#8: We Have Been Feeling Our Growing Power

Thank you for continuing to help us grow our following. Please continue to help share the word by having your friends email me to be added to our e-blast list, or enroll to receive the same ideas in my Path Forward Blog, or connect with me through Facebook.

It isn’t true that Donald Trump doesn’t know what he wants to do. He does know what he wants to do, he just doesn’t know how to do it, especially in the face of intense opposition.

Ironically, he could have accomplished 80% or so of his apparent goals thus far if he had listened in an all new and improved Trump-like approach, if he organized his administration with considerably more care, and if he reached out to certain concerned Republicans in an all new way. For those of us who have been worried that he might find a workable path forward, there isn’t a lot of chance that workable way will emerge, because he isn’t going to listen, organize or compromise better.

As the opposition of the rest of us intensifies, the breakdown between Trump and Congressional Republicans (especially in the Senate) will grow. That’s because public support matters to those Senators. Their deal was that they would support the Presidential agenda if Trump a) sanded off the edges of his most problematic proposals, and b) maintained sufficient political support to give them some cover.

Trump’s dilemma is that he remembers the crowds of base supporters from his campaign, and he knows what he promised them, and what he promised Steve Bannon. He also knows that it is something different than what he promised the broader set of Republican voters, and what he promised Mitch McConnell. It has become clear he can’t (or won’t?) reconcile those varying demands, especially with no idea how to manage a White House or government, and no one empowered to manage it on his behalf.

The resignation of National Security Advisor Michael Flynn is not a misstep that will be easy to overcome. It will touch off new concerns from Trump’s own party and further embolden the rest of us, who were already feeling our growing power.

Three chairs of major Senate committees are standing in the way of strategies Trump holds dear. Armed Services chair John McCain can’t abide the Russia-United States relationship that Trump, Flynn and others have already implicitly or explicitly promised Vladimir Putin. Read John McCain's extraordinary rebuke of Trump's policies. Foreign Affairs committee chair Bob Corker has been spending his time talking to worried NATO allies and apologizing to Australia. Lamar Alexander, chair of the Committee on Health, Education, Labor and Pensions is going his own way on the issue of repealing and replacing the Affordable Care Act.

Yes, I understand that each of the three is trying to couch their own opposition within the context of Republican orthodoxy. I understand that Republican led “investigations” of issues like the Russian interference in the elections will not necessarily be obsessed with the complete truth. But we are talking about our country here, and whatever line of defense members of Trump’s own party construct is a good thing.

But, of course, it isn’t and won’t be even close to good enough. Because it’s not good enough and won’t ever be, we will flood the town halls hosted by members of Congress this winter and spring. Here’s a first list of those which are scheduled. And, because it isn’t good enough, we will win the 24 seats we need to take back the House in the fall of 2018, which is not so far away.

Here are three things we can do now:

1) Start the Congressional Campaign Efforts Today
	A month ago, none of the major national organizations were comprehending that the House will be in play in 2018. That has changed. Unfortunately, the House Democratic Campaign Committee and some state Democratic Party structures have yet to figure this out, but local groups organized under the rubric of Indivisible are picking up the slack. You can search Indivisible for a group near you that you can join. Chances are a sub-group will already have identified Congressional races which can be put into play to win back the 24 seats and you can choose to put energy and resources in that direction. For my money, Indivisible is still too focused on the tea party approach. Didn’t we already have one too many of those? Still, Indivisible is the best thing going in most parts of the country in terms of local organizing. With the contribution of political scientist Larry Sabato’s center at the University of Virginia, the understanding of which races to target continues to grow. Also, there is some good new analysis about what needs to happen with Trump between now and November 2018 for taking back the House to be possible. Put simply, an improvement in Trump’s low approval ratings would hurt our chances. I don’t think that is going to happen.
2) Plan Ahead on Three Major Issues
	There are three policy debates that are coming up in the next six months which can turn a lot of independent voters away from Trump and away from many of the Republicans in Congress. Our task here is to do a better job of articulating with friends, acquaintances and in letters to the editor and call-in radio shows and town halls and letters to Congress not just what we are against, but what we are for. First, there is the Affordable Care Act. In missive #6 I argued that either way we will win. Either Congress will: • not repeal the law. • repeal it and replace it with provisions that do not diminish coverage in any way. This includes no one of 20 million newly covered people losing their coverage because of the new law, including the 14+ million who gained their coverage through Medicaid expansion in 31 states; and continued protection of people with pre-existing conditions. This (or non-repeal) is the position we must advance. • or, they can repeal it with a wholly inadequate substitute. A major bloc of nearly 50 Republican Congressman organized as the Freedom Caucus are advocating this approach. It would be an awful result which would remove coverage from many millions, but we would win in the long run because Republicans will pay the political price. If it comes to that, we must oppose Democrats providing votes to give Paul Ryan a victory over his party’s own Freedom Caucus. If he ever wants these votes, we can accept no diminishment of the protections of the ACA. Second, coming soon are major debates over the continued sanctions of Russia for their armed intervention in the Ukraine and for intervening in the presidential elections. Here too independent voters will be with us if we aggressively articulate our position of keeping NATO strong, protecting democracies in the Baltics and elsewhere, and advancing democracy over totalitarian rule. As uneven a record as we Americans have had in our democracy, we are still a beacon around the world for self-determination, peaceful transfer of power and advancement of individual rights. Given how much freedom matters, Trump’s implication of equivalence between the US and Russia may be the most outrageous thing that he has said to date. Third, to be covered in the upcoming missive #9 is the emerging debate over tax policy. Trump and Republican leadership are already at odds over taxes on exports. We must prepare for an issue that can dwarf that one- wealth disparity. Any Republican proposal that survives the House will re-distribute wealth from the middle class to the wealthy, and these lines must be drawn.
3) Continue to Boost Non-Profits That Count
	Groups like the Southern Poverty Law Center, the American Civil Liberties Union and Planned Parenthood have done well as thinking people with access to resources contemplate how to defend against what Donald Trump could do to America. We all have budgets and we will likely all be pushed to donate by nonprofits every day through the entire period of the Trump dysfunction. How do we sort out the ones to favor with our checks and the money we can find under the sofa cushion? Here are some criteria: 1) In which area(s) do we feel that the republic is most threatened by Trump? 2) In which area(s) do we feel that nonprofit organizations are critical in responding to those threats? For instance, we may well feel that Trump's comments on NATO will threaten the Baltics, but our best defense against that is likely to be the Senate and they will do that one without requiring our money. That may also be true regarding the emoluments clause and Trump’s conflicts of interest. It could be this will all be decided in the courts and the litigation will proceed whether we all donate or not. On the other side of the ledger, there is no chance of fighting back against the anti-environment executive orders without effective, concerted efforts of environmental organizations, especially since environmental statutes give Trump more discretion than he has in other areas. 3) Within an area of threat, are we more interested in sustaining local services or supporting national advocacy? 4) What do we think about the tactics of the group that is asking for our money? Can we see how they may be more effective than another organizations? Are their requests for our help well structured? Is their case for getting more resources a good one? Have we read of their successes? Do they seem to be overstating their impact? Do they have any special niche, like Southern Poverty Law Center has with regard to hate groups? 5) Do we favor groups that have strong grassroots ties? Would we rather give to organizations that have representation or activity at the local level?

