#25: Republican Senators Say a Prayer for Mattis, Tillerson and Kelly Every Day

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It has been almost a year. If this was a merely a presidency without grace, we would bear up under it with aplomb. But it is a bullying, incurious, relentlessly dishonest, scary presidency. Hence, our resistance.

For most of this year, the number one thing we need to do has been clear. We need to and plan to take back the House of Representatives on Tuesday, November 6, 2018. It is now just over a year away and the races are emerging. Our chances of getting the 24 seats we need are excellent. A new poll shows Democrats significantly leading the “generic” Congressional vote. We have more than a year to go, but our prospects are the best they have been. Of course, our prospects are good because of the awful damage that has been wrought upon our nation. That makes it a bit more difficult to celebrate.

Recently, Republican Senator Bob Corker of Tennessee said the greatest danger of this presidency is that its disdain for diplomacy and resultant reliance on “binary” options could lead us in the direction of World War III. This is the most serious of business, forcing us to BOTH take back the House and adopt a new number one project. That project must increase the number of Republican leaders who are actively speaking out to check the President’s excesses. As outlined most recently in missive #18 this is no easy thing.

One might think that Donald Trump’s unpopularity would give any Republican leader some “cover” under which to criticize him. After all, the narrative that Donald Trump has a solid, unquestioning and unflinching base is false. Somewhere around 20% of the Republicans who voted for him are not with him anymore, and he has hemorrhaged support from independents.

However, the remaining Trump supporters are of sufficient number to punish Republican officeholders not only for real slights, but for imagined slights. All of the recent Steve Bannon adventures recruiting candidates to oppose the Republican “establishment” are a Trump-blessed demonstration that there will be retribution for those that stray. Note that none of the primary Republican Senate critics of Trump (Murkowski, Corker, McCain, Collins, Sasse, Paul) are up for re-election in 2018. And, all have given him important support at critical junctures, though not on health care.

Corker maintains that there are a lot of Republican Senators who share his worries about global conflict, which is hard to doubt. But they are also glad that it is Corker who is talking, not them. Senators like Jeff Flake of Arizona toed the line on the health care votes, but all he has earned is an alt-right opponent in the primary and a strong Democratic candidate in the general election.

How do we increase the number of Republican dissenters? First, we develop a richer understanding of why they don’t want to do what we want them to do. Officeholders vary widely in how they seek to establish justice and promote the general welfare, but all of them think that’s what they are doing, and none of them want voters to tell them they can’t do it anymore. They vote with Trump for reasons of self-preservation, so that they can continue to serve, so that they will be able to do the good that they are doing, or (in some cases) that they think they are doing.

It gets complicated for them when their interest in self-preservation pulls them in two distinct directions. In an increasing number of states, Senators fear that the retribution from independent voters if they vote with Trump will outweigh retribution from the Trump “base” if they vote against Trump. Loud, intense, well-resourced, concerted opposition from all of us changes the equation. Senator Lisa Murkowski of Alaska wanted to do the right thing on health care, but you can bet that she was also weighing who she was going to make the maddest and how long they are going to stay mad.

Even with all of this weighing, it is important to remember that a Senator can always step forward out of pure principle. Ben Sasse of Nebraska is an example of this. He would be better off politically if he hadn’t asked if Trump was “recanting his oath of office” when he said NBC should have its broadcasting license (which it doesn’t hold in the first place) challenged.

Certainly, Senators are worried that Trump will start a war and that a lot of people will die. They say a prayer for Mattis, Tillerson and Kelly every day. Because they have these worries, you can ask them (or a Representative) to oppose Trump on foreign policy so that the republic will stand. But it never hurts to also be able to say that if they do not oppose Trump on foreign policy, there will be political consequences. Just be sure to follow up and help make it so.

There will be time to take on tax “reform” efforts and with them the re-kindling of the novel Republican notion that decreasing revenue by $2 trillion in tax cuts will not increase the deficit. For now, let’s do three things that will reinforce the signal to Republican Senators and Representatives that it is time for them to be counted:

1) Start Counting On Nebraska Senators
	Ben Sasse of Nebraska followed up with his criticism of Trump with this response to Sean Hannity of Fox News, who had taken him on for criticizing Trump: "Some of us still believe in the constitution".   Sasse has potential that all of us need to help him realize. Let’s thank him for standing up for the First Amendment and thus give him some positive reinforcement. Let’s make sure we get through my leaving a phone message, sending an email to him, and trying to get a personal message through. First, call the main line at: 202-224-4224 Then, email the Senator Finally, to make sure you get a human, call his Lincoln office at 402-476-1400 After that, take an interest in the other Nebraska Senator, Deb Fischer. She has supported Trump almost without exception, though she was somewhat troubled by his order regarding transgendered persons in the Armed Services. For all of her unyielding support, she has been attacked by Steve Bannon for failing to criticize Bob Corker when he criticized Donald Trump.  We aren’t going to turn Deb Fischer in our direction, but it would be good to show her she has been noticed. If you have extra energy on the Nebraska front, send her an email telling her that it will be a political test that America is watching for her to stand up to Bannon.
2) Thank Senator Bob Corker Profusely and Follow Him Closely
	Senator Bob Corker has a year left as the chair of the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations. He can do an enormous amount of good for America if he doesn’t start getting worn down by the attacks he is receiving.  Reinforce the good. Be a part of the “count” by emailing the Senator himself.   Then try to find your way around the curtain by writing a note to his foreign affairs counsel John Rader and tell him how important it is that the Senator attend to these matters on a daily basis: John Rader, Counsel Senate Foreign Relations Committee 423 Dirksen Senate Office Building Washington D.C 20510-6225
3) Make Sure Our Side of the Story is Well Articulated
	A year after Donald Trump was elected, the main voices of the opposition remain Senate Minority Leader Charles Schumer and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi. These two people were elected by their fellow Democrats as managers of their caucuses. They are imperfect national spokespeople to be the lead respondents to Trump. Email Michael Tyler, spokesperson for Democratic Party chair Thomas Perez and the Democratic National Committee. Tell him you are sitting out there hoping that they are working aggressively to groom and advance other elected officials to comment on the daily happenings in Washington D.C. Ask him what the DNC is doing on this front.

