#23: We Have Never Had Any Choice But to Take Back the House

EMERGENCY ALERT: We interrupt this post that is focused on other dangers and threats. There is an emerging threat that the Graham-Cassidy effort to repeal the Affordable Care Act will be brought to the Senate floor this week. Please email these Senators and beseech them not to play along on this all new scheme to take health care away from the Americans who most need it: 

• Morgan Griffin, Legislative Aide for Lisa Murkowski, Alaska 
  Steve Abbott, Chief of Staff for Susan Collins, Maine 
  David Bennett, Legislative Aide for John McCain, Arizona 
  Rachel Green, Legislative Aide for Dean Heller, Nevada

Thank you for continuing to share these messages with your friends, if you are not already on our mailing list, please click here to be added to our list. You can also follow me on Facebook. The more people we can reach, the more we contribute to this growing movement. We share these posts on our blog, A Path Forward to November 3, 2020, every two weeks, which means there will be a total of 100 missives before the Presidential election of 2020, in which our country will select a whole new course.

It’s time to collect ourselves as we (and so many others) continue this largely successful effort to curb the countless excesses of Donald Trump, and thus protect our nation. It is also the time to make certain our fervor does not dissipate.

We all have done better in the past 10 months than we might have expected. The Affordable Care Act is wounded but it stands. The wall is unbuilt, proposed State Department cuts have been pushed back, Russia has been sanctioned and Planned Parenthood is funded. On the other end of the ledger, a new Supreme Court Justice has been confirmed, executive orders have diminished the environment, and the President has regularly contributed to international instability. Ahead of us is a major battle over taxation, and the extent to which tax “reform” exacerbates or alleviates huge wealth disparities in our country.

We never have had any choice but to take back the House in November of 2018, and the chances are very good that we will accomplish that goal. More moderate Republican members of Congress like Charlie Dent of Pennsylvania and Dave Reichert of Washington have announced they are not seeking reelection, making their swing districts far more vulnerable for Democratic takeover. We need 24 seats to take back control of the House, and could get more than 40.

The key word is could. First, there is no danger that Donald Trump is going to significantly increase his voter approval. The John Kelly molded man seeking to look presidential will return to the true mold each time Kelly looks the other way. The unfettered, uninformed and unprincipled Trump is the essence of the man.

So that may mean that the biggest impediment to taking back the House is us. Pogo said “We have met the enemy and they are us.” We must defend against three ways we could take ourselves down. We could pull defeat out of the jaws of victory in the fall of 2018 with no cohesion, or no leaders, or no ideas.

The first test is how people who previously Sanders and Clinton work together. So far, the signs are encouraging. Neither Sanders nor Clinton is going to be the 2020 nominee, and their strongest supporters know that already, which is freeing. There will be meaningful Democratic policy/political differences in scores of Congressional primaries, but those can strengthen us. Additionally, the fears that “identity politics” will make us less than our collective sum are not founded. Passion fuels us. By November of 2018, we need to display unity, not uniformity.

Who will lead us is the bigger question. Did we not realize during the reign of Harry Reid that having the Senate Minority Leader as our spokesperson on the evening news will inevitably become a problem? Good minority leaders are tacticians. They relentlessly attend to the key concerns of each Democratic Senator. They automatically illuminate their political sides. The clear articulation of our aspirations and agenda is not the prime gift of either Chuck Schumer or Nancy Pelosi. Hopefully, this need will start to get filled when various presidential aspirants start to appear. The New York Times has given its sought after attention to eight candidates.  

And, of course, we must and will become sharper about the why, the reasons why Americans should select our candidates rather than those allied to Trump. Some of these more refined positions will come out of Democratic primary races. These will be especially pointed in their disputes over international trade, within a party that houses both protectionists and free traders. The policy focus which will not emerge naturally is the interwoven series of initiatives that will respond anew to uneven economic opportunity in America’s regions. Actually, Democrats have been addressing these for some time, but it is not clear the public has been aware of that. It is broken and must be fixed.

All together, we give the resistance to Trump unbounded energy. That energy will drive and improve the responses to the three above challenges of cohesion, leadership and ideas.

If our indispensable weekly attention to these matters is waning, a little, then we will be less likely to gain the outcome we seek. Here are three things we personally can do to sharpen our engagement:

1) Please, please, please pick your Congressional campaign
	Campaigns are won or lost from their inception, not on the day the results are posted. We all felt Trump-generated despair from the moment he got the sufficient Comey-boost to gain election. We looked for every opportunity to fully and genuinely resist. Even if you have never picked a campaign in the past, it is time to pick one now. Read the newspaper to decide which, if any, Congressional races near you are going to be heavily contested. There will be 60 or so at least somewhat competitive races so you are going to find one, even if you have to consider a neighboring state. Use the excellent online resources which are available to help you sort things out. These include Indivisible and Swing Left either of which can help you sort out targeted races. Even though they have been excruciatingly absent from the organizing side of the picture, get on the e-mailing list of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. Also make it a point to keep tabs on your state Democratic party. After you pick your race, go see the candidate or one of her or his aides if they are within driving distance. If you don’t live in their district, join an Indivisible cell or other organizing group that will “adopt” the candidate. If such a group doesn’t already exist, organize it yourself. Do not be discouraged if there already five or six candidates indicating their interest. Pick the one who you find compelling. Even if your candidate isn’t the one moving forward, you will be adding to our collective strength.
2) Where you have special skills, advance them.
	Take an inventory of your skills. Start by making yourself good at door-to-door work. Eventually every campaign finds these resources essential, not just as a tool for swaying voters but even more as a tool to make certain we identify who is with us so we can get them to the polls. In 2016 we did not get the voter turnout we hoped for in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. That should provide some motivation. What other skills do you have? Can you raise money? Could you give money, even in the form of a monthly pledge? Organize events? Could you participate in or lead a letter writing campaign, or organize social media? Intermediaries are cropping up to make certain people with high-demand skills get found. Tech for Campaigns is an organization that is recruiting and deploying all manner of technology-savvy people.
3) Start your own voter registration campaign
	Even if you live in an enclave where people are red hot about their politics, you are surrounded by people who aren’t registered to vote. Or you know some people in other places who haven’t registered. They are young and haven’t got into the voting habit, or they have moved, or maybe they are disenchanted with the present situation. (How could that possibly be the case?) How about figuring out how to do a voter registration drive this winter and spring among high school seniors who are just turning 18.  Or, emphasize the 35 states who offer online voter registration. Scroll down on this site, find the link to online registration in your target state, and send the link to people you suspect have yet to register.