We are gaining in our knowledge and we now know that we can do this. As always, let’s value how we can share information and ideas with each other, and how we can strengthen each other. I would appreciate whatever you can do to add to the list for this blog/e-blast/Facebook post. Thanks for staying with me.

David Harrison
Bainbridge Island, Washington

#7: The Opposition We Have Mounted is Huge

Our following continues to grow. Please help share the word by having your friends email me to be added to our e-blast list, or enroll to receive the same ideas in my Path Forward Blog, or connect with me through Facebook.

Let’s consider the good news! Americans are getting a civics lesson each day. With regard to executive orders or announced plans, can Donald Trump do that? Who could possibly stop that? What does that court action mean? When a Republic Senator criticizes a specific Trump proposal, when is that significant?

If we want the republic to be strong after this is all over, we cannot look away. There is no option but to learn our civics and band together, and so far, banding together is yielding great value. Republican Congressman Dave Brat of Virginia said with regards to the Affordable Care Act, “wherever I go, women are in my grill.” Let me promise you, Representative Brat, that your grill will be occupied from this point forward.

The intent of this blog/email blast/Facebook post is to sort out challenges and opportunities so that we collectively can reach our highest possible of effectiveness. Vigilance is the price of liberty. Opposition matters, resistance matters. The reason why the Republican caucus is stumbling and bumping on repealing and replacing the Affordable Care Act is that they are about to own the issue of access to health care in America. Because of our collective focus and effort, they have two things they can do. They can do the right thing, which is to protect the level of universal access which we have been able to achieve. They can do the wrong thing and diminish that access, and pay a political price 21 months from now.

As opponents, we make choices every day. We decide what letter to send, what call to make (personalized notes and calls are most effective), who to donate to and when to go in the street. I understand and honor the people who say the Trump presidency is illegitimate and that opposition to all cabinet appointments is essential. But it is not the way I myself think. I know battle-picking is difficult, but I think sorting out the best opportunities for opposition is critical. I get that the excellent movement called Indivisible derives lessons for all of us from the Tea Party, and those are important lessons. But I also believe that having a second Tea Party is no way out of this morass.

Each of us decides for herself or himself. My own, yet to be proven, belief (which more than a few of my friends dismiss) is that selected Republicans read the same tweets and newspapers and, however meekly or carefully, sometimes look for ways to join the opposition to this assault on our nation by the president. Senators Bob Corker or Ben Sasse or Dean Heller or Jeff Flake or John McCain or Lamar Alexander or Susan Collins or Dean Heller or Lindsay Graham or Lisa Murkowski or even Mitch McConnell or Marco Rubio have expressed concerns on matters like the Muslim ban, and they can block the worst of the Trumpian excesses. They will do this regarding the Trump-Putin “bromance”, but they can’t do it regularly with political impunity. But I believe they will do it more and more. Even as a lifelong Democrat, I will celebrate each time they find the political or moral courage to do so. And I will fight for ways to show them the political consequences over time of not doing so.

That’s a huge issue going forward--- the extent to which Republicans will fight for the republic for which we stand.

Here are three things we can do:

1) Sort Out Executive Orders As We Fight Back
	Donald Trump’s executive orders issued thus far are a mishmash of things that are clearly within executive authority and announcements that showcase awful ideas but do nothing more than signal a battle to come. Here a first sort of some of the major orders, and which have the most traction. On executive orders the community of opposition must be careful to not be bamboozled. A great example of something where there is less than meets the eye in the short term is Trump’s threat to withdraw federal funding from “sanctuary” cities whose police are not always assisting federal efforts to apprehend undocumented persons. These threats of cutting off all federal funding are empty. Congress would have to pass specific sanctions and the Congressional action would have to overcome a filibuster by Democrats in the Senate. Moreover, the federal courts have found “cross-cutting” sanctions of state and local government to be an impermissible exercise of federal authority. Conservatives lawmakers and jurists have led that fight, seeing sanctions as a tool for an expansionist federal agenda they oppose. Permissible sanctions most often have been narrowed to withdrawal of funds in the area of the policy dispute, such as threatened cuts in transportation funds when the federal government mandated a national maximum speed limit during the Carter-era energy crisis. Thus, sanctions over the absence of police action in a sanctuary city would most likely be the reduction of federal assistance to that police department, an untenable position for Trump. Similarly, an executive order called for the elimination of the Dodd-Frank law regulating financial institutions, which Donald Trump made sound imminent. He can certainly weaken enforcement of the law but most of the action will be in Congress and the outcome (again, given the filibuster powers of 48 Senators) is not certain. Even with regard to the proposed walling off of the United States, Donald Trump has wall-building authority but some appropriations problems in finding the $15 billion he needs. Each opposing move must be tailored with a full sense of the powers the president has or lacks. That means on the Trump threats against sanctuary cities, opponents of Trump should determine whether they live in one of the 364 counties and/or 39 cities which he intends to target. The next step is to make certain the mayor, county executive, and city or county councilpersons are defending their position properly, and preparing for legislative battles in Congress and legal battles in the federal courts.
2) See What You Can Do About Republican Elected Officials
	Earlier in this missive, I talked about Republican Senators and their willingness or unwillingness to speak out against Trump’s abuse of our nation. The critical comments by Republican senators to date have been disappointing because they are never calculated to actually block an action. For instance, John McCain, Lindsay Graham, Marco Rubio and others used the hearings on the Rex Tillerson nomination to complain about the Trump-Putin relationship and the dangers in the Ukraine, but they could have blocked the nomination from being sent to the floor until they got meaningful reassurances, and they did not. Senators Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski have taken courageous and important stands against Betsy DeVos, but unless and until they go look for and find a third Republican colleague those stands aren’t going to be as courageous and important as they might seem. At this point, Trump’s implication that Russia and the United States are equivalent when it comes to Putin-style killing of dissidents is causing some serious Republican heartburn. So now is a good time for us all to take on the project of writing a personal note to one of these Republican Senators who have much more oppositional promise than they have presently displayed. In fact, write to one of their senior aides, mark the envelope personal so it will get opened, put your heart into it and tell that person how much it matters to America if their boss intervenes. --- Dean Heller of Nevada, who is up for re-election in November, 2018. He is worried about losing Republican votes if he crosses Trump, and worried about losing independent voters if he does not. Write to his legislative assistant Emily Wilkinson, 324 Hart Office Building, DC 20510 --- Lamar Alexander of Tennessee, who was a leader among Governors in supporting public schools and who in a long public career has shown a willingness to work across the aisle. Write to his national security assistant Erin Reif at 455 Dirksen Office Building, DC 20515 --- Ben Sasse of Nebraska, who has strong enough support in his home state to say what he wants, and who has thought Donald Trump to be unqualified from the beginning. Write to his legislative assistant Alyene Senger at 386A Russell Senate Office Building, DC 20515
3) Remember Who Needs Our Financial Support
	Now is a great time to support refugee assistance programs. Most often, they are nonprofits. Often different from immigrant advocacy and legal assistance programs (equally deserving of support), refugee assistance centers deliver indispensable direct services to arriving refugees, who need help gaining access to housing, education, employment and health care. The freezing of refugee movement into the United States has thrown the finances and the services of these organizations into turmoil.

This is no time to let our energies lag. At this point, the opposition we have collectively mounted is huge, and we are not going away. Doesn’t it seem like forever since we all started these efforts? We will prevail, and it matters hugely that we do. As always, please help me add to our own circle of conscience and action.

David Harrison
Bainbridge Island, Washington

#6: Powerful Movements Don’t Lose Their Energy

Powerful movements don’t lose their energy. Our following continues to grow. Please help share the word by having your friends email me to be added to our e-blast list, or enroll to receive the same ideas in my Path Forward Blog, or connect with me through Facebook.

The underlying question for any movement is its staying power, its ability to gather strength and maintain focus long enough to accomplish a meaningful portion of its goals. I have roots in the 1960s movements for civil rights and against the Vietnam War. I learned powerful movements can and must have multiple leaders and strategies, but they can’t lose their energy and they can’t derail themselves.

The extra ability to organize through the internet and social media can be a huge advantage, but all of us will need to remember what counts. Our interconnection has just made it possible for three million people to assemble worldwide on one amazing day. This demonstrates emphatically that this situation will not stand, that we will renew and even expand our nation’s quest for equality and justice. The marches bolstered the movement hugely, and there will be more such opportunities to come.

We must continue to hold ourselves to the highest standard in making certain that social media activity counts. Online discourses on Trump can gather people, provide important information, debunk misleading information from untrustworthy sources (including, as it turns out, the President!), help sort out strategies and organize, organize, organize. All these uses are worthy.

Online exchanges must ultimately generate action. Less than 1% of the million people who allied themselves through Facebook with Save Darfur in 2014 ended up donating, and their collective total was only $100,000. Similarly, other than fueling ourselves, a “like” responding to some clever anti-Trump trope is just a “like”, unless steps are taken.

And steps are being taken. Let’s choose relentlessness and let’s ally ourselves to the several efforts that are gaining traction. Notably, half the nation’s Republicans and nearly three quarters of all voters think that Donald Trump should release his tax returns. This is not going to go away. It will come to a new head with marches and heavy media attention on April 15, as the rest of us pay our taxes. The “We the People” website maintained by the White House is still up, and here is the chance to tell them exactly what Donald Trump should do. Over 346,000 people have signed this tax disclosure petition since inauguration.

And here are three other things we can all do right now:

1) Keep Focusing on Health Care Coverage
	Happily, the question of the extent of coverage under the replaced Affordable Care Act is in play. Republicans will either protect the ACA’s primary elements or suffer political damage in their home states if they do not so. In addition to the health care lobbying recommendations I made in missive #5, this would a good week to leave a message on the phone of Republican Senators who don’t know which way to turn. Start with any or all of five Republicans who have already pushed for alternative plans to be moved along before repeal:      Bob Corker of Tennessee - phone: 202 224 3344      Susan Collins of Maine - phone: 207-622-8414      Rob Portman of Ohio - phone: 216-522-7095      Bill Cassidy of Louisiana - phone: 337-261-1400      Lisa Murkowski of Alaska - phone: 907-225-6880 Don’t get misled by the language of the Republican leadership. When they talk about everyone having access to health care, they are not talking about everyone having coverage. Access means sending a bill (or providing much more limited help) to people who don’t have enough money to pay the bill. If you let them do it, coverage for as many as 20 million people could vanish. Democrats in the Senate (spurred by President Obama) are setting the stage nicely for the upcoming release of the replacement bill by Trump and Congressional Republicans. Will it maintain coverage, or won’t it? Mitch McConnell and Paul Ryan want to change that subject and they won’t be able to do so. As noted by my friend Anita Rockefeller, Organizing for Action is a terrific source on the ins and outs of health care politics and provides excellent ways in which you can engage.
2) Help People Understand That This Isn’t Populism
	Populist is fast becoming the most misused word in the English language. Please accept the challenge of combating the media’s incorrect application of this term to Donald Trump.First, although the term can be used as advancing the concerns of the common people, it is often used to refer to the concerns of the common people in the face of an ingrained establishment. As you know, this context is meant to underscore the rightness of the cause. Thus, any politician will be happy to be called a populist. When the media is latched onto Brexit as populism the flaws in the usage are quickly revealed, because a lot of "common people" opposed Brexit. There are plenty of political movements in which both sides argue that they are driven by populism and the media is not exempt from sorting this out. However you define the “common people” (itself a challenge), they or we don’t want Donald Trump to make false claims about elections and they or we want him to release his taxes. Using the term to describe an elected official does feel like a bestowing a label of goodness, even though it is entirely possible that this or that “populist” movement could be homophobic or xenophobic, which has happened in this country. The other issue beyond that is it should not be bestowed at the request of the politician. When Trump was running, President Obama said that there was no evidence from Trump's record that he had ever cared about the common people at all. To me, that is the biggest of the problems. It is in General Motors’ interest to allow Trump to claim a role in a manufacturing decision, even though they made that decision a year ago. Trump’s true manner is anti-populist, since his specific tax and regulatory proposals comfort the comfortable and afflict the afflicted. Please take it as a personal task to generate emails to media sources or reporters or letters to the editor saying that the term should be used only after review of the elected official’s actual positions.
3) Follow Up on Your Previous Political Adventures
	Those of us who are dedicated to four years of intensive political action will always face the challenge of trying to attend to a lot of things at once. It’s good to revisit some matters: I have stressed that it is possible for Democrats to win the 24 seats necessary to take back the U.S. House of Representatives in 2018. I have noted that there are 21 seats in which Republicans were elected in districts that gave Hillary Clinton more votes than Donald Trump. I have pointed to the analysis by the Daily Kos on how to sort out which seats can be won. And, I have been concerned about how absent this possibility has been from the daily discourse of politically dismayed people. Now comes a new organization focusing entirely on this challenge. Swing Left needs to improve its analytics about which seats are vulnerable, and the Daily Kos is wary of their political knowledge and skills, but this is a start.  In previous missives, I have talked about gerrymandering and voter suppression and the various organizations that are fighting back against these misbehaviors. Now, Democrats are getting more serious about these matters, especially in the context of 2020 state legislative elections. It is those legislators who will approve redistricting plans after the completion of the 2020 census. The new effort is being run by former Attorney General Eric Holder and is called the National Democratic Redistricting Committee. And, after reveling in a touching note written by a certain 12 year old I know about her “inalienable right” to march last weekend, I am including two remembrances of that day. From my friend, photographer John Snell, glorious pictures of marching in Montlelier, Vermont from his Still Learning to See blog. And, from my friend Barry Peters, a spreadsheet on who went where, from Friday Harbor, Washington to Antarctica.

Not only can we do this, we are doing it, but we have to be as unrelenting and as wise in our choices a year from now as we are now. Please help me find additional people who would be interesting in hearing this message.

David Harrison
Bainbridge Island, Washington

#5 We Will Not Walk Away From the Best Within All of Us

We will not walk away from the best within all of us as Americans. Please continue the inexplicable strong growth in the market for these missives (sent every two weeks) by getting your friends to add their names to our e-blast, or enroll to receive the same ideas in my Path Forward Blog, or connect with me through Facebook.

This situation is not going to normalize. I once hoped that the President-elect would allow the importance of the office to lift him, but that isn’t going to happen. An excellent explication by David Brooks describes what will instead emerge --- the shifting tweet-interpreting battle within and between senior White House staff, the Cabinet appointments, and House and Senate Republicans.

There is good news amid this awful news. The possibilities for our collective efforts are going to come earlier and be ongoing. As always, we must sort our priorities, and there is a huge opportunity on health care and on reproductive freedom.

Because the American Medical Association and others have insisted that the Affordable Care Act be replaced almost immediately after it is repealed, the chance that major elements of the Act can be preserved has grown. This has previously been the case with coverage of pre-existing conditions and young adults. The new news is that traction can be gained on maintaining coverage of 20 million health care recipients. The Pottery Barn rule -“ You broke it, you own it” will apply. As the Republicans remove mandated inclusion of healthy persons, they will face the need to find another way to finance the newly covered population, and they don’t have an answer, except for the tax increase they have already rejected. They will either save Obama provisions or damage themselves politically by rejecting them. Similarly, they will extend their own problems if they include banning funding of Planned Parenthood as a part of their repeal, as Speaker Ryan intends.

Right now, it is all about the Congress. We know that we have a powerful agenda to pursue at the local and state level and with Executive Branch agencies. But, we will be benefited from this point forward if Congress gets the early signal that Trump has generated an unprecedented, relentless movement with which they must deal. We are here. We are not going away. If you support the Trump agenda, whether or not you lose your specific seat, you will lose your majority. In the size and the principles of our efforts, we will make the Tea Party look like a tea party.