The rest of the fall will be all about the budget bill, keeping the government open, and tax “reform”. The central tax issue must remain the enormous and growing disparities in wealth distribution in America. The best thing you can say about the tax debate and related media coverage so far is that almost every story refers to the distributional impact by income level of various tax proposals.

On the global front, we need to persuade some Senators to imagine themselves as a part of Profiles in Courage. Or, in the alternative, let’s continue to show the political intensity that will make the principled stand of any Republic senator less courageous and more practical. Let’s make them more worried about our reaction than they are about Donald Trump’s reaction.

David Harrison
Bainbridge Island, Washington

#24: In No Way is Donald Trump a Populist

Thank you for continuing to share these messages with your friends, if you are not already on our mailing list, please click here to be added to our list. You can also follow me on Facebook. The more people we can reach, the more we contribute to this growing movement. We share these posts on our blog, A Path Forward to November 3, 2020, every two weeks, which means there will be a total of 100 missives before the Presidential election of 2020, in which our country will select a whole new course.

As this bizarre Presidency unfolds and unravels, the media has grown accustomed to labeling Donald Trump’s beliefs. The most accurate such description is “Trumpism”, which one imagines means the collective policy and political positions of Donald Trump. Of course that doesn’t get us very far in predicting behavior or establishing coherence.

Two other terms have come into vogue, both false and both affording Trump greater credence than he has earned. The first, “economic nationalism”, implies that much of Trump’s primary platform is to put the economic interests of the United States and its people far ahead of any economic interests of other countries and people.

This “truth” is not self-evident. Its genesis comes from Trump’s re-negotiation of some elements of NAFTA and his current trade battles with China, Canada and others. But putting our economic interests first requires us to have economic success over time, which we can’t achieve without having robust markets for our products. Being in constant conflict with other countries weakens us as a trading partner, recasts us as the bully in the marketplace, and risks serious trade wars that will cost us.

The even more problematic untruth is calling Trump a populist. The word populist is conveyed on someone “seeking to represent the interests of ordinary people.” Even the venerated New York Times cannot keep itself from calling Trump and his supporters “the populist wing” of the Republican Party as opposed to the “establishment wing.” So, the word populist conveys authenticity, pretending that the ultimate self-dealing, self-aggrandizing President is “of the people”. The real situation is that he is attending to the pretense of being of the people. With his approval levels declining significantly, the people are not so sure about it.

If Donald Trump is all about advancing the lives of ordinary people, see if he can pass this test:

• A populist wouldn’t propose “tax reform” that would personally save him a billion dollars by eliminating estate taxes on the wealthy.
• A populist would never spend each weekend using taxpayer dollars provided by ordinary people to fly to his various properties so that has can promote them.
• A populist wouldn’t think of filling his cabinet with billionaires who could not be more removed from America’s neighborhoods and communities.
• A populist would not use his presidency to regularly attack any woman who dares to stand up to him.
• An authentic populist would not ignore and leave us vulnerable to the enormous impacts of climate change, which will have the greatest impact on people with fewer resources.

This fall will be all about tax reform. It begins with the fiction as well that huge tax reductions for the very wealthy and for corporations will produce economic growth and tax revenue so great that it will wipe out the $1.5 trillion shortfall that the tax cuts create. This is being said with a straight face by Republicans who cut taxes six times in the days of George W. Bush and never saw such revenues appear. Reagan budget director David Stockman calls Trump’s tax proposals an “aspirational air ball”. That is being kind.

It’s the new battle, and one worth fighting with everything we’ve got. The fundamental question is whether we want the awful wealth maldistribution in America to get even worse, because everything Ryan and Trump have thrown out so far would make it so. The present Trump sketch would give 50% of the tax relief to people making over $700,000 a year. From the Center for Budget and Policy Priorities comes this succinct review of what would be wrought. 

Let’s accelerate. Republicans have already set in motion a reconciliation process which means they will only need to get 50 votes in the Senate. This will be hard to do, because John McCain is a likely no, and a number of other Republican Senators including Rand Paul are worried about increasing the deficit. Much like the successful battle that lead to the survival of the Affordable Care Act, we will need to start with “moderate” Republicans in the Senate as we insist on a fair and equitable tax reform bill. Because 20 or so Republican House members are upset with spending cuts insisted upon by the Freedom Caucus, there may some insisting that we can do in the House as well.

Here are three things that we can do today:

1) Spread the Truth About the Estate Tax
	There is no federal taxation on estates of less than $5.5 million for an individual and $11 million for a couple, and the marginal tax rate has been lowered over the years. Donald Trump just told a very big lie. He said that “millions” of farmers and small businesses would be freed from having to sell their holdings to pay the tax if we only eliminate the tax. The number of farmers and farms that would be subject to the estate tax next year will be around 80. These are huge multi-million dollar farm operations, and even those are afforded an extended payment schedule so that they can keep their farms within their families. The bulk of the benefits from estate tax elimination would instead go to people who have assets like Donald Trump, not the farmer with some plentiful acreage and row crops near you. As noted, Trump himself would save an estimated billion dollars. Nice work if you can get it. It is critical that we set the record straight, and this analysis can help you do that. You could write a letter to your local newspaper, which is still out there. You could advance the politifact.com posting through social media, or email the link to your friends. Either way, this misinformation cannot be allowed to stand, and the wealthiest Americans should not be allowed to hide behind the American farmer.
2) Focus on Key Moderate Republicans
	The vote of Senator Bob Corker of Tennessee may determine whether a Trump-like proposal makes it through the Senate Finance Committee and is sent to the floor. That’s because politically proportionate representation on that key committee yields only a one vote edge, with 10 Republicans and 9 Democrats. Corker has already expressed concerns about the tax proposal but he has also agreed to let the budget process go forward at least temporarily. It includes a predicted tax reform related $1.5 trillion revenue loss over the next ten years. Famously, he has called into question Trump’s “stability” and “competence”, and he has already announced he is not running for re-election. He is against adding to the deficit. He is as free to do the right thing as he is ever going to be. You can help him think about what the right thing is. Since he has already argued against increasing the deficit, Donald Trump and Mitch McConnell will try to make certain he is fine with the proposition that $1.5 trillion in revenue losses will be offset by revenue gains from a boosted economy. It has never been so. Please write and call to tell Bob Corker that. Senator Bob Corker Email Phone: 202-224-3344 In the House, Charlie Dent of Pennsylvania is leader of the Tuesday group. These are “moderates” but not at all in the way that moderation used to be in the heart of the Republican party. Charlie Dent and some of his colleagues are feeling badly that some of them were driven by Republican leadership to “walk the plank”. They voted to repeal the Affordable Care Act, which turned out to be all pain and no gain since repeal didn’t pass the Senate. To make things worse, Donald Trump called the House Republican version “mean” after he got their votes. All this means that these Republicans are feeling wronged, and they are being asked to accept social welfare and other spending cuts that Senate Republicans will never ratify. Charlie Dent is already used to being criticized by Trump, and he is not running for re-election. Please write and call him and say that it is time for him to be counted and to lead the Tuesday group Republicans down a new path. Representative Charlie Dent Email Phone: 202-225-6411
3) Support Tax Justice Advocates
	Some battles need relentless advocacy, and that is what Citizens for Tax Justice has been providing for years. This would be an outstanding time to click and donate. They won’t necessarily be in the room when final decisions are made, or when the 50th Senate vote is gained by one side of the other. But they will have fueled the arguments for tax equity. The case for tax reform that doesn’t upend the American people would be far less powerful were it not for their efforts.

Certainly, this has become a slog. The good news about Donald Trump’s day to day behavior is it never creates self-doubt in all of us on whether we should resist! Let’s all keep doing what we are doing. Don’t forget to choose a Congressional campaign or two. This is no time to let up.

David Harrison
Bainbridge Island, Washington

#23: We Have Never Had Any Choice But to Take Back the House

EMERGENCY ALERT: We interrupt this post that is focused on other dangers and threats. There is an emerging threat that the Graham-Cassidy effort to repeal the Affordable Care Act will be brought to the Senate floor this week. Please email these Senators and beseech them not to play along on this all new scheme to take health care away from the Americans who most need it: 

• Morgan Griffin, Legislative Aide for Lisa Murkowski, Alaska 
  Steve Abbott, Chief of Staff for Susan Collins, Maine 
  David Bennett, Legislative Aide for John McCain, Arizona 
  Rachel Green, Legislative Aide for Dean Heller, Nevada

Thank you for continuing to share these messages with your friends, if you are not already on our mailing list, please click here to be added to our list. You can also follow me on Facebook. The more people we can reach, the more we contribute to this growing movement. We share these posts on our blog, A Path Forward to November 3, 2020, every two weeks, which means there will be a total of 100 missives before the Presidential election of 2020, in which our country will select a whole new course.

It’s time to collect ourselves as we (and so many others) continue this largely successful effort to curb the countless excesses of Donald Trump, and thus protect our nation. It is also the time to make certain our fervor does not dissipate.

We all have done better in the past 10 months than we might have expected. The Affordable Care Act is wounded but it stands. The wall is unbuilt, proposed State Department cuts have been pushed back, Russia has been sanctioned and Planned Parenthood is funded. On the other end of the ledger, a new Supreme Court Justice has been confirmed, executive orders have diminished the environment, and the President has regularly contributed to international instability. Ahead of us is a major battle over taxation, and the extent to which tax “reform” exacerbates or alleviates huge wealth disparities in our country.

We never have had any choice but to take back the House in November of 2018, and the chances are very good that we will accomplish that goal. More moderate Republican members of Congress like Charlie Dent of Pennsylvania and Dave Reichert of Washington have announced they are not seeking reelection, making their swing districts far more vulnerable for Democratic takeover. We need 24 seats to take back control of the House, and could get more than 40.

The key word is could. First, there is no danger that Donald Trump is going to significantly increase his voter approval. The John Kelly molded man seeking to look presidential will return to the true mold each time Kelly looks the other way. The unfettered, uninformed and unprincipled Trump is the essence of the man.

So that may mean that the biggest impediment to taking back the House is us. Pogo said “We have met the enemy and they are us.” We must defend against three ways we could take ourselves down. We could pull defeat out of the jaws of victory in the fall of 2018 with no cohesion, or no leaders, or no ideas.

The first test is how people who previously Sanders and Clinton work together. So far, the signs are encouraging. Neither Sanders nor Clinton is going to be the 2020 nominee, and their strongest supporters know that already, which is freeing. There will be meaningful Democratic policy/political differences in scores of Congressional primaries, but those can strengthen us. Additionally, the fears that “identity politics” will make us less than our collective sum are not founded. Passion fuels us. By November of 2018, we need to display unity, not uniformity.