There will always be countless issues on which we must engage, and new Trumpian horrors to confront. Trump says that in all of his bullying, his disregard for even the most basic of truths, and his relentless promotion of himself and his properties, he is being “presidential” in a “modern” way. Could you imagine anything further from the truth than that? Or anything more motivating for all of us.

We continue to seek the day that we can say that it is a former President that said such a thing. It is a good time to re-assess how each of us is doing, and to determine and do what is necessary.

David Harrison
Bainbridge Island, Washington

#22: We Must Prevent Him From Afflicting the Afflicted and Comforting the Comfortable

Thank you for continuing to share these messages with your friends, if you are not already on our mailing list, please click here to be added to our list. You can also follow me on Facebook. The more people we can reach, the more we contribute to this growing movement. We share these posts on our blog, A Path Forward to November 3, 2020, every two weeks, which means there will be a total of 100 missives before the Presidential election of 2020, in which our country will select a whole new course.

This fall will bring a whole new set of issues which must be engaged by those who are worried about how our country will move forward. The summer recess by Congress removed the sporadically achieved "regular order" that John McCain sought.

In its place, we got Donald Trump even more unmoored, lurching through Charlottesville and Steve Bannon's departure, throwing out random Korea threats, seeking approval from Fox News and from late night calls with cronies. He has the most tortured nights at the White House since Abraham Lincoln walked at midnight. How awful it must feel to have only tweets and calling Roger Stone as your solace.

There will be a broader set of crises this fall - North Korea, Robert Mueller's progress, the Hurricane Harvey aftermath and with it the realization that Donald Trump has no capacity to lead the response. Notably, there will be an effort this fall by a bipartisan group of senators to shore up the health insurance markets that Donald Trump has roiled.

However, the best opportunities this fall for the millions of us who are dedicated to resistance will come in the areas of budget, finance and tax. Congress will determine whether and how the debt ceiling will be raised, how the government will be funded for the next several months, and how our taxes will be "reformed".

These are not just numbers on the page. Regarding the extension of government spending into December or January, we either will have a funded and functioning State Department and Foreign Service or we will not. Huge budget cuts for the EPA can be prevented. The modest Federal support of Planned Parenthood can be maintained. And, we can remove Donald Trump's thumb from the eye of the Mexican people by not building the wall.

Two forces will converge in assisting us in meeting these goals. First, Republicans are not unmindful that Donald Trump's criticisms of them can damage them politically, but they are still more worried about him and less scared of him than at any time since he was elected.

Secondly, and as important, the rules of the Senate will strengthen the hands of the Democrats by requiring 60 votes to close off debate on both the budget resolution and the increase in the debt ceiling. This will give Charles Schumer and his Senate Democrat colleagues plenty of leverage.

In the House, the Freedom Caucus will want significant Medicaid cuts as a part of a deal to increase the debt ceiling. Paul Ryan may have to make a deal with Democrats to keep the government open, which in turn could imperil his speakership. To him and to Mitch McConnell, Donald Trump is no help on any of this.

Tax reform will test the resistance, because Democratic members of Congress have some interest in adjusting the levels of corporate taxation, seeking to boost companies to higher levels of international competitiveness. Here's where the devil will be there with the details. Past tax reform efforts have exacerbated the growing wealth maldistribution that plagues America. Corporate tax reductions of the recent past have not resulted in levels of corporate investment in people, plants, and equipment that policymakers have projected.

Donald Trump, in the face of all these challenges, will want to afflict the afflicted and comfort the comfortable. These three actions can make certain we go in the right direction:

1) Senator Schumer, Tear Down That Wall
	Donald Trump still wants to build the wall. As he told Mexican President Peña Nieto in January he needs to do so because he promised his base he would. To the rest of us this is not a compelling reason to proceed. Certainly, there is political significance for him winning or losing this battle, but this proposal is about a greater crime - treating another nation as Trump lackeys and living a lie about Mexico. The good news is that the Senate rules and Trump's unpopularity are giving Democrats more traction on budget items. However, with that traction comes the promising but delicate opportunity to trade with Republican leadership, securing a gain on one front while making a sacrifice on another. Write minority leader Schumer's key staff member and tell her that for millions of us any building of the wall is not acceptable. Meghan Taira Legislative Director (202) 224-6542 meghan_taira@schumer.senate.gov
2) Confront Tax Reform as a Wealth Disparity Issue
	It's easy to get lost in the technical complexity of tax reform. It's that complexity that could make it possible for there to be some bipartisan support for a reduction in corporate tax rates without anyone sufficiently addressing ways to address wealth disparities and the continued gilding of the very rich. Corporate tax reform is a new opportunity for Mitch McConnell to pick off Democratic senators from states which Donald Trump won, including Heidi Heitkamp from North Dakota, Joe Manchin from West Virginia and Claire McCaskill from Missouri. Email these three legislative directors and tell the Senator for whom they work to demand tax fairness as an indispensable element of any bill they support: janelle_mcclure@mccaskill.senate.gov tracee_sutton@heitkamp.senate.gov wesley_kunge@manchin.senate.gov Check Americans for Tax Fairness for any underlying information you need.
3) Re-gear for Planned Parenthood
	The defeat of the "skinny" health care bill with John McCain's dramatic thumbs-down saved Planned Parenthood funding for now. This battle will remain pitched until we take back the House in 2018. As outlined in missive #19, Senator Lisa Murkowski of Alaska is our leader and deserves our thanks. Attention must now be paid to strengthen an already strong reproductive freedom movement. Planned Parenthood has an all new initiative built around the defense and advocacy for 600 clinics around the country and they are looking for more help from you today.

It just keeps on. Donald Trump says he loves dreamers except when he kicks them out of the country. He loves Harvey victims except when he treats the whole disaster like his own reality tv show.

He sees South Korea and China as major partners fighting the dangers of Kim Jong-un except for when he tweet-trashes them.

As a movement, we continue to grow. We are parrying everywhere we can and we are having great success. This demands our concentration every week as new offenses emerge, but there is no question that all of us together are up to this job.

David Harrison
Bainbridge Island, Washington

#21: We Will Demonstrate Our Love for Our Country and its Promise

Thank you for continuing to share these messages with your friends, if you are not already on our mailing list, please click here to be added to our list. You can also follow me on Facebook. The more people we can reach, the more we contribute to this growing movement. We share these posts on our blog, A Path Forward to November 3, 2020, every two weeks, which means there will be a total of 100 missives before the Presidential election of 2020, in which our country will select a whole new course.

In some ways the first eight months of the Trump presidency has turned out as predicted, and feared. Too bad for the country that in other ways, it has been worse.

Donald Trump has demonstrated an unparalleled inability to mute or even check himself, even when the times have most demanded it. And, when the time has come to learn things he needs to know about how a governmental program operates, he has no interest. He is unmoored and undisciplined and unprincipled.

Republican leaders have mastered the art of the meaningful aside, where they note their concerns about this or that Presidential action or position but provide no real opposition. Most often, all this represents is just a little hedging of the bets, as they see his approval levels dropping. This level of inaction is even more disappointing because these Republican Senators know a lot more about Trump’s failings than we do. But now there are notable exceptions to their toeing of the line.

• Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski and John McCain stopped the health care bill.
• The Senate sanctioned Russia in part for election interventions, and left Trump powerless to do anything about it.
• Key Republican Senators signaled that they will protect Robert Mueller.

Over time, the recent statement by Senator Bob Corker of Tennessee may be the most telling. He is the chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, has had good relations with Trump, and he is a long way from being a moderate. He said: “The President has not yet been able to demonstrate the stability nor some of the competence that he needs to demonstrate for him to be successful… Recently he has not demonstrated that he understands the character of the nation.”

This was not a spontaneous outburst. This was a signal that Corker is not just concerned, but gravely concerned. As well he should be.

It is also a sign that the resistance in all of its sprawling intensity continues to be a force. Corker and others will find a better path faster with our continued help.

There is lore that through it all the Trump voters are standing by their man. There have been countless national news stories interviewing Trump supporters in swing states, the reporter nodding her or his head meaningfully while a voter says they like it that Trump says what he thinks. The polls tell a different story. Reflective of Trump’s decline in popularity, 20% or more of Trump’s voters have walked away from him.

Odds are Trump will not be in a position to run in 2020. So, the big referendum will be the Congressional elections of 2018. The most important polling number is the “generic” Congressional vote. Right now, we are polling 8 points ahead, which would roughly equate to winning 40 additional seats, which would take back the House.

This is not inevitable. Good Democratic House and Senate candidates are emerging, but we will need a stronger, clearer unified message beyond the current “Can you believe Donald Trump is president?” And we will need a fresh generation of national leaders. This will all come in time. For now, let’s remember that no one should ever be able to call into question our focus and our stamina.

While Congress is on recess, let’s attend to the attacks Donald Trump is making on the executive branch. The president has considerable leeway to weaken cabinet agencies, so we must target our efforts as carefully as possible. Let’s do these three things.