Here's what we can do:

1) Obsess about Congress
	Calling Congress over the next two weeks should come right after coffee. Missive #4 included a first meditation on why members of Congress care about calls, even if they live in safe districts and even (within some limitations) if you are not their constituent. There is nothing wrong with being a part of their tally, but you are trying to get beyond the tally if you can. a) Start with your own member of Congress, and your two Senators. Always tailor your message. Never send or read someone else’s script. Study their website to see who are the best points of personal contact. On the Affordable Care Act issue, see if somewhere on the website you can find the name of their legislative assistant who covers health care as one of her or his staff assignments. If you can find their number or email, use those in addition to calling their main number, or using the email comment function on the site. Whether or not you get a human or a tape, be positive and concise. If you don’t want 20 million people to lose their insurance, say so, firmly and compellingly. b) Turn around and do the same thing with one of the District offices of each of the Senators and the Congressperson. If you live anywhere near the office, stop by.  c) It is true that members of Congress are focused most on their constituents, but there are ways around that. Take advantage of every connection you have---- if you are a health care professional, or you used to live in their state, or visit it frequently. Don’t misrepresent your state if asked, but look for comment opportunities where you aren’t asked. d) Consider what groups or professional associations you can rally. If you have a circle of people who share your views on these matters, give them a name and ask the Member of Congress for a meeting next time she or he is in the district. e) Write letters to the editor to the newspapers that still exist, commend members who are doing the right things and ask people to contact members who are not.  f) Start learning more things that will be useful to your argument, this Washington Post article is a good resource. Always tailor your message.  Never send or read someone else’s script. How many people in your state will lose their insurance if Affordable Care Act markets and subsidies are going away?What are the dangers to insurance markets and consumers if the Republicans repeal and fail to replace? In which states that voted for Trump would replacement without repeal mean hundreds of thousands of people would be thrown off the roles? These Trump electing states who could lose the partial or fully expanded coverage they previously adopted include Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Iowa, Indiana, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Montana, North Dakota, Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia.
2) Find National Leaders Who Can Get Us to 218
	We will be a quart low on sufficient national leadership for a little while, which is a little disquieting because we should be working right now on the elections of 2018, to add 3 Senators (difficult, because of which seats will be on the ballot) and 24 House members. This is not as far-fetched as you might have thought. To start, there are 14 Republicans holding seats in districts where Clinton beat Trump. Whomever leads the Democratic National Committee should quell the unhelpful back and forth between former Clinton and Sanders partisans. People who plan to work through the Democratic Party have a right to expect that this party will get better in every way and on all levels. However, casting the effort to make it better as a Sanders-Clinton second chapter is a splashy gift to Donald Trump and Paul Ryan. Even after the DNC there is a need to figure out which of any national political efforts you want to support, such as MoveOn.org. There are arguments to be made for each national organizing vehicle, and MoveOn is a good one. Just make certain to check where each organization is spending its energy, and make certain that their recommendations are current, well-formulated and not snarky. Also, remember that on such issues as voter registration, the best work may be being done at the local level. Missive #4 includes material from Daily Kos which is the best site for understanding which individual members of Congress are most vulnerable in 2018. Move beyond the map to the tables that provide the vote totals in specific races in states where you have interest. You are comparing the vote total and percentage for the Republican member of Congress in 2016 with the vote total and percentage within that district for Obama in 2012 and/or Clinton in 2016. What you are doing is finding districts with a lot of people who want to protect President Obama’s achievements but which have members of Congress that Speaker Ryan is deploying to unravel those achievements. Targeted races will develop.
3) On That Day
	It now seems clear that there will be enough people in the streets before and after the Inauguration to send the signal that Donald Trump’s present and future actions are not acceptable. Pointed public protest is an important tool going forward, as long as it does not substitute for the rest of the work. Thanks to Jon Bayley, we have a reminder that we need to attend to our own celebration on January 20. Some of his counsel: Don’t watch the inauguration and boost its ratings. Buy a good newspaper to support the free press. Do something good for your community. Give blood. Volunteer at a shelter or a food bank. Wear something to indicate your distress, like a black armband or the previously discussed safety pins that are worn across America. Participate in a local demonstration. Donate to organizations that are fighting the battle, like the Democratic Party, immigrant rights groups, Planned Parenthood, and voter registration efforts.

We can do this, together. We already remember that we can’t afford to lose focus. This situation that we are in is not a good thing, and the dangers to our country and world are significant. But, this situation also provides us the opportunity to again elevate the things that are important, and to successfully oppose those who would make our country small.

Best regards,

David Harrison
Bainbridge Island, Washington

#4: We Will Not Be Mere Observers

We have enrolled 50 new people since our e-blast/blog of just two weeks ago! You honor this effort by continuing to send names of people who would like to receive these missives. They can either receive the e-mail, enroll in the blog or follow my Facebook page. All past missives are also archived on the blog for reference.

We are all faced with the challenge of how not to be “just an observer” in this increasingly bizarre time. As always, the first step in being deliberate and effective in our engagement is sorting out what is going on and fully understanding the greatest threats to the republic for which we stand and the most compelling political opportunities. We need to seize upon those opportunities and not be distracted. For some, even in the midst of the manipulations and misrepresentations that are the daily fare of the Trump assumption of the Presidency, modest redemptive acts by the President-elect can be possible.

But for me, even if a single appointment or action emerges that seems sensible, my rejection of this man as president will be untouched. There is nothing he can or will do to be fit to be president. This is because to him the lie doesn’t matter at all. To all of us, whether you praise a dictator or dismiss a foreign nation’s interference in the election goes to the heart of our freedom as Americans. To him, it is a daily game in which the facts and even the aims are inconsequential, giving way always to what seems to be his unparalleled incuriosity and narcissism.

Through all of this we will prevail, together. What we have going for us is that we will not let ourselves be mere observers of the events of the next four years. The quality and intensity of our collective actions will carry the day.

The first enormous victory is less than two years away! As discussed later in this fourth missive, there is disagreement about whether we can get the 24 seats to take back the House in 2018. I think it is self-evident that we can, and of course we must. There are steps we can begin to take right now.

