#36: Responding to the Sounds of Republicans Whistling in the Dark

Thank you for continuing to share these messages with your friends, if you are not already on our mailing list, please click here to be added to our list. You can also follow me on Facebook. The more people we can reach, the more we contribute to this growing movement. We share these posts on our blog, A Path Forward to November 3, 2020, every two weeks, which means there will be a total of 100 missives before the Presidential election of 2020, in which our country will select a whole new course.

You can definitely understand their motivation if you hear someone whistling as they walk through a long, dark, foreboding, seemingly endless tunnel. Shapes appear in the murkiness and it is difficult to keep your footing. Why wouldn’t you try to develop some reasons why everything is going to be all right? Or in the alternative, at least you would entertain a narrative by which you could take certain steps, things won’t be as bad as you had feared. 

The seat that Democrat Conor Lamb just won in Pennsylvania is somewhere around 119th on the list of possible wins by Democrats! Republicans are in the dark tunnel, and are terrified of the potential of a blue wave. So they are trying to tell a different story saying that the Democratic victory was due entirely to the appeal of Conor Lamb's centrist policies. But Republican Congressman Charlie Dent counters those tales--- “Denial isn’t just a river in Egypt. I have seen wave elections before.” 

Any giddiness within the resistance about November prospects is unwise. Do we remember that the Access Hollywood tape was supposed to have made Donald Trump unelectable in the first place? But, what we are displaying as the creators of a blue wave in the fall is not giddiness, but relentlessness. There’s a difference.

The tactical argument, made by Republican consultant Jeff Roe in Sunday’s New York Times, is that Republicans will significantly reduce their November losses if their candidates stay with Trump rather than fleeing from him. The issue here is whether a Republican incumbent needing some of the numerous Trump-discontented swing voters in a heavily contested district could find such voters by ending their Trump genuflection. Roe argues that such a dive in the direction of the center by incumbents could jettison core Republican votes and end up being self-defeating. Roe brings forward his fantasies about the tax bill and even the appeal of Trump’s beginning the construction of a wall. Yes, please, we are all hoping fervently that Republicans will all get behind wall construction, and Mexico paying for it, as their central campaign theme. But, his more important argument is the idea that this election is primarily about who energizes their base. If that were true, that wouldn’t be so bad, but the truth is even better --- the election this fall is only partly about who energizes their base.

Trump and his henchpeople are trying to summon their base when they trash Mueller, or act as a Fox News broadcasting outlet. They saw the election results in Pennsylvania, and last fall in Virginia, and it has become self-evident that the resistance to Trump is translating to higher motivation and participation of those opposing Trump. They understand that the fall elections aren't just who one supports, it is who casts a ballot. Trump fears that if he stops tweeting untruthful things, his supporters won’t cast ballots.

Swing Left has been targeting 65 Republican held seats. The Cook report has been arguing that somewhere around 80 are in serious play. Somewhat belatedly coming to the conclusion that things are getting interesting, the House Democratic Campaign Committee is now talking about 98. We need to win 24. How do we do that besides energizing the base?

• We make our base bigger by getting 18-24 olds to register at a much higher level than their present 24%. The resistance is focusing on this goal across America.
• We fight back against the voter suppression efforts in swing states like Wisconsin that are dedicated to discouraging people from registering and voting.
• We support intensive voter identification and get out the vote efforts everywhere.
• We contest every single independent voter. Trump got a last-minute surge of women voters in November of 2016 after FBI director Comey made his late announcement on the Clinton emails. We are winning those votes back through Trump continuing to be Trump. By 56% to 32% women voters would prefer to see Democrats controlling Congress. 
• We expose the truth about Trump legislative “victories”. We must continue to remind independent voters that the tax bill is heading us toward trillion-dollar annual deficits.

Meanwhile, Congress continues to attend sporadically to the legislative role in running the country. Accordingly, Congress is putting our environment at risk, and not just through actions they generate on their own.   They are allowing Trump, Scott Pruitt and Ryan Zinke to work their will on the enforcement of environmental laws that were devised over forty years by Democrats and Republicans working together. We can do three things right away.

