicans took over the Congress in 2010. We can’t pick a president without understanding some of the finer points of how they differ from the other people who want to be president. We have more than a year to figure this out.

Policy ideas also force us to understand the distinctions between show horses and work horses, between elected officials who are authentically seeking reform and those who are too fully aware of the camera. Happily, Thomas Perez and the Democratic Party leadership are crafting rules for genuine televised debates where ideas are exchanged. The New Hampshire primary and Iowa caucuses will be great testing ground for which candidates have ways of thinking that are especially compelling, since success in these states depends upon meeting at length with small groups whose members ask pointed questions.

Since several of the candidates are Senators, we need to be able to sort out legislative proposals offered by Democratic leadership or by candidates to understand whether they have any particular significance.

1. Some proposals are meant only to stake out a position. Elizabeth Warren has proposed a wealth tax of 2% on assets over $50 million. The revenue would be used to fund child care support. There will be other candidates weighing in on how to assign a greater tax burden for the rich. None of their specific proposals will be advanced in the House, but they are useful for determining where the candidates stand, and how their position varies from that of other candidates.
2. Some proposals are intentionally broad in scope and are intended to grow a movement. This is the significance of both Medicare for All and the Green New Deal. They are aspirational and designed to lead over time to monumental change in the way things are done. At this point, they should spur debate, not end it. That’s why several Democratic presidential candidates endorsing the Green New Deal is dismaying. These candidates should be contributing to its design, not pretending it should be passed tomorrow.
3. Of special interest at this juncture are proposals that are being crafted to pass the House and be sent to the Senate, partly as a strategy to hold the House and seize the Senate in 2020. These proposals will be important legislative approaches on issues like voting rights, prescription drugs, and better protection for those with pre-existing conditions. They are not expected to become law, because Trump can veto them. They are being designed to either win over the four or five Republican Senators needed for passage (prior to the Trump veto), or to elicit political damage for the 12 or 13 Republican Senators thought to be vulnerable in November, 2020. As versions of them are debated in the Senate, they will also provide a window on the passion and creativity of candidates/Senators Gillibrand, Klobuchar, Booker, Sanders, Brown and Harris.
4. In a few instances, the House version will represent a major element in a legislative compromise which is likely to become law. This is the case with the recent bill that Trump bitterly signed and could happen with prescription drugs where both parties are committed to passing legislation.

The current dispute over Trump’s declaration of a national emergency falls squarely into category three. We will need at least four Republican votes in the Senate to temporarily block the declaration but would have no way of getting the twenty Republican votes we would need to override a subsequent Trump veto. Even so, it is important that we get the Senate (as well as the House) to go on record against the emergency declaration. This is why. It is a made up emergency. The emergency powers that Congress granted were never intended to be used for an appropriations dispute. Even more critically (and ultimately of greatest interest to the Supreme Court) it would represent a massive usurpation of the powers of the purse reserved to Congress in the Constitution.

Trump is doing improv. Mexico will pay for it until they aren’t paying for it. It is already being built but we need to start building. He could have waited but he needed the emergency declaration to do it now. The truth is that if Trump had not turned on Rush Limbaugh on a certain night in December, none of this would have happened. It is not worthy of the country that we love and the democracy that we defend.

So, we need to do these three things now:

1) Put Pressure on Republican Senators to Get Right With the Constitution
	Nate Silver’s 538 has done an excellent job of charting where Republican Senators stand on Trump’s declaration. He counts six Republican Senators as opposed. These include Lamar Alexander of Tennessee, who is retiring, and Rand Paul of Kentucky, who has his own way of thinking about most everything and may not be persuadable through any pleas we can muster. That leaves six Senators who have already said they are opposed to the declaration and need to be helped to maintain their resolve. Let’s go in the side door by calling as many of the main district offices of these six as we can. Please tell these six that they are being called upon to protect the fundamentals of governing in America, and that you are proud that so far they have stood for what is right: Ben Sasse of Nebraska: 402 550 8040 Lisa Murkowski of Alaska: 907 271 3735 Susan Collins of Maine: 207 780 3575 Marco Rubio of Florida: 305 418 8553 Thom Tillis of Nebraska: 704 509 9087 Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania: 215 241 1090 Then, as we work through our calls, we will realize that we are getting good at this, and we will decide to call a Senator who has expressed concerns, who is on the fence, and who is very worried about getting re-elected a year from November: Cory Gardner of Colorado: 305 418 8553
2) Help with Recruitment to Take Back the Senate
	We already know the blueprint, since we used it to take back the House in 2018. Coming up, we have a much more favorable map, with 23 Republican Senators up for re-election, and with up to 13 seats worthy of being heavily contested. Last time, we made massive gains among younger voters, independents, and suburban voters. We did that by letting Trump be Trump, by recruiting excellent candidates and by making millions of small contributions. We have an excellent candidate to recruit. We almost got Stacey Abrams over the top in her effort to be Governor of Georgia, but we were stymied by voter suppression. Now she is seriously considering running for the Senate in 2020. She needs our encouragement. You can start by getting her mobile alerts.
3) Make Certain Legal Action is Relentlessly Pursued
	The first thing to accomplish on the legal front is for multiple parties to file actions in federal courts challenging the emergency declaration. Eventually the cases will be consolidated. This is the rare case where “all the way to the Supreme Court” will surely come to pass, because the Supreme Court justices will not permit such an unusual and important case to be resolved at the federal appellate level. Among the emerging litigants, the consortium of 16 states and the American Civil Liberties Union already loom large. The ACLU is litigating on behalf of the Southern Border Communities Coalition. This Coalition includes sixty organizations serving border communities from Texas to California. It’s worth following and boosting, because we all will be pursuing fair and just border policies for some time to come.