Who will lead us is the bigger question. Did we not realize during the reign of Harry Reid that having the Senate Minority Leader as our spokesperson on the evening news will inevitably become a problem? Good minority leaders are tacticians. They relentlessly attend to the key concerns of each Democratic Senator. They automatically illuminate their political sides. The clear articulation of our aspirations and agenda is not the prime gift of either Chuck Schumer or Nancy Pelosi. Hopefully, this need will start to get filled when various presidential aspirants start to appear. The New York Times has given its sought after attention to eight candidates.  

And, of course, we must and will become sharper about the why, the reasons why Americans should select our candidates rather than those allied to Trump. Some of these more refined positions will come out of Democratic primary races. These will be especially pointed in their disputes over international trade, within a party that houses both protectionists and free traders. The policy focus which will not emerge naturally is the interwoven series of initiatives that will respond anew to uneven economic opportunity in America’s regions. Actually, Democrats have been addressing these for some time, but it is not clear the public has been aware of that. It is broken and must be fixed.

All together, we give the resistance to Trump unbounded energy. That energy will drive and improve the responses to the three above challenges of cohesion, leadership and ideas.

If our indispensable weekly attention to these matters is waning, a little, then we will be less likely to gain the outcome we seek. Here are three things we personally can do to sharpen our engagement:

1) Please, please, please pick your Congressional campaign
	Campaigns are won or lost from their inception, not on the day the results are posted. We all felt Trump-generated despair from the moment he got the sufficient Comey-boost to gain election. We looked for every opportunity to fully and genuinely resist. Even if you have never picked a campaign in the past, it is time to pick one now. Read the newspaper to decide which, if any, Congressional races near you are going to be heavily contested. There will be 60 or so at least somewhat competitive races so you are going to find one, even if you have to consider a neighboring state. Use the excellent online resources which are available to help you sort things out. These include Indivisible and Swing Left either of which can help you sort out targeted races. Even though they have been excruciatingly absent from the organizing side of the picture, get on the e-mailing list of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. Also make it a point to keep tabs on your state Democratic party. After you pick your race, go see the candidate or one of her or his aides if they are within driving distance. If you don’t live in their district, join an Indivisible cell or other organizing group that will “adopt” the candidate. If such a group doesn’t already exist, organize it yourself. Do not be discouraged if there already five or six candidates indicating their interest. Pick the one who you find compelling. Even if your candidate isn’t the one moving forward, you will be adding to our collective strength.
2) Where you have special skills, advance them.
	Take an inventory of your skills. Start by making yourself good at door-to-door work. Eventually every campaign finds these resources essential, not just as a tool for swaying voters but even more as a tool to make certain we identify who is with us so we can get them to the polls. In 2016 we did not get the voter turnout we hoped for in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. That should provide some motivation. What other skills do you have? Can you raise money? Could you give money, even in the form of a monthly pledge? Organize events? Could you participate in or lead a letter writing campaign, or organize social media? Intermediaries are cropping up to make certain people with high-demand skills get found. Tech for Campaigns is an organization that is recruiting and deploying all manner of technology-savvy people.
3) Start your own voter registration campaign
	Even if you live in an enclave where people are red hot about their politics, you are surrounded by people who aren’t registered to vote. Or you know some people in other places who haven’t registered. They are young and haven’t got into the voting habit, or they have moved, or maybe they are disenchanted with the present situation. (How could that possibly be the case?) How about figuring out how to do a voter registration drive this winter and spring among high school seniors who are just turning 18.  Or, emphasize the 35 states who offer online voter registration. Scroll down on this site, find the link to online registration in your target state, and send the link to people you suspect have yet to register.

There will always be countless issues on which we must engage, and new Trumpian horrors to confront. Trump says that in all of his bullying, his disregard for even the most basic of truths, and his relentless promotion of himself and his properties, he is being “presidential” in a “modern” way. Could you imagine anything further from the truth than that? Or anything more motivating for all of us.

We continue to seek the day that we can say that it is a former President that said such a thing. It is a good time to re-assess how each of us is doing, and to determine and do what is necessary.

David Harrison
Bainbridge Island, Washington

#22: We Must Prevent Him From Afflicting the Afflicted and Comforting the Comfortable

Thank you for continuing to share these messages with your friends, if you are not already on our mailing list, please click here to be added to our list. You can also follow me on Facebook. The more people we can reach, the more we contribute to this growing movement. We share these posts on our blog, A Path Forward to November 3, 2020, every two weeks, which means there will be a total of 100 missives before the Presidential election of 2020, in which our country will select a whole new course.

This fall will bring a whole new set of issues which must be engaged by those who are worried about how our country will move forward. The summer recess by Congress removed the sporadically achieved "regular order" that John McCain sought.

In its place, we got Donald Trump even more unmoored, lurching through Charlottesville and Steve Bannon's departure, throwing out random Korea threats, seeking approval from Fox News and from late night calls with cronies. He has the most tortured nights at the White House since Abraham Lincoln walked at midnight. How awful it must feel to have only tweets and calling Roger Stone as your solace.

There will be a broader set of crises this fall - North Korea, Robert Mueller's progress, the Hurricane Harvey aftermath and with it the realization that Donald Trump has no capacity to lead the response. Notably, there will be an effort this fall by a bipartisan group of senators to shore up the health insurance markets that Donald Trump has roiled.

However, the best opportunities this fall for the millions of us who are dedicated to resistance will come in the areas of budget, finance and tax. Congress will determine whether and how the debt ceiling will be raised, how the government will be funded for the next several months, and how our taxes will be "reformed".

These are not just numbers on the page. Regarding the extension of government spending into December or January, we either will have a funded and functioning State Department and Foreign Service or we will not. Huge budget cuts for the EPA can be prevented. The modest Federal support of Planned Parenthood can be maintained. And, we can remove Donald Trump's thumb from the eye of the Mexican people by not building the wall.