1)Stop the Poison Pen Riders
	Congress needs to pass a spending bill by Friday, and they can’t do it without Democratic votes. Even with that situation, House Republicans have proposed 80 separate appropriations “riders” that are designed to weaken environmental protections.   For instance, last year Republican Senators John McCain, Lindsay Graham and Susan Collins joined in helping Democrats protect methane gas regulations that Trump and Pruitt were trying to eviscerate. Now there is a House rider being advanced that would exempt oil and gas companies from methane rules. This is one for the member of the House of Representatives from your own district. Call or email her or him and insist that they oppose the riders. Or, since Charles Schumer and his Democratic colleagues in the Senate are in a strong negotiating position, call your Democratic Senator’s staff and tell them how much this means to you.
2) Keep the Focus on Climate Change
	Who knows what will happen with Donald Trump and the Paris Climate Accords going forward. There were some signals that he might be softening about removing the United States from the agreement, but then again there were arguments that he might help protect Dreamers through DACA or might limit gun purchases by 18 year olds, so don’t hold your carbon-added breath…  Instead, please boost the growing coalition of Governors who have formed their own Climate Alliance, who aren’t waiting for the federal government, and are showing their own leadership on climate change. Seventeen Governors have already joined the coalition. Check the list to see if your Governor has joined. If she or he hasn’t call their office today and seek to rectify the situation. While you are at it, do a check to see how your city or town is lessening its own carbon footprint. If your councilpersons don’t know the answer to this question, they should find out the answer and give it to you. Trumps climate position will be increasingly isolated if more states get with the program, the more Trump and his climate position will be isolated.
3) Time to Join the Herd
	For a moment it seemed as if Donald Trump (spurred by Laura Ingraham!) was with conservationists in battling what he called the “horrors” of the trade in elephant tusks. But the danger has increased that the import of elephant tusks will again be allowed. Ryan Zinke has included trophy hunting proponents in his “advisory committee” and import permits may soon be issued.   There are a lot of good ways to help elephants survive. Right now, it seems as if being part of a world-wide movement to block markets for tusks is an outstanding approach. Wild Aid is an inventive advocacy organization that is using social media to get you to Join the Herd. This is your chance.

It does seem endless, this Trump-opposing quest we are on. It seems as if he has been the President of sorts for a decade, at least. The rewards of being part of the opposition have been there from the beginning, as the Affordable Care Act was wounded, but saved by our collective efforts. With the November elections approaching, and the primaries preceding them, the rewards will start to increase--- if we keep on doing the right thing, every day.

David Harrison
Bainbridge Island, Washington

#35: How We Are All Turning a Campaign into a Movement

Thank you for continuing to share these messages with your friends, if you are not already on our mailing list, please click here to be added to our list. You can also follow me on Facebook. The more people we can reach, the more we contribute to this growing movement. We share these posts on our blog, A Path Forward to November 3, 2020, every two weeks, which means there will be a total of 100 missives before the Presidential election of 2020, in which our country will select a whole new course.

Martin Luther King said that “the arc of the moral universe bends toward justice.” Enmeshed and sometimes overwhelmed in the world of 2018, we should find it comforting and healthy to understand that gains in justice and human rights over 5+ decades have been monumental.

Our trajectory toward justice has not been permanently altered by this President, but it is not wrong to see our collective response to Donald Trump as a battle over that arc. Certainly, one must be careful in assigning any U.S. political campaign of the past 50 years any place at all in the world of justice-seeking or justice-denying. However, if you were to choose a time to make such a judgement about when campaigns can turn into a movement for justice, today would be an excellent choice.

There have been plenty of presidential candidates over these decades whose election one could find disheartening. One could cite specific actions the newly elected officials subsequently took that were ruinous. For instance, George W. Bush made up an entire war. But, at least each of these past presidents took pride in leading the country, had expectations for themselves, read things, and subscribed to some core notions about democracy. This is a different time, but not because of destructive executive orders, bad legislation and scary appointments. It is because of Trump’s unrelenting, contemptuous approach to the nature and the dreams of the republic for which we stand.