If it weren’t such a dismaying and even frightening time, you could say all of this is exciting, no? We don’t have to worry for even a minute about being able to find consequential work to do. It’s there before us. It wouldn’t be overstating to say a nation hangs in the balance.

David Harrison
Bainbridge Island, Washington

#59: Let’s Get Out of the Bleachers and Back onto the Field

Thank you for continuing to share these messages with your friends, if you are not already on our mailing list, please click here to be added to our list. You can also follow me on Facebook where you can read and share these messages. The more people we can reach, the more we contribute to this growing movement. We share these posts on our blog, A Path Forward to November 3, 2020, every two weeks, which means there will be a total of 100 missives before the Presidential election of 2020, in which our country will select a whole new course.

We are focused on politics and government, and we are worried about how our nation will recover from recent wounds and prevent new ones. Even after the high of November 6 when we flipped the House and presented Donald Trump with a fully re-empowered Nancy Pelosi, some days bring us down, as Trump’s made up stories, bullying, full scale con job, self-delusions and dangerous actions overwhelm.

In the face of all this, one would think that there would be no retreating from the front lines of political action to the sidelines of political observation. The rewards of the monumental efforts of the resistance are so evident, how could any of us step back? What happens is that necessarily we have let life intervene. We feed our souls, earn a wage, tend to our relationships, and immerse ourselves in the natural world. We really don’t have a choice about doing these other things if we are to stay strong and sane.

But if we get too far up in the stands, we will end up thinking that watching Rachel Maddow or Shields and Brooks or podcasts is some kind of substitute for action. Which it isn’t. Letting the rest of the resistance do the resisting for a while erodes the required and immense scale of our effort. It can’t be maintained if we fill up the bleachers.

What can we do now if we stay on the field? We can give early money because it is like yeast. State legislators will not be sufficiently focused on fighting voter suppression unless we make it so. Senators who could cast an important swing vote have to know that we are out here. In 2019, we must recruit, vet and support candidates, register voters, and welcome new 18-year olds. There are postcards to be sent, places to be, information to be examined, and passion kindled. It is the gargantuan scale of our effort in 2017 and 2018 that underscores the vital work that has to be done. Which of us wants to take November 2020 for granted? Perhaps we have already learned the risk of that.

We can take advantage of the notable, continued deterioration of Trump’s support in the country. That slow slide is evidenced not just by the polls but by the tiny but still altogether new steps by Republican Senators. The six voting to re-open government gave the Schumer/Pelosi contingent more votes than the Trump/McConnell approach, and that outcome was an element in Trump giving in. Cheers to Susan Collins, Mitt Romney, Lisa Murkowski, Cory Gardner, Johnny Isakson, and Lamar Alexander. The next step for them is to build upon their resolution in the Senate on the Middle East and demonstrate to Trump that their party exists outside of him. Or does it?

On the field, we can treat the policy debates within the Democratic Party as necessary grist. Why not understand the merits (and demerits) of the possible elements of Medicare for All? We can have that debate and defend Affordable Care Act protections of pre-existing conditions in the same year. Is it necessary for Medicare for All proponents to jettison the considerable employer-provided insurance that is still out there? What would happen to the programs and conditions under which current Medicare recipients function? At this point let’s advocate alternative approaches to major health care reform, rather than being expected to swear a blood oath. Are we out of practice in demonstrating how ideas are developed and elevated? 