1) Fight to Save America’s Standing Abroad
	The good news on these three recommended items is that Republican Senators have already signaled that the federal budget that emerges will ignore the most draconian of Trump’s proposals. The least favorite of all the cuts among Senators is the 32% cut in the State Department’s budget and proposed reduction of 2,300 positions.  Now is a good time to generate an email to your own two Senators telling them how much you appreciate the bipartisan support of the State Department. Tell your Senator that the cuts that are proposed would diminish our nation’s role in the world, would endanger Americans abroad, and would move us toward militarizing more conflicts. Then write a note to Senator Bob Corker’s chief of staff and tell him how much you appreciate his Senator’s role in protecting the integrity of the State Department. Chief of Staff Todd Womack is at todd_womack@corker.senate.gov.
2) Help Protect the Environmental Protection Agency
	There are at least three major reasons why it is more difficult to protect the EPA than the State Department. First, Donald Trump named Scott Pruitt as EPA Administrator, who makes Rex Tillerson look outstanding. Second, many major environmental laws provide considerable discretion to the President in their enforcement. Third, a lot of Republican Senators are on board with a significant reduction in environmental regulation. Nonetheless, environmental organizations have started to get some footing on EPA rule-making, as outlined in missive #18. In addition to the well-known major battlers like the Natural Resources Defense Council and the Sierra Club, there is an excellent, feisty, smaller organization focused almost entirely on the EPA which is led by former staff members. If you are already an environmental donor or have a hankering, the Environmental Integrity Project is a great place for you to head.
3) Defend Our National Monuments
	Since the passage of the Antiquities Act at Teddy Roosevelt’s urging in 1906, Presidents have been establishing National Monuments. Now under a Trump executive order, Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke is reviewing whether to decommission or cut back 21 monuments that previous presidents have established. There is not an easy way into this issue. The President’s use of the Antiquities Act will be challenged, since it is not clear whether these powers exist in the form that he expects to use them. There will be a back and forth for some time, including sidebar discussions with individual Republican members of Congress whose districts house the monuments. However, there is one good thing to do right now. The clothing retailer Patagonia has played a key role among outdoor companies in trying to get Zinke to cut back his cutbacks. REI and other companies have also joined this effort.  Please take a minute to write an email to patagoniapress@patagonia.com to thank them for their efforts, which hopefully will grow.

So, it goes. The rabid tweets and made up stories about General Pershing and thank you to Vladimir Putin for expelling embassy staff are not aberrations. They are the essence of this President. His further downfall is that as much as he says otherwise, he cares what you think. His rallies every couple of weeks are nothing more than an effort to get him some love. When that love isn’t forthcoming, and when you and millions of others seek a different course, he will lash out.

This is the way it is going to be for some time. Given his unsteadiness, it may or may not be four years. However long it is, we will maintain our intensity. We will ground ourselves in a rich understanding of what is transpiring and what we can do about it, and we will demonstrate our love for our country and its promise.

David Harrison
Bainbridge Island, Washington

#20: Here's The Best Thing to Say About This Mess

Thank you for continuing to share these messages with your friends, if you are not already on our mailing list, please click here to be added to our list. You can also follow me on Facebook. The more people we can reach, the more we contribute to this growing movement. We share these posts on our blog, A Path Forward to November 3, 2020, every two weeks, which means there will be a total of 100 missives before the Presidential election of 2020, in which our country will select a whole new course.

It seems interminable, but Donald Trump has been President for barely more than a half year. With the investigation by special prosecutor Robert Mueller, he may not make it four years. But the odds are greater that he will. Sure, most Republicans in the House and Senate would prefer to have Mike Pence as President. However, if they participate in any kind of induced departure they will severely split their party for 2020 and beyond, much worse than the split they have at present.

The President’s performance so far has been poorer than many of us imagined it would be. Our country is being “led” by an international bully. He is scandalously ignorant on countless major issues. His tendency to deny he said what he said or meant what he meant is unequaled in the history of the American presidency. Here’s the best thing to say about this mess.

Trump’s current huge disapproval levels are associated with Democrats taking back 45 seats in the House in November of 2018. We need to get 24 to regain the majority. Yes, we are fully capable of pulling defeat out of the jaws of victory but right now the good news is that the intensity of the resistance and Trump’s performance have placed us in a strong position. It is hard to be relentless for 16 months, but that is what will be called for.

Republicans need 60 votes to pass a budget in the Senate. They don’t want to shut down the government for lack of a budget, since voters would be unenthused about such a tactic. So, they will need to compromise with Democratic Senators, which in turn means no real progress for Trump on his wall. During the rest of the summer and early fall, the action will shift to the need to pass an increase in the national debt ceiling. Stay tuned for a wild time.

Members of Congress have gone home and Donald Trump has headed for a 17 day stay at a New Jersey golf club he owns. The news may slow down a bit over this period, and it is time to take stock. What we find are glimmers that Trump’s own party will stand up to him now and again when it counts, that their disquiet is growing and that they no longer think that their ties to him on health care and tax policy are advantageous.

The push back by Republicans on Russia sanctions and on Robert Mueller is not insignificant, but it is also not sufficient. (See missive #18 on the nature of the sordid deal that keeps them from stepping in much more often.) Furthermore, few, if any, of their interventions would be taking place if it were not for the massive citizen resistance to Trump and his resultant low popularity among voters.

The Senate Republicans are still askew after the huge drama of John McCain asking for “regular order” (the normal functioning of the Senate under its rules) and voting against Mitch McConnell’s “skinny” health care bill. They are extremely unlikely to find another path to 50 votes anytime soon. The signal of a new direction came from Republican leader John Thune of South Dakota, who in the face of taunting tweets from Trump said, “Maybe lightning will strike… but I am not holding my breath.”

Senator Lamar Alexander (chair of the Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor and Pensions) has joined with the ranking Democrat on the Committee (Patty Murray of Washington) to announce public hearings in September on how to shore up the very health care exchanges and markets that Trump is deliberately destabilizing. There are similar bi-partisan discussions in the House. None of these things would have happened were it not for the intensive efforts of citizens across America. What better motivation could there be to redouble these efforts? 