That is what has concentrated opposition into the resistance. It is what has turned that which otherwise would be a political campaign into a movement. The extent to which it can maintain and sustain itself as a movement will determine the outcome in November. In terms of how to maintain and sustain this effort, it may be difficult to believe but there are lessons from the peace movement of the late 60’s and early 70’s. Closer examination reveals more than history's judgement that the focus of 1968 was on sex, drugs and dropping out. Instead, the most telling focus of 1968 was the movement to end the war, and to dramatically change the American politics of that time. There were two ways that this movement was uncommon, both lessons for us now.

First, the peace movement reached way beyond the rolls of people who would have been expected to participate in it. Like the Women’s Marches of January 2017 and January 2018, and the organization of Indivisible and other resistance cells, it activated into its ranks millions of people who had previously thought themselves to be non-political. In some cases, it caused people to change a political persuasion that had long been adhered to in their family. New questions were being asked around the kitchen table, and all of a sudden Ozzie and Harriet’s kids were in the streets. You knew you were not in ordinary times.

Second, this movement was able to achieve a relentlessness and a momentum that became a story unto itself. Elected officials knew that the movement wasn’t going away. Leaders avoided the pulling apart that inevitably visits movements that themselves are a coalition. As in the resistance of 2018, if you were a participant in the peace movement in 1968, there was always something to do, and you never stopped being engaged, and each month there were more people by your side. In 1968, all that without an internet! The resistance thus far already has demonstrated the capacity to translate outrage and dismay about Trump into electoral results. The current level of relentlessness and commitment is a gift that should not be squandered. If we keep it up, there will be a huge blue wave in November. As uneven as Democrats are in their performance, we will have attended to the arc of justice.

These missives have detailed several ways that each of us can heighten our engagement in 2018, including using Swing Left, Indivisible, or the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee to pick and support one or more candidates. Here are three fresh ways you can make to help increase the number of people who envelop themselves, and the extent of their new obsession.

1) Sharply Increase Latino Participation
	After Mitt Romney lost the presidency to Barack Obama, Republican leaders commissioned a report analyzing their political future. The subsequent “autopsy” report argued that because of the growth in the U.S. of the Latino population, Republicans pushing away Latino voters would seriously weaken their presidential prospects in 2016 and beyond.  Donald Trump avoided that predicted fate in 2016, but he and his colleagues will not be so fortunate in 2018 and 2020. Nearly 40% of all newly registered voters since 2012 are of Hispanic origin, and the efforts to mobilize the Latino community are intensifying. The new voters will be especially key in Nevada and Arizona Senate races, as well as Beto O’Rourke’s longer shot challenge to Ted Cruz in Texas.  Earlier missives have underscored the important role of Mi Familia Vota, which concentrates its efforts in six Southwestern and Western states. Another important organization which could use a boost this very moment is Voto Latino, which uses inventive digital methods (including their “text to register” campaign) and has registered more than 300,000 voters.
2) Find an All New Path to Recruiting New Voters
	Nonprofit organizations employ 13 million people across the country. They have 60 million volunteers. Their programs connect with and often serve communities whose voting levels are lower, and they are often seen as a trusted messenger. With this impact on our country, and with a huge interest in how government serves the people, why wouldn’t nonprofit organizations play a key role in voter registration?  Some of the leaders of America’s nonprofit community, including Independent Sector, feel exactly that way. They have started an excellent campaign to persuade nonprofits to 1) help their staff and volunteers register, and 2) start registration campaigns to reach the broader community. Nonprofit Vote has done a meticulous job of showing nonprofits what can be done and how to do it. Time to send this link to several of your favorite nonprofits to make certain they fully consider this opportunity.
3) Change the Law to make it Easier to Register
	The Voting Rights and Elections program at NYU’s Wagner Center continues to do excellent work battling voter suppression. In addition to stopping the efforts to make registration and voting more difficult, how can we turn the issue around? In what ways can we make registration and voting easier?  Here too there is an all new angle. The Brennan Center also has outlined the growing movement toward automatic registration of voters, which has now been enacted in nine states and the District of Columbia. These states will immediately register citizens when they seek government services such as receiving a Driver’s License. Some states are now guaranteeing that the automatic registration approach is also available to 16 and 17 year olds, so that they will be ready to vote immediately after their 18th birthday.  It’s time to check the Brennan Center site to see where your state stands, and it’s time to write your legislator to make certain she or he is a proponent of new registration strategies.