Media emphasis on the political battles themselves obscure the weight of the underlying ideas regarding what government should do. As much as we extol Nancy Pelosi’s strategizing, her refusal to counter-offer during the shutdown could have been politically damaging and unsuccessful. It didn't turn out that way because the American people had not bought into the idea that the wall is necessary, and no Trump warnings and pronouncements changed their minds.

So, since the actual ideas matter, it is time to move aggressively to help disabuse Howard Schultz of the notion that he will run for president. Is there a single passion or policy proposal that Howard Schultz holds dear, other than the desire to be elected? If what has happened to motivate him to run is the danger Trump presents to America, why would he heighten that danger? Our collective disapproval should be made clear to him for as long as it takes. 

Then we can turn to the best part of the election process. We have an extremely healthy and growing field of candidates. Because Democrats don’t have “winner take all” primaries it is going to be hard for any top tier candidate to open up a delegate lead. All the more reason to dig deep into candidate positions, and to not get fully taken by “liberal” and “progressive” labels. Because of the detail and nuance in their policy positions, it would be impossible to reliably place these candidates on a political continuum. So let’s make a point to understand candidates beyond the information that is most readily available.

After unsuccessfully running Al Gore, John Kerry and Hilary Clinton from Trump’s generation, let’s go younger and fresher. That might allow us to lay down a new case for how America can move forward, and keep us from having to promote a candidate who is already fully defined. However much we love them, or don’t love them, that would make us less interested in Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, and Elizabeth Warren. And let’s require our candidates to know something about the Constitution and the management of government. Kamala Harris, Sherrod Brown, Cory Booker and Amy Klobuchar all had state or local executive branch positions before heading to the Senate. We can win in 2020 without the vote of a single Trump supporter. Nonetheless let’s select someone who has superior communication skills, who has a story to tell and knows how to tell it. As an example, here’s what Kamala Harris accomplished with her roll out.

We must set a personal standard for ourselves that demands meaningful political engagement every single week. Right now, there are three things we can do:

1) Shut Down the Shutdown
	Trump is still in a corner with regard to the wall. When Nancy Pelosi says there isn’t going to be any money for the wall, it is not a flexible position. She doesn’t have to agree to a wall, so she won’t. The only possible compromise that Senate Appropriations veterans Pat Leahy and Richard Shelby could possibly come up with is a few hundred miles of fencing, coupled with budget increases for technology and judges and some sort of “humanitarian” assistance. Trump’s choice will then be either to 1) pretend such a deal is a victory for him when everyone else will know that it is not, or 2) declare an emergency under the National Emergencies Act. That would set up not only a court battle but a likely legislative show down because the act provides an opportunity for Congress to reject the emergency order.  If Pelosi engineers such a vote in the House, McConnell would be hard pressed to defend Trump in the resultant vote in Senate. Senators take a dim view of the expansion of presidential powers, and they suspect that there will be a Democratic president sometime in the not distant future who might employ such an expansion. It’s definitely time for some calls to Republican Senators reminding them that building the wall is not an emergency and that it is inappropriate for them to countenance the President using these emergency powers. It is not out of the question that we would get the eight more votes from Republican Senators we need beyond the six named above who already voted to reopen the government. Please call these three, who worry about the expansion of presidential powers: John Thune of South Dakota (202) 224-2321 Ben Sasse of Nebraska (202) 224-4224 John Kennedy of Louisiana (202) 224-4623
2) Persuade Howard Schultz to Do the Right Thing
	There is nothing wrong with polling expert Nate Silver saying that Democrats are incorrect to automatically assume that Howard Schultz’ possible candidacy would be a giant gift to Donald Trump or (for that matter) any Republican candidate. The thing is, given the existing malfunctioning presidency, why even think of taking this risk? This is serious business having to do with the future of our country. This has nothing to do with the possible benefits of a third party in America. All this particular quest is about is a man with money and time on his hands trying to find a way to run for President, now that he has decided he can’t succeed in the Democratic primary process. Right now, the Howard Schultz website is his pre-announcement campaign center. There are seven upcoming book tour appearances and more to come after that. It’s time to go to one of his appearances and stay outside with a Don’t Run sign. The more we can sustain the narrative that millions of people are intent on Howard Schultz not running, the less likely he is to run. You could also use the existing site to email him your feelings on these matters, but you would have to sign up first, exposing yourself to entreaties.
3) Now that Federal Workers are Getting Paid, Who Else is Out There?
	When you are living paycheck to paycheck, it is a big hardship to go without pay, even if you know that ultimately you will be compensated for that pay period. The media did a good job of underscoring this misery, and Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross did a good job of showing that the Trump administration knows nothing of any such hardship. It’s a positive that many of these 800,000 workers have good jobs. It is also a positive to remember after the shutdown is over that many million more Americans don’t have any such job or any immediate chance of getting one. At the core of poverty battling initiatives is the Earned Income Tax Credit (which supporters have re-branded as the Working Families Tax Credit.) At the federal level and in 29 states, this tax credit boosts the take home pay generated by lower wage jobs. It’s time to check your state and see how it is doing in providing a generous credit. That can generate some questions you would want to ask your state legislators.