Two forces will converge in assisting us in meeting these goals. First, Republicans are not unmindful that Donald Trump's criticisms of them can damage them politically, but they are still more worried about him and less scared of him than at any time since he was elected.

Secondly, and as important, the rules of the Senate will strengthen the hands of the Democrats by requiring 60 votes to close off debate on both the budget resolution and the increase in the debt ceiling. This will give Charles Schumer and his Senate Democrat colleagues plenty of leverage.

In the House, the Freedom Caucus will want significant Medicaid cuts as a part of a deal to increase the debt ceiling. Paul Ryan may have to make a deal with Democrats to keep the government open, which in turn could imperil his speakership. To him and to Mitch McConnell, Donald Trump is no help on any of this.

Tax reform will test the resistance, because Democratic members of Congress have some interest in adjusting the levels of corporate taxation, seeking to boost companies to higher levels of international competitiveness. Here's where the devil will be there with the details. Past tax reform efforts have exacerbated the growing wealth maldistribution that plagues America. Corporate tax reductions of the recent past have not resulted in levels of corporate investment in people, plants, and equipment that policymakers have projected.

Donald Trump, in the face of all these challenges, will want to afflict the afflicted and comfort the comfortable. These three actions can make certain we go in the right direction:

1) Senator Schumer, Tear Down That Wall
	Donald Trump still wants to build the wall. As he told Mexican President Peña Nieto in January he needs to do so because he promised his base he would. To the rest of us this is not a compelling reason to proceed. Certainly, there is political significance for him winning or losing this battle, but this proposal is about a greater crime - treating another nation as Trump lackeys and living a lie about Mexico. The good news is that the Senate rules and Trump's unpopularity are giving Democrats more traction on budget items. However, with that traction comes the promising but delicate opportunity to trade with Republican leadership, securing a gain on one front while making a sacrifice on another. Write minority leader Schumer's key staff member and tell her that for millions of us any building of the wall is not acceptable. Meghan Taira Legislative Director (202) 224-6542 meghan_taira@schumer.senate.gov
2) Confront Tax Reform as a Wealth Disparity Issue
	It's easy to get lost in the technical complexity of tax reform. It's that complexity that could make it possible for there to be some bipartisan support for a reduction in corporate tax rates without anyone sufficiently addressing ways to address wealth disparities and the continued gilding of the very rich. Corporate tax reform is a new opportunity for Mitch McConnell to pick off Democratic senators from states which Donald Trump won, including Heidi Heitkamp from North Dakota, Joe Manchin from West Virginia and Claire McCaskill from Missouri. Email these three legislative directors and tell the Senator for whom they work to demand tax fairness as an indispensable element of any bill they support: janelle_mcclure@mccaskill.senate.gov tracee_sutton@heitkamp.senate.gov wesley_kunge@manchin.senate.gov Check Americans for Tax Fairness for any underlying information you need.
3) Re-gear for Planned Parenthood
	The defeat of the "skinny" health care bill with John McCain's dramatic thumbs-down saved Planned Parenthood funding for now. This battle will remain pitched until we take back the House in 2018. As outlined in missive #19, Senator Lisa Murkowski of Alaska is our leader and deserves our thanks. Attention must now be paid to strengthen an already strong reproductive freedom movement. Planned Parenthood has an all new initiative built around the defense and advocacy for 600 clinics around the country and they are looking for more help from you today.

It just keeps on. Donald Trump says he loves dreamers except when he kicks them out of the country. He loves Harvey victims except when he treats the whole disaster like his own reality tv show.

He sees South Korea and China as major partners fighting the dangers of Kim Jong-un except for when he tweet-trashes them.

As a movement, we continue to grow. We are parrying everywhere we can and we are having great success. This demands our concentration every week as new offenses emerge, but there is no question that all of us together are up to this job.

David Harrison
Bainbridge Island, Washington

#21: We Will Demonstrate Our Love for Our Country and its Promise

Thank you for continuing to share these messages with your friends, if you are not already on our mailing list, please click here to be added to our list. You can also follow me on Facebook. The more people we can reach, the more we contribute to this growing movement. We share these posts on our blog, A Path Forward to November 3, 2020, every two weeks, which means there will be a total of 100 missives before the Presidential election of 2020, in which our country will select a whole new course.

In some ways the first eight months of the Trump presidency has turned out as predicted, and feared. Too bad for the country that in other ways, it has been worse.

Donald Trump has demonstrated an unparalleled inability to mute or even check himself, even when the times have most demanded it. And, when the time has come to learn things he needs to know about how a governmental program operates, he has no interest. He is unmoored and undisciplined and unprincipled.

Republican leaders have mastered the art of the meaningful aside, where they note their concerns about this or that Presidential action or position but provide no real opposition. Most often, all this represents is just a little hedging of the bets, as they see his approval levels dropping. This level of inaction is even more disappointing because these Republican Senators know a lot more about Trump’s failings than we do. But now there are notable exceptions to their toeing of the line.

• Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski and John McCain stopped the health care bill.
• The Senate sanctioned Russia in part for election interventions, and left Trump powerless to do anything about it.
• Key Republican Senators signaled that they will protect Robert Mueller.

Over time, the recent statement by Senator Bob Corker of Tennessee may be the most telling. He is the chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, has had good relations with Trump, and he is a long way from being a moderate. He said: “The President has not yet been able to demonstrate the stability nor some of the competence that he needs to demonstrate for him to be successful… Recently he has not demonstrated that he understands the character of the nation.”

This was not a spontaneous outburst. This was a signal that Corker is not just concerned, but gravely concerned. As well he should be.

It is also a sign that the resistance in all of its sprawling intensity continues to be a force. Corker and others will find a better path faster with our continued help.