Robert Mueller will be increasingly watchable over the next several months. A few Republican Senators will continue to afford Mueller, deputy attorney general Rod Rosenstein and FBI director Christopher Wray the protection they need from the attacks of Donald Trump. Washington is already so beset and askew with the upcoming elections that bi-partisan legislation on any subject at all is nearly impossible. So we will focus on the elections too, and prove that they were right to feel beset. 

It is within our abilities to guarantee that the November 2018 election will have an unprecedented level of participation. Now is the time to do that indispensable core work. When volunteers work on phones on November 6 to get out the vote, let’s make sure right now that they have the biggest possible list from which to work. That would be the right thing to do.

David Harrison
Bainbridge Island, Washington

#34: Republican Leaders Let the Sideshow Become the Show

Thank you for continuing to share these messages with your friends, if you are not already on our mailing list, please click here to be added to our list. You can also follow me on Facebook. The more people we can reach, the more we contribute to this growing movement. We share these posts on our blog, A Path Forward to November 3, 2020, every two weeks, which means there will be a total of 100 missives before the Presidential election of 2020, in which our country will select a whole new course.

Dear Republican Member of Congress,

Undoubtedly, you are tired of getting pursued by citizens who are very worried about Donald Trump’s diminishment of our country and its democratic ideals. There are a lot of us out here. Maybe to you it is sounding like we are all speaking with one loud voice, but we have millions of distinct, individual voices and we are not going away. We are certain that Donald Trump represents a grave danger, and we remind you that the extent the Republican Party has claimed him and abetted him is now a huge part of the hazard our nation faces.

Internationally, his assault on global institutions is shameful. Our country’s previous worldwide leadership is in freefall. Worse, he could lead us into nuclear war. Your political party that once called for international strength backs a man who has yielded our international leadership position to the Chinese, and openly admires a Russian dictator. He openly taunts and disrespects nations whose soldiers have died for the ideals that our nation treasures.

His domestic policies are grounded in contempt for others. While you have quietly hoped that he would bring us together, he has split us apart, then lied about what he said, and then split us apart again, and then lied again.

At first, when he would tweet something that was untrue or bizarre, you would find yourself annoyed. You might say that it was “unhelpful,” or try to distract attention from it. Now, when he says something that eighteen months ago would have shocked you, you find yourself incapable of such shock. What you hoped would become the sideshow has since become the show.

Have you met a single member of the House or the Senate who is less knowledgeable about the workings of American government than is this man? Is there a single member of the House and the Senate who is less able to articulate the policy alternatives that are before him and the Congress on any major issue? Is there anyone who reads less, or who is less curious, or is less truthful?

Every day you look to yourself or your colleagues for reassurance. Even if you wish Lindsay Graham hadn’t confirmed that Trump referred to shithole countries, or if you thought Bob Corker’s comment about White House staff doing daycare was inappropriate, you are glad they are out there. Sometimes you allow yourself your own critical comment to a constituent or to a colleague though your practice is to be careful.

All of this makes you less of a Republican, in the context of how you have always defined Republicanism. In the context of how Donald Trump is leading you and “branding” your party to the country, you know that your party has been hijacked.

The issue for you and your party is what to do about that. You have thought about it a lot. You not only have talked to your political colleagues about it, you have talked to those you love and those you trust. You have decided that you can do more for your country and your party and your own political career by staying allied with Donald Trump than you can do by leaving him. It hasn’t escaped you that this is an enormous moral dilemma. So, you have carefully enumerated the issues where his position is not that distant from yours, and you have tried to ignore his offenses against the country and the Constitution. You have clung to moral relativism, telling yourself that other ideas and parties and proposals have no lock on goodness. To this point, you have decided not to walk away.