During the Congressional break is a great time for us to attend to our broader efforts to renew our country. Here’s three things we can do:

1) Make Certain We are Allied With Key Organizers
	It is a good thing that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is not the only force or even the primary force behind organizing us all to take back the House. Indivisible has been indispensable in spurring local activity and Swing Left, after an uneven start, has done its own good job of targeting winnable districts. Organizing for Action is now accelerating its activity.   There is enough work to go around. Organizing for Action (once called Obama for America) has excellent ties to Barack and Michelle Obama, proven organizing savvy, and good ties to potential Democratic candidates. They are another very good choice as we all figure out the best place to ally ourselves and apply our energies.  Now is not the time to wonder which Congressional race or races to dive into. Now is the time to decide which race to dive into. For those who live in a safe Democratic district and whose member of Congress is doing a good job, often a swing district is nearby and is already in play. Many local Indivisible groups have adopted races, and Indivisible, Swing Left and others are doing a good job of examining and identifying which races to target. Jump in now. Early money, and early organizing strength is like yeast.
2) Don’t Forget “Down Ballot” Races
	2010 was awful year in American politics. A number of state legislatures garnered Republican majorities and thus were empowered to manage redistricting processes. In some states like Wisconsin, North Carolina and Texas, egregious forms of gerrymandering ensued. In a few instances, the approach has been addressed by the courts, who may ultimately develop new means of determining at what point a gerrymandered district has violated constitutional standards. In the meantime, we must get more oriented toward down ballot races for the State Legislature. These will ultimately determine who will be in the majority in state capitals after the 2020 elections. Additionally, state legislatures are playing a key role in pushing back against Trump’s assaults on health care an environment regulations. There is an excellent way to pick a key state legislative race and lend your financial or other support. The new organization Sister Districts will match you up with work to be done in specific key races.
3) Make Sure People are Registered
	In previous issue of this missive, we have emphasized the considerable ongoing voting efforts of Mi Familia. Recognizing that several states have increased the opportunity for online registration, Voto Latino is an important place to provide support, since they emphasize online approaches.

With the unfortunate last-minute announcement of James Comey, with the illegal involvement of the Russians and their possible collusion by Trump, with the errors in our own efforts, we lost by 70,000 votes spread over Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. What a horrible thing to have so many efforts on global alliances, climate change, health care, reproductive freedom and countless other progressive strategies turn to ash on a single day.

But it couldn’t be any clearer that we have already risen from the ashes and dusted ourselves off. The worst of American Republicanism, its shielding of people of privilege from the challenges of the world, its me-only obsession, is now out in the open. We know what we are fighting against, and it is already abundantly clear that we can win. So let’s win.

David Harrison
Bainbridge Island, Washington

#19: A Republic If You Can Keep It

Thank you for continuing to share these messages with your friends, if you are not already on our mailing list, please click here to be added to our list. You can also follow me on Facebook. The more people we can reach, the more we contribute to this growing movement. We share these posts on our blog, A Path Forward to November 3, 2020, every two weeks, which means there will be a total of 100 missives before the Presidential election of 2020, in which our country will select a whole new course.

During the Constitutional Convention, Benjamin Franklin was approached by a citizen in a Philadelphia square outside the closed meetings. The woman said “Well, Doctor, what do we have, a republic or a monarchy?” And Dr. Franklin said, “A republic, if you can keep it.”

And so, we have tended for 230 years to our collective commitment to self-determination and the freedoms it generates. As a country, we have done some awful things and harbored searing injustices, but we have kept the republic. As much as there is a beacon anywhere for long-lasting democracy, we represent that beacon, however great its disrepair. We will not let that light dim through the actions of a man who has not been and will not be fit to be president.

When he swore an oath, we swore one too. His is not going well. Tweeting away on health care, he has displayed no understanding of either the system he wants to replace or what would come next. Worse, he has no need nor desire to understand these things. He said recently, “They are always talking about death. Obamacare is death”. In his public discourse, he is one short step away from “So’s your old man.”

In Washington, he has been found out by his own staff and cabinet heads, who know he wants sycophants. The Congress is about to pass sanctions on Russia that take us in the opposite direction from the Putin political embrace for which Trump had been yearning. Things are getting harder and harder for him as weeks go by. He watches Fox & Friends for their creative interpretation of the world, and tweets the night away. With the Mueller investigation and the Trumpian raging at Jeff Sessions, it is difficult to see his performance or voter approval improving.

Our oath is going well. Under these circumstances it is hard to take much joy in that, but the preliminary results are in. All together we have created a movement that will be sustainable throughout the four or fewer years of the Trump presidency. Trump’s support from independents has deteriorated. As Gallup notes, the average presidential approval rating by independents is 53%. Trump’s has fallen to 36%. Further, the news story about how his Republican base is undaunted is misleading. Support has lessened, and fewer than 30% of those polled are identifying as Republican in the first place.

Currently, it is not a problem that ours is a movement that has just a little coordination, innumerable priorities, no single leader, and an indistinct affirmative agenda. Certainly, all those things will have to change over time. For now, it is a blessing that we are sprawling and spirited and that we are not a Democratic Party project. Indivisible has been nearly indispensable, but there are countless initiatives and an unabated fervor. If you have remained fervent yourself, please keep that up.

If you have found your fervency flagging a little bit over time, or you are at least a little less focused that you had been, you may be forgetting how much you matter. Sorry to say, but the only way this works is that we all must remain relentless. For motivation, how about reminding yourself how you felt the morning after the election? If you have stopped being a participant and started being a spectator instead, come back right now, please.