In the meantime, battlegrounds will be chosen. Almost all of the major Presidential cabinet appointments will be approved in the next couple of months, some only after the requisite set of warnings are issued to the nominee and assurances received by the Senate. Concentrated action will move to hearings about Russian hacking and the elections, which Senators McCain, Graham and others will use with some effectiveness to push back against Trump softness on Russia. Trump and the Congress will pass a showy repeal of the Affordable Care Act, granting themselves time to figure out how to preserve its most popular provisions, such as coverage of pre-existing conditions. It will become apparent early on that they have no way to reconcile the disputes among Republicans in the House. Ultimately, Speaker Ryan will appeal to Congressional Democrats for votes to get a new health care law passed that the Senate can agree to and that includes major provisions of the current law.

Here are three new steps we can all take now.

1) Learn What Indivisible Has to Say on How to Play Defense
	Fortunately, a group of former Congressional staff members has put together a 26-page primer on how to influence members of Congress. As someone who worked on Capitol Hill for several years, I can attest to this overall approach and to the clarity of their ideas and message. This is the best material so far on ways to help make certain that Congress prevents Trump from doing his worst. As you read the Indivisible report please pay special attention to their description of how the members of Congress are thinking about you, your views and their role in Congress. Even the member whose views are the furthest from your own is likely to be making an effort to show his or her district that he or she is responding to their needs and that of the country. To this day, with an awful partisan divide and with rational discourse on some issues not invited by the majority, one can find oneself appreciating the quality of a Congressional committee hearing, or a “markup” of a bill in committee. Your goal is to take advantage of the way the member of Congress thinks about her or his effectiveness as a public servant. As the creators of Indivisible point out, even members from safe seats are worried about primaries from within their own parties, or they have otherwise found a reason to pay some attention to the collective voice of concerned voters. The report emphasizes your connection with your representatives through their town halls, their other public meetings, through visits with them and their staff at their in-district offices, and through mass calling campaigns. It is astute on how to organize and deliver a message. It falls short a bit only in its aggressive use of the Tea Party and their activities in 2009 as a prime lesson. We need to remember and account for the antipathy of liberals and progressive to being herded! But, the intensity of effort will certainly be there, born out of the present unacceptable situation.
2) Develop an Obsession with Winning the House of Representatives on November 6, 2018
	Donald Trump’s favorability rating on the day of the election was 38%. There are any number of political analysts who believe he will never achieve a favorability rating as high as 40% during his period as President. A not inconsiderable number predict constant political warfare between him and Republican members of Congress, starting with disputes over the hacking and his coziness with Russia. Given these factors, why would we believe he will be a colossal political force two years from now, when the parties of even successful presidents almost always suffer a mid-term loss? It is true that the redistricting carried out by mostly Republican state legislatures after the 2010 census causes us extra problems. For instance, in 2014, Republicans captured 52% of the votes for members of Congress, but won 57% of the seats. In 2012, Democrats got more than half the votes and captured only 201 of the 435 seats. Of course, only some of this is due to modest or even egregious gerrymandering. Some of it is due to heavy Democratic concentrations in some urban areas, which no amount of creative map-drawing can spread out. Even with these obstacles, we can take back the House. We need to take back just 24 seats to go from the present 241-194 to a razor thin 218-217, which we have done twice in the post-war era. Why is this possible? Because Trump and Ryan will make the more vulnerable Republicans “walk the plank” to provide necessary votes to repeal the Affordable Care Act and support tax “reform” that comforts the comfortable. There are 14 congressional districts that Hillary Clinton carried that have Republican members of Congress and at least a score more that are trending in the Democratic direction because of changing demographics. We will say more in our next missive. You can learn more by using this Daily Kos article to see which nearby Republican member of Congress is sitting in a district that does not want President Obama’s accomplishments unraveled. Boosted by the Indivisible report, make it a point to follow that member’s actions from this point forward. It will not be too long before candidate recruitment begins and before the recognition that we can take back the House of Representatives gains greater momentum.
3) Remember Your Charitable Contributions
	At this point, under new leadership, our country is infirm. From previous missives, we remember that we are all trying to include charitable giving to advance its health, to shore up those organizations that are battling the Trump agenda or providing essential services that the United States may abandon. This could include such entities that are playing defense as the Natural Resources Defense Council, the Southern Poverty Law Center and Planned Parenthood. My favorite goes to the heart of the matter---- boosting registration of Latino voters in Texas, Colorado, Nevada, California, New Mexico and Arizona through the Mi Familia Voter Education Fund.

As has been the case since November 8, we could make the mistake of looking away. We told ourselves when we heard the news that this would not and will not stand. We recognize the need for focused, collective action, and we will not exempt ourselves from this challenge. And we will succeed.

Best regards,

David Harrison
Bainbridge Island, Washington

#3: Making the Most Careful Choices

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Please sign our petition on change.org to urge Donald Trump to start working on his taxes now so that he will be ready to pay on April 15. Send the petition on to your friends. And, if you are interested in giving this effort an extra boost, use the "Promote this petition" link to send $25 or $50 to change.org so they can get the word out.

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Dear Friend,

One of the most unusual things about this post-election period is that there are major choices to be made every single day about how to engage. Because Donald Trump’s tweets, cabinet appointments, and recent foreign policy positions are so disheartening and dangerous, the varying approaches you could use to defend the republic are growing, even exponentially. What standard can we use to sort things out?

I don’t think there is much danger that at this point, we will start falling by the wayside, figuring that things will be okay, not when the President-elect insists that he is smart enough to not need regular intelligence briefings. Of all Donald Trump’s flaws, and there are many, the greatest danger to all of us may be his lack of curiosity, his disinterest in learning new things, his erstwhile selection and parroting of information (however fanciful or inaccurate) that supports the view he already held.

In the context of the turmoil which will persist and our dismay which will linger, the question becomes how we make choices. How can we pick the most consequential actions, so we will turn ourselves into activists who will not rest unless we block Trump’s worst intentions and until we revel in this being over on November 3, 2020?
There isn’t going to be a universal standard for how to sort out where to focus our most intensive efforts. My own sorting device is to avoid initiatives that seem doomed from the outset, like changing the vote of the Electoral College, since so many of the electors are legally bound. You might feel differently about that. My interest in Trump’s income tax payments comes from a feeling that 1) the pressure from multiple fronts will grow between now and April and 2) he is destined to act in a way that is disfavored by a broad cross section of the electorate. I think this is a negative that will stay with him. If anything it will get worse.
 