When you can’t sleep at night, don't you worry that you have made the wrong choice, that you have failed the ultimate test of leadership, that you haven’t done the right thing on the most critical challenge of the day when you always thought you would? That’s the case. For 228 years, the glorious, imperfect American experiment in self-government, this opportunity made from the sacrifice of patriots, has been a beacon for the freedom loving people of the world. If in February, 2018 you think it would be the hardest thing in the world for you to separate yourself from the terrible deal that you and your party have struck, it’s time for you to do the hardest thing.
Here are three things you can do right now to attend to the turning of the tide:

1) Communicate With Askew Republicans
	Polls demonstrate an increased number of disaffected Republicans and Independents and early retirements reveal angst-beset Republican lawmakers. It’s a great time to be a flame-fanner. You could look for places to share or send the above open letter, or write a similar one expressing your personal sentiments. Pick a Republican member of Congress and send it to her or him, or send to the Republican state legislator who lives closest to you. Post on Facebook or other social media, turn it into a letter to the editor, or otherwise extend this sentiment. Do whatever you can to get people talking more often about the unmet moral obligations of Republican elected officials.
2) See if We Can’t Sneak Away With a Seat
	The House Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has had an odd position on special elections. They have been reluctant to aggressively contest special elections in districts where Trump had a significant margin in 2016. Since none of these districts have been in the top 50 of those we are most likely to take back, they are afraid that contesting and losing will create a negative narrative for the November 2018 elections. That’s the wrong way to think about it. In the special election in Pennsylvania’s 18th District to be held on March 13, strong candidate and former prosecutor Conor Lamb will either win or come close enough to send a signal. It’s time to send the coffee money.
3) Become Fully Educated on the Russian Rending of Our Democracy
	To prepare for the swirl of indictments by Mueller and Congressional actions and political ramifications, we must make ourselves more fully informed. Let’s start by reading Thomas Friedman’s hugely important Code Red. Then, let’s compel our own selves to understand all of the specific Mueller charges against the Russians.

There’s a lot of good work to be doing right now. No falling away is permitted. Too bad we didn’t all make a tape of our dispirited selves that awful morning after the 2016 election, to provide the most vivid reminder of our pledge to never let this happen again. On the other hand, Donald Trump gives us daily reminders of what has befallen our country. It shouldn’t be difficult to summon our best.

David Harrison
Bainbridge Island, Washington

#33: This Denigration of The Constitution Has Definitely Got to Stop

Thank you for continuing to share these messages with your friends, if you are not already on our mailing list, please click here to be added to our list. You can also follow me on Facebook. The more people we can reach, the more we contribute to this growing movement. We share these posts on our blog, A Path Forward to November 3, 2020, every two weeks, which means there will be a total of 100 missives before the Presidential election of 2020, in which our country will select a whole new course.

By now you will have heard the arguments that the polls are narrowing, and that we should not be as sure of ourselves as we might have been a couple of weeks ago. Comfortingly, the Trump approval ratings are still awful. For all the talk about his loyal base, at least 20% of the people who voted for him (and maybe more) have deserted him. Even in the face of the Nunes-driven flurry, the employment gains of the Obama and now the Trump presidencies, if the fall Congressional elections were held today, we would win well more than the necessary 24 seats to take back the House.

But the election isn’t being held today, and the results of November 2016 are still fresh enough that we know that people will sometimes do things that we find incomprehensible. Given that what is at stake --- the future of the great democratic experiment --- is at risk, how can we not take our own personal political adventures to an all new level?

We are talking about each and every one of us here. There is no free pass related to “I don’t even know people who support the President” (You do!), and no free pass for “I am not happy with the organizing skill of Democrats” (Good for you!), and no free pass for “I find this all exhausting and I am so weary that I have to get on with my life and leave this aside for a bit” (But, we can’t!) and certainly, above all, absolutely no free pass for “I don’t know what I can do to support this effort.”