The successful motion to proceed to the amendment process does not mean that the Senate will repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act, because they still don’t have 50 votes behind any course of action. Their first two major actions failed 57-43 (comprehensive bill) and 55-45 (repeal without replace). However, as described in missive #18, many Republican Senators are still thinking that it will be better for them over time if they pass a deeply unpopular bill to repeal and replace than if they refuse to do so. The national outpouring, the calls and emails and notes that you and your neighbors have sent, has already placed them in a deep quandary. Here are three things right now that will make it deeper:

1)Targeting State Fiscal Issues
	Mitch McConnell is going to use the upcoming amendment process to gauge how he can get to 50 votes. He has been inducing individual senators, trying to give them political “cover” by spending more on their key concerns, like the opioid crisis (Shelley Moore Capito of West Virginia) or provider subsidies in areas with higher cost insurance (Lisa Murkowski of Alaska). The battle over extended Medicaid coverage is the most painful for Senators like Capito, Rob Portman of Ohio, and Dean Heller of Nevada. Their states accepted the Medicaid deal in the Alternative Care Act and do not want to turn back, since it would throw as many as hundreds of thousands of their constituents off their insurance. These Senators know what McConnell is going to end up with will be a bad fiscal deal for their states, because the revenues those states receive to cover low income citizens will be capped, and the expenditures will not be. Almost all states face constitutional requirements that their budgets be balanced annually. When revenues go down, throwing people off Medicaid is always a leading alternative. The current proposal would cost states $218 billion in federal support between 2020 and 2029. Dean Heller’s own Republican Governor Bryan Sandoval hates these cuts a lot. And, Heller is up for reelection in 2018. Let’s concentrate our voices here. As you know, send Dean Heller emails and do phone calls that are your own words. Something like “You know that with this one vote you would do fiscal harm to this state for decades.” Here’s three Heller calls to make or emails to write: Legislative Assistant (for health care) Rachel Green rachel_green@heller.senate.gov (202) 224-6244 Legislative Director Sarah Paul sarah_paul@heller.senate.gov (202) 226-6244 Chief of Staff Mac Abrams mac_abrams@heller.senate.gov (202) 226-6244
2) Reinforcing Lisa Murkowski’s Planned Parenthood Defense
	Lisa Murkowski of Alaska joined Susan Collins of Maine as the two Republican Senators who voted against proceeding with consideration of the bill. One of their primary motivations is protecting Planned Parenthood, whose federal funding for broader women’s health services would be cut to zero. They have received some good news from the Senate parliamentarian, who has ruled that a provision to Planned Parenthood is not subject to the budget reconciliation process and therefore would require 60 votes to cut off debate, not 51. Murkowski can and will use this for leverage, but her ultimate opposition to repeal and replace is not as predictable as that of Susan Collins. The quality of reproductive health care in America may depend upon her ultimate vote. Now is a wonderful time to reinforce the strong stand she has taken on this issue. Here’s who to tell: Morgan Griffin Legislative Assistant (for health care) morgan_griffin@murkowski.senate.gov 202-224-6655
3) Make a Progress Payment
	It is a possibility that the Senate will pass a bill that will be the worst piece of legislation in the past two decades. The number one idea of this bill is to enable the significant reduction in the number of people who receive health care in America. What a shameful thing this is. Let’s make a contribution to taking back the House as a declaration that this will not stand. Between now and mid-August, Congress will pass a bill to repeal and provide a “replacement”, or they will not. Let’s keep fighting for the latter outcome, but let’s keep getting ready for November 6, 2018. Giving through Swing Left’s district funds is an excellent way to give to races that are sure to count, and to stockpile money to help recruit the best challengers.

This is going to keep going on. The Trump speech to the Boy Scouts is just one more day-to-day example that this man is unmoored by any understanding of what being President requires of him. There will be some more of this, no? And, of course, we will spend the fall on Mueller disclosures and actions unless Trump fires him before then and precipitates a constitutional crisis.

And then there is the Congress, clearly and resolutely taking the opposite course from Trump on sanctioning Russia. A number of commentators have opined that this is a symbol of Congress’ heightened resolve. Since members of Congress face almost no opposition in their districts to their being harder on Russia, it might be better to eschew the praise on this front.

So, we will expect more praiseworthy actions, at least from the Senate. Even if more such blessings appear, our relentlessness will continue. This is no time to avert our gaze or lose our focus.

David Harrison
Bainbridge Island, Washington

#18: A Sordid Implicit Deal Guides Republican Senators

Thank you for continuing to share these messages with your friends, if you are not already on our mailing list, please click here to be added to our list. You can also follow me on Facebook. The more people we can reach, the more we contribute to this growing movement. We share these posts on our blog, A Path Forward to November 3, 2020, every two weeks, which means there will be a total of 100 missives before the Presidential election of 2020, in which our country will select a whole new course.

This upcoming week will be consequential, again.

It may seem like Mitch McConnell won't get a Republican health care bill through the Senate, but don't be certain about that. The reason he continues to look for a way forward with this horrible, horribly unpopular bill is that he is convinced that his party will be in worse political trouble if they don't pass it than if they do. That's counterintuitive, but it comes down to this:

If you are a Republican Senator, you can choose between 1) passing it, and having independent voters be disgusted with you at least until the 2018 midterm elections (with a hope that you will find a way to mitigate that disgust), or 2) failing to pass it and having the 30-35% of the voters who are your base be outraged at you for an even longer period of time because you promised them Obamacare repeal for seven years.