There is lore that through it all the Trump voters are standing by their man. There have been countless national news stories interviewing Trump supporters in swing states, the reporter nodding her or his head meaningfully while a voter says they like it that Trump says what he thinks. The polls tell a different story. Reflective of Trump’s decline in popularity, 20% or more of Trump’s voters have walked away from him.

Odds are Trump will not be in a position to run in 2020. So, the big referendum will be the Congressional elections of 2018. The most important polling number is the “generic” Congressional vote. Right now, we are polling 8 points ahead, which would roughly equate to winning 40 additional seats, which would take back the House.

This is not inevitable. Good Democratic House and Senate candidates are emerging, but we will need a stronger, clearer unified message beyond the current “Can you believe Donald Trump is president?” And we will need a fresh generation of national leaders. This will all come in time. For now, let’s remember that no one should ever be able to call into question our focus and our stamina.

While Congress is on recess, let’s attend to the attacks Donald Trump is making on the executive branch. The president has considerable leeway to weaken cabinet agencies, so we must target our efforts as carefully as possible. Let’s do these three things.

1) Fight to Save America’s Standing Abroad
	The good news on these three recommended items is that Republican Senators have already signaled that the federal budget that emerges will ignore the most draconian of Trump’s proposals. The least favorite of all the cuts among Senators is the 32% cut in the State Department’s budget and proposed reduction of 2,300 positions.  Now is a good time to generate an email to your own two Senators telling them how much you appreciate the bipartisan support of the State Department. Tell your Senator that the cuts that are proposed would diminish our nation’s role in the world, would endanger Americans abroad, and would move us toward militarizing more conflicts. Then write a note to Senator Bob Corker’s chief of staff and tell him how much you appreciate his Senator’s role in protecting the integrity of the State Department. Chief of Staff Todd Womack is at todd_womack@corker.senate.gov.
2) Help Protect the Environmental Protection Agency
	There are at least three major reasons why it is more difficult to protect the EPA than the State Department. First, Donald Trump named Scott Pruitt as EPA Administrator, who makes Rex Tillerson look outstanding. Second, many major environmental laws provide considerable discretion to the President in their enforcement. Third, a lot of Republican Senators are on board with a significant reduction in environmental regulation. Nonetheless, environmental organizations have started to get some footing on EPA rule-making, as outlined in missive #18. In addition to the well-known major battlers like the Natural Resources Defense Council and the Sierra Club, there is an excellent, feisty, smaller organization focused almost entirely on the EPA which is led by former staff members. If you are already an environmental donor or have a hankering, the Environmental Integrity Project is a great place for you to head.
3) Defend Our National Monuments
	Since the passage of the Antiquities Act at Teddy Roosevelt’s urging in 1906, Presidents have been establishing National Monuments. Now under a Trump executive order, Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke is reviewing whether to decommission or cut back 21 monuments that previous presidents have established. There is not an easy way into this issue. The President’s use of the Antiquities Act will be challenged, since it is not clear whether these powers exist in the form that he expects to use them. There will be a back and forth for some time, including sidebar discussions with individual Republican members of Congress whose districts house the monuments. However, there is one good thing to do right now. The clothing retailer Patagonia has played a key role among outdoor companies in trying to get Zinke to cut back his cutbacks. REI and other companies have also joined this effort.  Please take a minute to write an email to patagoniapress@patagonia.com to thank them for their efforts, which hopefully will grow.

So, it goes. The rabid tweets and made up stories about General Pershing and thank you to Vladimir Putin for expelling embassy staff are not aberrations. They are the essence of this President. His further downfall is that as much as he says otherwise, he cares what you think. His rallies every couple of weeks are nothing more than an effort to get him some love. When that love isn’t forthcoming, and when you and millions of others seek a different course, he will lash out.

This is the way it is going to be for some time. Given his unsteadiness, it may or may not be four years. However long it is, we will maintain our intensity. We will ground ourselves in a rich understanding of what is transpiring and what we can do about it, and we will demonstrate our love for our country and its promise.

David Harrison
Bainbridge Island, Washington

#20: Here's The Best Thing to Say About This Mess

Thank you for continuing to share these messages with your friends, if you are not already on our mailing list, please click here to be added to our list. You can also follow me on Facebook. The more people we can reach, the more we contribute to this growing movement. We share these posts on our blog, A Path Forward to November 3, 2020, every two weeks, which means there will be a total of 100 missives before the Presidential election of 2020, in which our country will select a whole new course.

It seems interminable, but Donald Trump has been President for barely more than a half year. With the investigation by special prosecutor Robert Mueller, he may not make it four years. But the odds are greater that he will. Sure, most Republicans in the House and Senate would prefer to have Mike Pence as President. However, if they participate in any kind of induced departure they will severely split their party for 2020 and beyond, much worse than the split they have at present.

The President’s performance so far has been poorer than many of us imagined it would be. Our country is being “led” by an international bully. He is scandalously ignorant on countless major issues. His tendency to deny he said what he said or meant what he meant is unequaled in the history of the American presidency. Here’s the best thing to say about this mess.

Trump’s current huge disapproval levels are associated with Democrats taking back 45 seats in the House in November of 2018. We need to get 24 to regain the majority. Yes, we are fully capable of pulling defeat out of the jaws of victory but right now the good news is that the intensity of the resistance and Trump’s performance have placed us in a strong position. It is hard to be relentless for 16 months, but that is what will be called for.

Republicans need 60 votes to pass a budget in the Senate. They don’t want to shut down the government for lack of a budget, since voters would be unenthused about such a tactic. So, they will need to compromise with Democratic Senators, which in turn means no real progress for Trump on his wall. During the rest of the summer and early fall, the action will shift to the need to pass an increase in the national debt ceiling. Stay tuned for a wild time.