Because, we all do know that this is a major occupation for us this year. We know that, with all other Trump initiatives, the wholesale, cynical attacks on the FBI will be exposed in all of their tawdriness very soon. We know that Robert Mueller is out there methodically assembling evidence that will use Michael Flynn or Reince Priebus or Steve Bannon or Hope Hicks to expose Trump’s congenital aversion to truth. Obstruction of justice will be clear, since Trump contributes to those charges every week. Whether or not Donald Trump has a provable role in collusion between his campaign and the Russian government, all of this will not go well for him. Don’t despair in his tweets, eagerly await them. It is unlikely that he will ever escape the protection of his aides and lawyers to impeach himself, but he is so used to the lie that if he could, he would.

Because Mueller is out there, and very notably because Mueller is rightly being protected by Trey Gowdy and Lindsay Graham and Richard Burr and even the Senate Judiciary Chairman Charles Grassley, who is by no means a renegade, 2018 will be a good year for Democrats. To make it an even greater year, a few million people in the resistance must keep doing what they already are doing, but just a bit more of it, and just a little bit better.

The elements are simple. First, we put the right races in play, including at least a few that are longer shots but offer candidates who are irresistible. Second, we occupy ourselves with doing the right thing in those specific races and we do not allow ourselves to be distracted. Third, we attend to the underlying conditions under which these elections will be held. Who is going to be registered to vote? Whose vote might be suppressed? And most importantly, how can we maintain the enthusiasm and get out the vote mechanisms that will assure that we vote in the necessary numbers, like we did in Virginia in November of 2017? If each of us isn’t doing each of these three things, now is the time to start:

1) If You Haven’t Narrowed Your Field, Do it Now
	Perhaps you live in a Congressional District where there is an incumbent whose performance you like, but they are in a safe seat. You want them to be in the majority much more often, so you decide to focus your attention on one or more potentially close races in other districts. Which to choose? There have been a startling number of Republican retirements in swing districts, where incumbents were not looking forward to this election year.  The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s first list of targeted races lists 59 seats. The Daily Kos has identified as many as 80. There are all sorts of resources to help with figuring this out, as described in previous missives. With 6000 local groups, Indivisible is helpfully focused on every district. Swing Left, which drew some suspicions from political veterans at the outset, is an excellent source for identifying districts in play and understanding why those districts are targeted. They are entirely focused on taking back the House. The heavily data-driven Flippable is doing good work, including focusing on state legislative races. All these organizations have more spark right now than the Democratic Party itself, which is not entirely a bad thing, because it makes this a much larger and more spirited movement. Go beyond all this help and teach yourself to understand a race. If a Republican member of Congress has retired, is there a Republican heir apparent, or are conservative and “moderate” forces clashing? These disputes make a district more attractive for Democrats, because the loss for one faction in the Republican primary can dampen turnout in the general election. If there are four or five Democratic candidates in a swing district, start by understanding their views, their motivation for running, and their background. Check to see who is already well organized and is raising money early. If someone is way ahead on all of those fronts, that will be a sign that they are getting strong support from traditional Democratic constituencies. Several states have their primaries this spring. If there are four or more candidates, fewer than 30% of the votes can select the candidate. Remember that the total received in the Democratic primary of all the Democratic candidates is a huge issue. If a single Republican gets 48% and four Democrats split 52%, we are in play for November, as long as we remember to come back together. We will remember that, no?
2) Be Strategic In How You Deploy Your Money
	Your favorite Senator or Congressperson will ask you for a donation whether she or he needs it. Eventually if they decide they have surplus funds they can send it to the Democratic party, but that is too circuitous for your donation to count. The best way to give money to a candidate is to do it directly. You can donate through their campaign website. The best time to give money is now, as your favorite candidates are getting their grounding. Inventively, Swing Left has pioneered “district funds”, in which you can give money to an account in a swing district before the Democrats select their nominee. District funds will help candidates who deplete their resources in the primary to get a good head start on their general election campaign. Now there are two terrific additional ideas. First, Swing Left has created the opportunity for activists to have their own personal fundraising page to gather resources in a selected swing district.  This allows you to personalize your activism, keep track of your success, and gather your friends around one candidate. Second, in case you are hankering to find special efforts to get millennials enthusiastic about this fall, Future Forum is a political action committee made up of 26 of the youngest Members of Congress that has already visited 30 cities.
3) Remember Increased Voter Registration Works to Our Advantage
	At this point, Rock the Vote is doing the best national work to increase the presently discouraging rate of registration and voting by those under 35. The range of their strategies is what most distinguishes them, including some corporate partnerships. New voters should get special emphasis nationwide. A great initiative would be evaluating your local four year college or community college to see what voter registration efforts are already planned, and to make certain campuses aren’t waiting until fall to get going on these matters. The Campus Voting Project has created a student voting registration guide for each state, with special attention to the way some states and localities discourage student registration. You can make certain this guide gets in the right hands, or even gather a circle of friends to take on student registration as a group project.