McConnell's Senators can't win elections without the base, so he will continue to look for an opening, even though the political dangers of losing the independent vote are also huge, and even though working together we will make those dangers even greater. These Senators didn't expect Trump to win and make repeal even faintly possible, and their countless votes to repeal when the Democrats held the presidency were just political theatre. They are the dog that chased the car and can't figure out what to do when it caught it.

For eight months, Republicans have wondered and wrestled about what to do about Donald Trump. What they have come up with so far is the worst sort of bargain. Nearly every Republican in Congress has decided to sign on to this deal.

They get to criticize Donald Trump for thuglike or boorish behavior or nonsensical actions. They can compose and send clever tweets to signal their disapproval, or display a raised eyebrow to the cameras. With impunity, they can mitigate the worst of his budget proposals, maintain sanctions against Russia and anticipate reports from Richard Burr's Senate Judiciary Committee and special investigator Robert Mueller on election abuse.

That is what is permitted. In return, these Senators will vote for any Cabinet nominee, however unqualified. They will maintain the known fiction that Donald Trump is able to fulfill the office of President of the United States. They will let Trump and Scott Pruitt decimate the EPA and environmental law. They will stand by as he walks away from the most important global environmental effort ever. They will say a silent prayer to Tillerson and Mattis and watch as Trump destroys our nation's relationships with long time global partners, even those whose soldiers have died in wars we asked them to join.

This is a sordid implicit deal that guides the Senate Republicans. You can be in Congress for a long time without being personally subjected to the harsh judgments of history, but these Republican Senators will not have that luxury.

This is not and will not be permanent change in the bold American democratic experiment that has continued for 230 years with all its dreams and blemishes.

The mid-year elections of 2018 will foretell the return of a democratic, Democratic presidency in 2020. At some time in the not so distant future, we will look back and wonder how Republican Senators could have put the country and the Constitution at such peril.

And the answer will be that they couldn't bear to not get a little benefit out of Trump being president. They want some judicial appointments, some reductions in budgets of least favored agencies, and some tax cuts for people who do not need tax cuts. In a time where many of them know in their hearts that the President of their party is not capable of governing, they cannot bear to put country ahead of party.

As the full implications of the Trump presidency become known, it may be that we will be seeing fewer empty actions of Republican opposition and more principled actions. Maybe this will begin now with Republicans standing in the way of the McConnell health care proposal. There are some additional Senators finding their voice. Shelley Moore Capito of West Virginia said that her commitment is to vulnerable populations and that gives her the strength to provide the deciding "no" vote. John Hoeven of North Dakota is worried about the viability of rural hospitals if the bill passes, since as much as 70% of their revenue comes from Medicaid which will suffer serious reductions in funding. Conservative Jerry Moran of Kansas is worried about decreased protection for those with pre-existing conditions.

The rules of the Senate provide motivation for these Senators to set aside these concerns and go with McConnell. This is because the tax breaks for millionaires included in the present version of the Senate bill count as budgetary savings. Under budget reconciliation rules, they would be able to "use" these savings when they seek to "reform" the tax law by giving more tax cuts to people who don't need them. Because they have these savings, they would be able to pass a tax bill with 50 votes. I am not making this up.

We hope the access to care for many millions of people will prevail, and that we will return to health care that represents what we can do with and for each other. To help these notions carry the day, we need to do these three things.

1) Widening our List of Targeted Senators
	Let's respond to the relatively recent signals of three Senators, none of which were initially thought to be a possible "no" vote. Please call their principal legislative assistant for health care. Say that the Senator was right to voice her or his concerns, and that the problems with this bill are not going to go away. At this point it is all about the volume of calls, which is not a bad thing, because it reinforces the narrative that even in red states, Senators support this bad bill at their political peril. Call and/or email these three aides: Senator Hoeven: Dan Auger, Legislative Director daniel_auger@hoeven.senate.gov 202-224-2551 Senator Moran: Kyle Christian, Legislative Assistant kyle_christian@moran.senate.gov 202-224-6521 Senator Capito: Dana Richter, Legislative Assistant dana_richter@capito.senate.gov 202-224-6472
2) Speak Out for Rural Hospitals
	The dilemma faced by rural hospitals has received little attention during the health care debate. It has been overshadowed by Medicaid cuts, a diminution of protections for people with pre-existing conditions, and attempts to redefine and thus limit essential services. The Chartis Center for Rural Health has identified over 600 rural hospitals that are at risk. The National Rural Health Association vehemently urges a no vote.   See this as an issue that many Senators have ignored. Send the article to your own two Senators to reinforce their concerns if they have any, or to seek to develop some concerns if they have none.
3) Remember Key Environmental Battles
	Because of administrative rule making authority contained in many of the major environmental laws, Trump and Scott Pruitt have been able to make some inroads in weakening environmental regulations. Now environmental organizations are getting some traction on the Obama era rule requiring monitoring of methane emissions from public lands. Three Republican Senators joined Democrats in blocking the Trump rescission of the rule. When Trump and Pruitt moved to rescind the rule by executive order they were blocked by a lawsuit filed by the Natural Resources Defense Council and others. Let's celebrate by sending the NRDC a contribution to support this critical legal work.

The resistance continues. The recent disclosures on collusion with Russia may make Republican Senators a little bolder in any principled stands on Trump. Whether or not they become bolder we will prevail in these efforts. We do not have another option.