My priority setting standards on what all of us can do involve questions like: Could the proposed approach have any chance of success? Is it fair? Does it avoid a level of snarkiness or self-righteousness that is tempting but self-defeating? In terms of trying to influence the votes of citizens or lawmakers, is the message accurate and well-articulated? Is it being delivered to the right people, and is the timing right? If the approach includes supporting a specific organizing group or a non-profit, will they be able to sustain their effort? What is their track record?

Helping our Collective Impact Grow

In addition to these missives being emailed to you all, they are posted on Facebook and are collected on my blog. It would be a great honor to me if you could send me two or three names of people who would like to regularly receive these ideas, as many of you have already done. We will build on approaches we have already offered (archived on the blog), including:

• How to contact a member of the U.S. House of Representatives or U.S. Senate so your views will have a life beyond hitting their phone call tally sheet. (November 30)
• How to identify which Trump supporting members of Congress will be most vulnerable in the fall of 2018, including some that may surprise you. (November 30)
• How to watch whether Democrats do a better job of framing and presenting their economic message, with a little progress already on this front. (November 16) 

Here are three more things we can all do right now:

1) Combat Ongoing Voter Suppression Efforts
	Many of us are aware that gerrymandering by state legislatures after the 2010 elections makes the task of taking back the House of Representatives even harder. If Republican controlled legislatures can engineer it, they will concentrate Democratic voters in as few districts as possible.  For instance, there are nearly as many Democratic voters as Republicans in North Carolina, and the Congressional delegation has 10 Republicans and 3 Democrats. Even more pernicious is voter suppression. 2016 brought the lowest presidential election turnout in Wisconsin in 20 years. The primary tool for decreasing the vote was a Voter ID law, with the state Department of Motor Vehicles dragging its feet in issuing ID’s to those without driver’s licenses, and the related drop in voting totaling 41,000 in Milwaukee alone. At this point the primary battle over voter suppression is in the courts, though state legislatures must be watched too after many go back into session in January. Advocates for voting justice should support the impressive legal efforts of the American Civil Liberties Union in several states, and nationally should support the very thorough and principled actions of the voting rights program of the Brennan Center for Justice at New York University. The Brennan Center is an excellent resource on what is happening in the courts.
2) Fight Where the Greatest Dangers Will Emerge
	It is certainly possible that Trump will never secure positive approval ratings during the entire period of his presidency. However, the damage that can be wrought even by an unpopular, under-supported President can be huge. Hence our attention is naturally drawn to global destabilization, given the dangers of Twitter diplomacy. It is good to remember that in some areas defenses are easier to mount, as will be evidenced in the bi-partisan hearings on Russia and hacking. Surprisingly, this is also true of tax policy. When the Senate Finance Committee and House Ways and Means Committee start working on tax “reform”, they will not begin their efforts with the frame of Trump’s proposal. Of course, that doesn’t mean the resultant law will meaningfully address wealth disparities. We are in the greatest immediate trouble in the area of environmental policy, because so many of our recent gains were secured by executive orders from President Obama in the face of Congressional abdication of responsibility. The President-elect nominated Scott Pruitt as head of the Environmental Protection Agency as the first step in rescinding and reversing these executive orders. There have been 35 executive orders on energy, climate change, and the environment, and President Obama issued a new one last week on oil drilling and wilderness protection in Alaska. Here the battle will be multi-pronged. We know that Ivanka Trump does not want her father to walk away from the Paris accord. I expect that he won’t formally walk away, but that he will  do multiple, continued, insidious destructive things. So you will want to pick and support your favorite national environmental advocate. I like the litigation-oriented Natural Resources Defense Council. But don’t stop there. There are very considerable actions that can be taken at the regional, state and local level. If you live in a state that recognizes the existence of climate change, find out what state government is being asked to do that it isn’t presently doing, who is asking them to do it and contact your own state legislators. For example, in Washington State the excellent driving force is Climate Solutions. And, don’t stop there either. Almost every member of Congress speaks of the wondrousness of our environment when they are campaigning. When Congressional environmental committee memberships are settled in January, I will provide the names and personal numbers of these members’ key environmental policy staff members, and I will urge you to do some intensive, individual contact work.
3) Advance a Robust Free Press
	It turns out that a pizza parlor in DC is not the headquarters of a Democratic sex ring! It was just selling pizza, as they informed the man who showed up with a shotgun. We have a long, long way to go in battling made up news, and we can start by subscribing to publications where news is researched and covered and written. This from my very wise friend Hilary Hilscher: "As a former journalist, and one who still believes there are such things as true facts as opposed to twitter blather, I think supporting the “Fourth Estate”, i.e., a robust, honest free press is one extremely important step we can take. With the probable-incoming President dissing all of the foundations of our democracy, we simply HAVE to have intelligent, ethical reporting if we are to continue as a viable country." So please consider adding this to your list of to-dos: Support original sources of news rather than just using internet aggregators! This means subscribing or contributing to solid news sources such as The New York Times, The Washington Post, the Guardian, National Public Radio, or go straight to indie groups. Consider subscribing to local news outlets: The Seattle Times, one of the last family-owned regional newspapers, and like all newspapers, is struggling to find its financial footing in the digital age. Know the editorial outlook of your media: The New Yorker and Atlantic are definitely progressive in outlook, but offer some of the most in-depth, thoughtful analysis available. ALSO, use every opportunity to challenge fake or hate-talk outlets like Fox and Breitbart.

Thank you all again for participating in this venture. With each missive, our “audience” continues to grow. Could you stay with us, ACT whenever you can, and pass this all on to your friends.