The early work of campaigns is happening now. Every call, meeting, project, donation, and rally carries extra significance, because it is right now when momentum is being built for the fall. Let’s not wait until spring and find ourselves wishing in October that we had started earlier. Let’s treat every self-aggrandizing, truth-challenging tweet as a personal signal that this denigration of the Constitution has definitely got to stop.

David Harrison
Bainbridge Island, Washington

#32: What Wonders Will Emerge on November 6

Thank you for continuing to share these messages with your friends, if you are not already on our mailing list, please click here to be added to our list. You can also follow me on Facebook. The more people we can reach, the more we contribute to this growing movement. We share these posts on our blog, A Path Forward to November 3, 2020, every two weeks, which means there will be a total of 100 missives before the Presidential election of 2020, in which our country will select a whole new course.

Long before Donald Trump came into our world via escalator, political compromise was referred to by its practitioners as an “art”. Two or more sides would recognize and resolve an impasse. Each would give up something, and get something. Neither would be entirely comfortable with the resolution, and both would be able to claim that they achieved an outcome that prior to the compromise seemed highly unlikely.

This still happens in our nation’s capital, every week and on issues large and small. And for the most part, it should happen. However, the differences between what transpired in the recent budget discussions and what is commonplace when compromises are sought are even more striking:

• When the price of resolution includes avoiding a governmental shutdown the debate will no longer be limited to the issues that were initially under review, which were DACA and border security. Instead the debate reached a wider, more complicating sphere related to the broader infliction of pain on the government and country as the consequence of failing to act on DACA. It was not unwise for Senator Schumer and the Senate Democrats to initially refuse to supply the votes necessary to keep the government open, because they traded their inevitable wounds for a clearer path to the conceivable creation of a future for Dreamers. Once the Republicans had already acceded to the six-year extension of the Children’s Health Insurance Program within the budget resolution, the high pain/gain ratio for Democrats of shutting down the government even temporarily was predictable. The politics were messy and a bit disappointing, but it was worth it. There will be no ongoing damage, and tactical lessons have been learned.

• In typical negotiations that lead to political compromise, everyone comes into the room with a similar body of knowledge. On the issues before them, Democratic and Republican Senators had varying interpretations on the current effectiveness of border security, or different value judgements on injustices faced by the Dreamers. But, each and every one of them had a deeper understanding of these matters than did Donald Trump. When it looked for a moment like Trump would agree with Republican Lindsay Graham and Democrat Dick Durbin on a “clean” DACA bill, aide Steven Miller marshalled the Fox forces. Because Trump can veto bills, Mitch McConnell has to treat his views as consequential. The combination of Trump not being any kind of a learner and Fox having his ear is very difficult to deal with. With Trump, any deal will become in-artful.

So, none of these upcoming negotiations will easily fit the pattern that Senators had utilized before the present political affliction of the past year. Throughout 2018, Trump and McConnell are going to need 60 votes in the Senate. All year long they will have to come to the table with 51 or fewer votes, and with Chuck Schumer sitting there demanding things. It behooves all of us who see ourselves as a part of the resistance to know which of these circumstances will endanger us and which will advantage us, and how to make more of the latter and less of the former.