Members of Congress have gone home and Donald Trump has headed for a 17 day stay at a New Jersey golf club he owns. The news may slow down a bit over this period, and it is time to take stock. What we find are glimmers that Trump’s own party will stand up to him now and again when it counts, that their disquiet is growing and that they no longer think that their ties to him on health care and tax policy are advantageous.

The push back by Republicans on Russia sanctions and on Robert Mueller is not insignificant, but it is also not sufficient. (See missive #18 on the nature of the sordid deal that keeps them from stepping in much more often.) Furthermore, few, if any, of their interventions would be taking place if it were not for the massive citizen resistance to Trump and his resultant low popularity among voters.

The Senate Republicans are still askew after the huge drama of John McCain asking for “regular order” (the normal functioning of the Senate under its rules) and voting against Mitch McConnell’s “skinny” health care bill. They are extremely unlikely to find another path to 50 votes anytime soon. The signal of a new direction came from Republican leader John Thune of South Dakota, who in the face of taunting tweets from Trump said, “Maybe lightning will strike… but I am not holding my breath.”

Senator Lamar Alexander (chair of the Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor and Pensions) has joined with the ranking Democrat on the Committee (Patty Murray of Washington) to announce public hearings in September on how to shore up the very health care exchanges and markets that Trump is deliberately destabilizing. There are similar bi-partisan discussions in the House. None of these things would have happened were it not for the intensive efforts of citizens across America. What better motivation could there be to redouble these efforts? 

During the Congressional break is a great time for us to attend to our broader efforts to renew our country. Here’s three things we can do:

1) Make Certain We are Allied With Key Organizers
	It is a good thing that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is not the only force or even the primary force behind organizing us all to take back the House. Indivisible has been indispensable in spurring local activity and Swing Left, after an uneven start, has done its own good job of targeting winnable districts. Organizing for Action is now accelerating its activity.   There is enough work to go around. Organizing for Action (once called Obama for America) has excellent ties to Barack and Michelle Obama, proven organizing savvy, and good ties to potential Democratic candidates. They are another very good choice as we all figure out the best place to ally ourselves and apply our energies.  Now is not the time to wonder which Congressional race or races to dive into. Now is the time to decide which race to dive into. For those who live in a safe Democratic district and whose member of Congress is doing a good job, often a swing district is nearby and is already in play. Many local Indivisible groups have adopted races, and Indivisible, Swing Left and others are doing a good job of examining and identifying which races to target. Jump in now. Early money, and early organizing strength is like yeast.
2) Don’t Forget “Down Ballot” Races
	2010 was awful year in American politics. A number of state legislatures garnered Republican majorities and thus were empowered to manage redistricting processes. In some states like Wisconsin, North Carolina and Texas, egregious forms of gerrymandering ensued. In a few instances, the approach has been addressed by the courts, who may ultimately develop new means of determining at what point a gerrymandered district has violated constitutional standards. In the meantime, we must get more oriented toward down ballot races for the State Legislature. These will ultimately determine who will be in the majority in state capitals after the 2020 elections. Additionally, state legislatures are playing a key role in pushing back against Trump’s assaults on health care an environment regulations. There is an excellent way to pick a key state legislative race and lend your financial or other support. The new organization Sister Districts will match you up with work to be done in specific key races.
3) Make Sure People are Registered
	In previous issue of this missive, we have emphasized the considerable ongoing voting efforts of Mi Familia. Recognizing that several states have increased the opportunity for online registration, Voto Latino is an important place to provide support, since they emphasize online approaches.

With the unfortunate last-minute announcement of James Comey, with the illegal involvement of the Russians and their possible collusion by Trump, with the errors in our own efforts, we lost by 70,000 votes spread over Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. What a horrible thing to have so many efforts on global alliances, climate change, health care, reproductive freedom and countless other progressive strategies turn to ash on a single day.

But it couldn’t be any clearer that we have already risen from the ashes and dusted ourselves off. The worst of American Republicanism, its shielding of people of privilege from the challenges of the world, its me-only obsession, is now out in the open. We know what we are fighting against, and it is already abundantly clear that we can win. So let’s win.

David Harrison
Bainbridge Island, Washington

#19: A Republic If You Can Keep It

Thank you for continuing to share these messages with your friends, if you are not already on our mailing list, please click here to be added to our list. You can also follow me on Facebook. The more people we can reach, the more we contribute to this growing movement. We share these posts on our blog, A Path Forward to November 3, 2020, every two weeks, which means there will be a total of 100 missives before the Presidential election of 2020, in which our country will select a whole new course.

During the Constitutional Convention, Benjamin Franklin was approached by a citizen in a Philadelphia square outside the closed meetings. The woman said “Well, Doctor, what do we have, a republic or a monarchy?” And Dr. Franklin said, “A republic, if you can keep it.”

And so, we have tended for 230 years to our collective commitment to self-determination and the freedoms it generates. As a country, we have done some awful things and harbored searing injustices, but we have kept the republic. As much as there is a beacon anywhere for long-lasting democracy, we represent that beacon, however great its disrepair. We will not let that light dim through the actions of a man who has not been and will not be fit to be president.

When he swore an oath, we swore one too. His is not going well. Tweeting away on health care, he has displayed no understanding of either the system he wants to replace or what would come next. Worse, he has no need nor desire to understand these things. He said recently, “They are always talking about death. Obamacare is death”. In his public discourse, he is one short step away from “So’s your old man.”

In Washington, he has been found out by his own staff and cabinet heads, who know he wants sycophants. The Congress is about to pass sanctions on Russia that take us in the opposite direction from the Putin political embrace for which Trump had been yearning. Things are getting harder and harder for him as weeks go by. He watches Fox & Friends for their creative interpretation of the world, and tweets the night away. With the Mueller investigation and the Trumpian raging at Jeff Sessions, it is difficult to see his performance or voter approval improving.