David Harrison
Bainbridge Island,  Washington

#2: Jettison the Depression, Get Up and Move Forward

Dear Friends,

I wrote to you two weeks ago regarding paths forward after the disheartening Presidential election. At the time, I called for relentlessness in taking the action steps necessary so we can revel 2 years from now during the mid-term elections and leap for joy on election day in 2020. These are not idle dreams.

I received a huge response to my expressed beliefs that it is time to jettison the depression and get up and move forward. Given the number of people who seconded my thoughts and sent them on to others, I have decided to offer specific action steps every two weeks in email and blog form with links posted to Facebook, because we are far more likely to succeed if across American people are taking ownership of this challenge. As before, if this isn't your idea of a good time you can delete my missive, or ask me to remove your name. If it is, please check out the blog, forward the email, and/or follow me on Facebook. For those who did some forwarding last time, I would be glad to add names directly to my list if that is appropriate and you send those names on to me.

My feeling now is eagerness. The early start for the President-elect (I am forcing myself to input those words!) has not been encouraging. This week we received the bizarre claim of millions of illegal votes. There will always be something, unfortunately.

Certainly, we are hoping that some actions will go well, or that they go not as badly as we feared.  But let's not lull ourselves, because some things are going to rend the republic for which we stand. The point for all of us going forward is that this about a playbook (action steps), not just a scorecard that reveals what others have done. If we limit ourselves to following in the media how some less unacceptable appointee is faring, we miss the point. This is about what we are going to do, week after week.  Please don't lose your resoluteness as the rest of your life presents itself.

Here are four things you can do right now:

Petition Donald Trump to Pay His Taxes
	As those of you that are most closely watching the situation know, there is a check we can send or a petition we can sign every day. Let's sort these things out carefully. Let's pick initiatives that have a chance of catching on, that are not unduly snarky, and which will matter if they do catch on. We have a nomination. Ask Donald Trump to pay federal income taxes. We started a petition that makes this request and have posted it on change.org. It reads: " Dear President-Elect Trump, April 15 is not too far away. We respectfully request that you plan to pay federal income taxes by that day, like tens of millions of Americans of all political viewpoints. We believe this is an essential and fundamental duty of all citizens. Thank you." We think this is worthy of your signing and promoting. Just click on the link above. There is no record of any President failing to contribute to our collective aims in the time since the tax was established in 1913. We believe it a core duty for anyone who seeks to be a governmental leader, but we have no confidence that Donald Trump agrees with that. We think a groundswell of citizen interest in this will cause him to either to do the right thing or to be exposed in not doing the right thing. Please pass it on.
1) Take Your First Steps in a Two Year Project: Win Back the House
	I am guessing that you do not necessarily know who the most vulnerable Trump-supporting Republican member of Congress is in your vicinity. Time to become an active student on what could emerge so you and your friends can play a role. As Obama supporters will painfully remember, there is a history of the President's party jettisoning support during mid-term elections, resulting in the mammoth loss of 63 seats! by Democrats in 2010 and another 14 in 2014. The count is now 241-194, so the Democrats would need to gain 24 seats in 2018 to take back the House. This is less outlandish that it seems because Democrats took back 30 seats in 2006. It is impeded by redistricting shenanigans, but it is still possible. Of course, it all depends on how the new Administration is doing at the time, but it is not a huge stretch to think the wind will be at the back of candidates who want to brake Trump's worse excesses. The thing to do is start to research and eventually own a race near you, or a race which you otherwise identify with. Potential candidates are thinking about this now. If you wait until too late you can be without a viable candidate in a district which might otherwise be in play. For instance, in Washington's state's 8th District three weeks ago Republican Dave Reichert defeated Tony Ventrella 60-40%. In 2012, Barack Obama got more votes than Mitt Romney in this same Congressional district, which may reveal an opening as Reichert's party forces him to help unravel Obama's accomplishments. As they emerge, I will send you some links to 2016 results to help you further analyze what might be possible. Here's a first look at 43 key races from across the country. You can look at your own's state's races by googling your Secretary of State's site.
2) Give the Gift That Keeps On Giving
	In my previous letter, I noted that there are organizations that can receive charitable donations in any end of the year giving you are inclined to do, and which are working on issues that will be critical between now and the next election. The Mi Familia Vota Education Fund will receive your tax deductible donations to continue to register Latino voters in six key states. A lot of us are concerned that racist and anti-immigrant actions are or will be in their ascendancy. If you are looking for an organization that is a skilled and fierce combatant of these actions, there are not any more skilled or more fierce than the Southern Poverty Law Center.
3) Show Senators That You Care About What They Do
	There will be more to do on this as specific policy battles emerge, but the national epicenter for fighting over tax policy and climate change and Medicare and countless other matters will be the Senate. It is time to think about what you can do on that front. First, there are 48 Senators that caucus with the Democrats, but remember that issue by issue some of those Senators are in play. Democratic Senators like Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Jon Tester of Montana and Claire McCaskill of Missouri will be under tremendous pressure to support elements of Trump's emerging agenda that you yourself might not favor. Republican Senators like John McCain and Jeff Flake of Arizona, Susan Collins of Maine and Ben Sasse of Nebraska did not support Trump's election but will be pressured to provide support. Two things. Start watching Charles Schumer of New York, the new minority leader. Even though he was a poor spokesman for them, Democratic Senators kept Harry Reid because he attended to the mechanics of legislation and to their individual requests. Charles Schumer has his faults, but he will articulate the agenda of Senate Democrats much better than Harry Reid did, starting now. Read more here. Here's a project. Select a Senator in the balance, Democrat or Republican, who may be one of the seven I named above. Rather than resigning yourself to being one of thousands of people on their answering machine, go on their website, look at the assignments of their legislative assistants (who along with committee staff help them with legislation.) Pick the assistant whose assignments match up with one of your strong interests, and call that assistant instead. You may not get through, but the well-stated message you leave on their voice mail will keep you from just blending in to the office-wide tabulation.

Keep going. Collective actions don't emerge magically. They are built upon the individual ongoing concerted principled thoughtful actions of people like you.

Thanks
David Harrison
Bainbridge Island, Washington