It is in the nature of collective action that you could get swept up by a group. They could accomplish great things while you are cheering them on. You could be thrilled with the results, even if you didn’t end up contributing very much to the joint effort. In that case, you are a “free rider.” Or maybe you get in a group seeking great things, but which ultimately does not achieve the desired result because everyone thinks everyone else is going to do the hard work. This would be regrettable, and it is preventable.

David Harrison
Bainbridge Island, Washington

#58: This is What We Will Do to Take Back the Senate

Thank you for continuing to share these messages with your friends, if you are not already on our mailing list, please click here to be added to our list. You can also follow me on Facebook where you can read and share these messages. The more people we can reach, the more we contribute to this growing movement. We share these posts on our blog, A Path Forward to November 3, 2020, every two weeks, which means there will be a total of 100 missives before the Presidential election of 2020, in which our country will select a whole new course.

It was a week after the November 2018 election when the extent of the victory by the resistance became clear. There was a stunning increase in voter turnout compared to other non-presidential years. Democratic inroads in the suburbs were significant. And thus we won back 40 seats and flipped the House.

There was nothing accidental about any of this. It required unprecedented grass roots campaign activity and financial support. It included dozens of excellent candidates stepping forward who had never intended to run for office and who were motivated by Donald Trump.

Now it falls to all of us to duplicate or even expand on that massive effort and take back the Senate on November 3, 2020. This matters hugely because the Senate provides the sole review of numerous Presidential appointments, including those to the Cabinet and to the Supreme Court. As we know the Supreme Court nomination process puts Roe v. Wade itself at risk. It is not inevitable that it will be overturned, but the very real risk of losing this constitutional guarantee entirely underscores that we must have the Senate majority when Steven Breyer or Ruth Bader Ginsburg retire. The Senate also has extra importance because it has played a more pronounced role than the House in protecting alliances abroad, which Donald Trump has been intent on eviscerating.

Although Doug Jones of Alabama may be the only Democratic Senator who will face re-election problems, Republicans could launch major challenges to Tina Smith in Minnesota and Gary Peters in Michigan. In contrast, there are many states in which Republican Senators are vulnerable. Democrats think they can unseat Cory Gardner in Colorado, Martha McSally in Arizona (where Gabby Giffords’ husband, astronaut Marc Kelly, may run), Susan Collins in Maine, and Thom Tillis in North Carolina. They are eager to challenge Joni Ernst in Iowa, Dan Sullivan in Alaska, David Perdue in Georgia (where Stacey Abrams may run) and Steve Daines in Montana. They may also compete for the seat in Tennessee that will be vacant after the retirement of Republican Lamar Alexander.

That adds up to nine races. Remember how exhilarated you felt after we flipped the House? You can experience that feeling again in less than two years! Beyond these nine, the number of other races which will be competitive depends upon how Donald Trump does between now and then, and how hard we all work. Given that Trump needs to face Mueller and given his shutdown-slip in the polls, we can anticipate a favorable electoral climate. We also fully understand that we must generate massive candidate support. With these motivations, it would behoove this movement to dive into the nine races above, and at the minimum, these three additional states:

• Kansas has a vacant seat due to the impending retirement of Pat Roberts. Democrats are fresh from winning the governorship and a Congressional seat in the Kansas City area, and believe they have a solid chance.

• Republican John Cornyn will likely seek re-election in Texas. Demographics will continue to drive the state toward Democrats. Will Beto O’Rourke be the Democratic candidate?

• How can one not campaign in Kentucky against the soulless service and Trump-tolerating Mitch McConnell? 

We must understand that winning a Senate campaign has notable differences from taking back the Presidency, which is more about national media and less about local organizing. Happily, these Senate races will be a bit more like super-sized House campaigns, for which our postcards, doorbelling, millions of small contributions, voter registration and other ongoing obsessions carried the day.