Our oath is going well. Under these circumstances it is hard to take much joy in that, but the preliminary results are in. All together we have created a movement that will be sustainable throughout the four or fewer years of the Trump presidency. Trump’s support from independents has deteriorated. As Gallup notes, the average presidential approval rating by independents is 53%. Trump’s has fallen to 36%. Further, the news story about how his Republican base is undaunted is misleading. Support has lessened, and fewer than 30% of those polled are identifying as Republican in the first place.

Currently, it is not a problem that ours is a movement that has just a little coordination, innumerable priorities, no single leader, and an indistinct affirmative agenda. Certainly, all those things will have to change over time. For now, it is a blessing that we are sprawling and spirited and that we are not a Democratic Party project. Indivisible has been nearly indispensable, but there are countless initiatives and an unabated fervor. If you have remained fervent yourself, please keep that up.

If you have found your fervency flagging a little bit over time, or you are at least a little less focused that you had been, you may be forgetting how much you matter. Sorry to say, but the only way this works is that we all must remain relentless. For motivation, how about reminding yourself how you felt the morning after the election? If you have stopped being a participant and started being a spectator instead, come back right now, please.

The successful motion to proceed to the amendment process does not mean that the Senate will repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act, because they still don’t have 50 votes behind any course of action. Their first two major actions failed 57-43 (comprehensive bill) and 55-45 (repeal without replace). However, as described in missive #18, many Republican Senators are still thinking that it will be better for them over time if they pass a deeply unpopular bill to repeal and replace than if they refuse to do so. The national outpouring, the calls and emails and notes that you and your neighbors have sent, has already placed them in a deep quandary. Here are three things right now that will make it deeper:

1)Targeting State Fiscal Issues
	Mitch McConnell is going to use the upcoming amendment process to gauge how he can get to 50 votes. He has been inducing individual senators, trying to give them political “cover” by spending more on their key concerns, like the opioid crisis (Shelley Moore Capito of West Virginia) or provider subsidies in areas with higher cost insurance (Lisa Murkowski of Alaska). The battle over extended Medicaid coverage is the most painful for Senators like Capito, Rob Portman of Ohio, and Dean Heller of Nevada. Their states accepted the Medicaid deal in the Alternative Care Act and do not want to turn back, since it would throw as many as hundreds of thousands of their constituents off their insurance. These Senators know what McConnell is going to end up with will be a bad fiscal deal for their states, because the revenues those states receive to cover low income citizens will be capped, and the expenditures will not be. Almost all states face constitutional requirements that their budgets be balanced annually. When revenues go down, throwing people off Medicaid is always a leading alternative. The current proposal would cost states $218 billion in federal support between 2020 and 2029. Dean Heller’s own Republican Governor Bryan Sandoval hates these cuts a lot. And, Heller is up for reelection in 2018. Let’s concentrate our voices here. As you know, send Dean Heller emails and do phone calls that are your own words. Something like “You know that with this one vote you would do fiscal harm to this state for decades.” Here’s three Heller calls to make or emails to write: Legislative Assistant (for health care) Rachel Green rachel_green@heller.senate.gov (202) 224-6244 Legislative Director Sarah Paul sarah_paul@heller.senate.gov (202) 226-6244 Chief of Staff Mac Abrams mac_abrams@heller.senate.gov (202) 226-6244
2) Reinforcing Lisa Murkowski’s Planned Parenthood Defense
	Lisa Murkowski of Alaska joined Susan Collins of Maine as the two Republican Senators who voted against proceeding with consideration of the bill. One of their primary motivations is protecting Planned Parenthood, whose federal funding for broader women’s health services would be cut to zero. They have received some good news from the Senate parliamentarian, who has ruled that a provision to Planned Parenthood is not subject to the budget reconciliation process and therefore would require 60 votes to cut off debate, not 51. Murkowski can and will use this for leverage, but her ultimate opposition to repeal and replace is not as predictable as that of Susan Collins. The quality of reproductive health care in America may depend upon her ultimate vote. Now is a wonderful time to reinforce the strong stand she has taken on this issue. Here’s who to tell: Morgan Griffin Legislative Assistant (for health care) morgan_griffin@murkowski.senate.gov 202-224-6655
3) Make a Progress Payment
	It is a possibility that the Senate will pass a bill that will be the worst piece of legislation in the past two decades. The number one idea of this bill is to enable the significant reduction in the number of people who receive health care in America. What a shameful thing this is. Let’s make a contribution to taking back the House as a declaration that this will not stand. Between now and mid-August, Congress will pass a bill to repeal and provide a “replacement”, or they will not. Let’s keep fighting for the latter outcome, but let’s keep getting ready for November 6, 2018. Giving through Swing Left’s district funds is an excellent way to give to races that are sure to count, and to stockpile money to help recruit the best challengers.

This is going to keep going on. The Trump speech to the Boy Scouts is just one more day-to-day example that this man is unmoored by any understanding of what being President requires of him. There will be some more of this, no? And, of course, we will spend the fall on Mueller disclosures and actions unless Trump fires him before then and precipitates a constitutional crisis.

And then there is the Congress, clearly and resolutely taking the opposite course from Trump on sanctioning Russia. A number of commentators have opined that this is a symbol of Congress’ heightened resolve. Since members of Congress face almost no opposition in their districts to their being harder on Russia, it might be better to eschew the praise on this front.

So, we will expect more praiseworthy actions, at least from the Senate. Even if more such blessings appear, our relentlessness will continue. This is no time to avert our gaze or lose our focus.

David Harrison
Bainbridge Island, Washington