David Harrison
Bainbridge Island, Washington

#17: This Battle Will Consume the Summer

Thank you for continuing to share these messages with your friends, if you are not already on our mailing list, please click here to be added to our list. You can also follow me on Facebook. The more people we can reach, the more we contribute to this growing movement. We share these posts on our blog, A Path Forward to November 3, 2020, every two weeks, which means there will be a total of 100 missives before the Presidential election of 2020, in which our country will select a whole new course.

Republicans will control Congress during the first two years of Donald Trump's presidency. During that time, some proposal will be advanced that stands out for its unsurpassed venality. There will be competition, of course, because in the upcoming months, more things will happen that would previously have been thought to be unthinkable.

But nothing says reprehensible more than the relationship between two of the primary elements of the Senate Republican health care bill.

First, removal of a 3.8% tax on the investment income of wealthy individuals will give an average of $45,500 a year to each of the top 1% in income. Second, the bill would push 22 million people off coverage, including 16 million next year.

Is there no shame? Is this what we have come to in the level of avoidable human deprivation and misery we will permit in the wealthiest nation in the world? This battle will consume the summer, but why not stop this now?

Don't believe that the "moderate" Republican senators targeted by AARP as possible "NO" votes are indifferent about how you feel. They are terrified by how you feel! They know this bill is hugely unpopular. They are weighing the political damage of doing what they mindlessly promised to do (repeal Obamacare without having a replacement) against the political damage of not doing it. Put your hand on that scale.

It will take some acts of faith and some summoning of energy to keep on making the calls, writing the letters and standing in the way. We will all do it for the love of our country, and in fear for what it will otherwise become.

Know your arguments. The nine "moderates" (see #1 below) other than Susan Collins and Dean Heller are waiting to state their intentions in hopes that either 1) the outcome will be decided without them, or 2) majority leader McConnell will offer them a "side deal" that would make a yes vote more palatable. These side deals will all be ruses:

• If the Senate puts more money in to a special fund for the opioid crises, they will ignore the role that private insurance or Medicaid plays in paying for treatment.

• If they put some more money into Medicaid, but continue their planned cap on payments to the states (thus ending Medicaid's status as an entitlement program) they will delay bleeding people off their coverage for a few more months. But when the first recession comes and states must balance their budgets while receiving less tax revenue, Medicaid hemorrhaging will ensue.

• If they maintain that people with pre-existing conditions are guaranteed coverage, they will enact a provision that enrollees must go six months of getting sicker and sicker before their coverage begins.

If we had a parliamentary system, this government would fall right now. But, November 6, 2018 will come soon and with it a Trump-blocking House of Representatives.

Sure, taking the Georgia seat or one of the other special elections would have been rewarding. However, we are running way ahead of the Congressional elections of November, 2016. At this point, the new Democratic margins applied to contestable seats would give us 40 new Democratic House members, and we only need 24. Refer to Missive #8 for how to pick your race, and put yourself in motion.

For now, it's all about the health care bill. Under pressure, Mitch McConnell has delayed the bill until after the 4th of July recess, giving us a chance to make the vacation memorable by doing three things:

1) Contribute to the Congressional Barrage
	As outlined in Missive #16, the AARP and several health care organizations have targeted 11 Republican senators as the prime candidates to provide the three votes needed to defeat the Senate proposal. The virtue of adding your voice to the AARP position is that their effort is already well articulated, and is seen as powerful. When we call these senatorial offices, or email them, we are joining the barrage. If there is any chance to talk to a human, it won't be by calling the main number. Use the numbers below to call the district office for the senator. Dean Heller - Nevada (702) 388-6605 Lisa Murkowski - Alaska (907) 271-3735 Dan Sullivan - Alaska (907) 271-5915 Jeff Flake - Arizona (602) 840-1891 Joni Ernst - Iowa (515) 284-4574 Chuck Grassley - Iowa (515) 288-1145 Rob Portman - Ohio (614) 469-6774 Lamar Alexander - Tennessee (615) 736-5129 Bob Corker - Tennessee (615) 279-8125 Shelley Moore Capito - West Virginia (304) 347-5372 Cory Gardner - Colorado (303) 391-5777 Or, call the Senator's principal aide on health care, using this directory handily provided by Indivisible.
2) Making Certain There Are Consequences
	After the House passed their ignoble version of the health care bill, three organizations upped the ante on making certain votes to decimate health care would not go unnoticed. Act Blue, the Daily Kos and Swing Left have set up targeted escrow accounts to make certain strong candidates are well supported in swing districts, including districts where the Republican congressional candidate won, even though Clinton beat Trump, or other swing districts where Republican Congressmen voted to repeal the Affordable Care Act. Here's the Swing Left site. Let's each pick a dollar amount, multiply it by the number of times, Trump tweets in the next week and send the total amount in.
3) Bolster Health Care for All in Your Community
	Community Health Centers have been spread across the United States since the War on Poverty. They provide health care to the uninsured and the underinsured and they do their indispensable work in 9,000-neighborhoods and communities. Find out who is doing this critical work near you. Whether or not you can send them a check right now, make it your personal business to find out what their unmet needs are and who can help. Spread the word.

Early in the Revolution, Thomas Paine called for his fellow citizens not to be "summer soldiers" or "sunshine patriots."

We aren't in pitched battles with muskets and we don't need to be admonished. But it doesn't hurt to recall our anguish and fervor the day after the election, and the pledge we made to ourselves then. We can and will win this, but let's continue to fuel ourselves from that anguish and fervor.

David Harrison
Bainbridge Island, Washington