In the next year, these Senate Republicans will have numerous opportunities to pull away from Trump, or in the alternative to defend the indefensible. It was a recent encouraging sign when eleven Republican Senators challenged the Trump administration, voting to block the removal of sanctions from an oligarch colleague of Putin. Four of these votes came from the politically vulnerable Collins, Daines, Gardner and McSally. But it was more of a shadow of courage, rather than a profile, since they and Mitch McConnell knew all along that they would need 13 Republican votes to help the Democrats prevail. That is, McConnell consented to his caucus members voting their conscience, but would not have been their sweet-hearted uncle if they had found two more votes. The whole episode had value only as a signal of future possibilities.

We must carefully watch the upcoming opportunities for Republicans to either distance themselves from Trump or otherwise be held accountable for not doing so. The first pertains to the theatrics of the budget showdown. The little considered fact is that in December, Republicans in the Senate joined Democrats in passing by voice vote the same set of budget proposals that they now argue are evidence of Schumer’s and Pelosi’s intransigence. These budget proposals would have become law without any shutdown if Trump hadn’t turned on FOX-TV to hear the criticism of Ann Coulter and Rush Limbaugh. So why can’t these Republicans figure out that they were right the first time?

There will be at least two other votes in 2019 that will tell a tale about vulnerable Republican senators. First the Democratic House will send over to the Senate a bill that solidifies protections for Americans with pre-existing conditions. These Affordable Care Act guarantees have been diminished by Trump and the Republican Congress. Second, Nancy Pelosi and her colleagues will figure out a way for the Senate to have to vote on at least modest steps to respond to climate change. This will handily provide each Republican a chance to recognize the existence of the greatest environmental challenge now faced by humankind.

While the government is closed down, let’s work to change government. Taking back the Senate would be nothing but an excellent thing to do. It depends upon our efforts now, not just a year from this fall. Let’s pretend that it is later than it is, so that it never becomes too late.

1) Making Certain People Can Vote in 2020
	There are all sorts of ways in which election laws and rules can diminish and distort the vote. This is one place where vigilance is the price of liberty. Left on their own, state legislatures can throw up new voting roadblocks. The most pernicious of these are voter ID laws. 35 states require the voter to have some sort of identification. The strictest requirement (a photo ID with little or no option) is in force in six states, and can suppress the vote by as much as 10%. The National Conference of State Legislatures details where there are new voter ID efforts.  Other ways to suppress the vote include reducing polling hours or limiting the use of mail ballots. In the face of such threats, Democrats have proposed all-mail ballots and to confront turn-out at an earlier stage, automatic voter registration. Find out what is happening. As all 50 legislatures head into session, it would be good for you to know whether such organizations with local affiliates as the League of Women Voters and the American Civil Liberties Union have an active voting law agenda in your state legislature. You can ask them, or write to your state representative. Another way to find out would be to write the chair or executive director of your state’s Democratic Party. Their answer will provide insight regarding what is going on in the area of voting rights and it will give you a hint as to whether the state party is sleepy or spirited.
2) Understanding the Value of Early Investment
	Grass roots contributions from across the country played an indispensable role in the 2016 elections. We stepped away from our previous time-honored tendencies to underfund our candidates. The instruments are already set up so that we can choose the most promising 2020 Senate races (see above) and invest early in our candidate. The funds go into an Act Blue “district account” that will be transferred to the candidate when she or he is nominated. Act Blue has proven itself to be an effective low cost online funding intermediary. In this case, they have selected the nine races targeted above, and are also seeking funding for four Democratic incumbents. They allow us to pick and choose rather than prescribing a single bundle. Early money is like yeast.
3) Making Food Available to Those Who Need to Eat
	We should be pleased and proud that food banks across America are providing groceries to federal employees who have now missed two paychecks. This is an additional load for these food banks, all of whom already have numerous clients who have employment problems even more serious than those who have Donald Trump as their titular boss. It’s a perfect time to donate food to your local food bank through the systems they have established. You are saying something to Trump and to America by making sure these shelves are filled, and thus are accessible to laid-off workers, and to other hungry people who live in a country that needs to pay more attention.

Well, at least we share one sensibility with Donald Trump. Accounts are that he had no desire or intention to be president, evidenced by the fact that he had no true transition team and underscored by his efforts to create Trump Tower Moscow up until the end of the campaign. For our part, we had no intention or desire for him to be president either… We will get this all done, celebrate when he is out of office, and make certain something like this does not happen again.

David Harrison
Bainbridge Island, Washington