The first question is how badly does each side want its objective in a sought compromise? Republicans know how fervently most Democrats want to do the right thing for the Dreamers, while many Republicans would be comfortable with no DACA at all. That’s why what once seemed unthinkable may well come to pass, where Democrats will trade Dreamer protection for the votes Trump needs to get a major section of the wall funded. (Democrats also know that they will have much improved ability to block wall spending after they take back the House in November. Like Rome, walls aren’t built in a day.) Similarly, if the Republicans had needed 60 votes for the bad tax bill in the Senate, Schumer would have been able to extract major concessions, because he would have been fine if discussions fell apart and there was no bill at all.

The second question is does the objective have to be passed, or just blocked? If Trump ever proposes an infrastructure bill, it will require McConnell and him to make major concessions with Schumer and Senate Democrats, because he would need all new legislation, and 60 votes to cut off debate. There is no national groundswell convincing Schumer that he would be in peril if he disagrees with Trump’s approach.

The third question is to what extent is there common ground between the parties? The requirement that 60 votes are necessary in the Senate to cut off debate changes the role of Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski and Jeff Flake and Lindsay Graham from providing a key necessary NO vote (which they did rarely to be sure). Now to be successful they must bring Republicans into a “moderate” coalition, a role which they will find much more enjoyable. This will also enhance the role of the more centrist Democratic Senators, which was described in missive #31.

Here are three things we can do to make sure the resistance isn’t compromised by compromises in Congress:

1) Promote the Promise of the Common-Sense Coalition
	Any time a group of Senators from both parties labels itself a Common-Sense Coalition, it’s time to be wary. The danger of any centrist coalition is that it can blunt necessary advocacy and substitute half a loaf when a loaf is needed. But in 2018 the emergence of this coalition will prove more valuable to Democrats than Republicans. That’s because the Democrats are in the minority, and thus are that much more in need in terms of coalition building. Three weeks from now we will be enveloped in a DACA debate, with all of the complications of the budget resolution set aside. For at least a day, attention will be paid to the substance --- who would be deported if DACA doesn’t survive in a meaningful form; the contributions they make to America; and the injustices that will be visited upon them. By participating in the recent meetings of the Common-Sense coalition, certain Republican Senators have revealed themselves as possible supporters of a DACA bill. They need a note from you thanking them for working across the aisle and looking for solutions. Give them some positive re-enforcement, even though the real work is yet to be done. Choose any or all of these three, who are definitely not used to getting such notes: Mike Rounds of South Dakota Cory Gardner of Colorado Lamar Alexander of Tennessee
2) Delay the Usual Internecine Democratic Warfare
	There always will be and always should be a place within the Democratic Party for Democrats to battle Democrats. Fighting passionately over what you stand for is how you end up standing for something. So, the disappointment of some that Schumer and colleagues agreed to end the shutdown could easily end up within the normal bounds of discourse. However, let’s get the situation clear in our minds. Schumer got something that was meaningful, and he was not in a position that DACA gains were going to emerge in full bloom with each successive day of a shutdown. Further, the moderate Democrats who were eager to have the shutdown be over all stood tall by Schumer’s side through all of the Affordable Care Act votes and all of the votes on tax “reform”. Under considerable pressure and from states who strongly supported Trump over Clinton, they will continue to be strong members of the Democratic caucus. We can all be monitors of this internal debate, to make certain that our resistance has both standards and a big tent. Or we can seek to eviscerate our own. Stephanie Taylor of the Progressive Change Campaign Committee wrote: "Today's cave is also a wake up call for the Democratic Party. Today's cave was led by weak-kneed, right-of-center Democrats who buckled as soon as the fight was on. Senator Schumer voted with Republicans and called this a good path forward. This is exactly why voters don't know what Democrats stand for. Weak Democrats muddy the party brand -- and today, they made it harder to inspire voters and win elections everywhere in 2018." Write Stephanie Taylor at info@boldprogressives.org and tell her what she already knows --- Schumer is not a “weak kneed right of center Democrat”. Schumer ultimately told Joe Manchin and Claire McCaskill that he didn’t need them in the effort to withhold 40 votes, which helped them in their home states where they are seeking re-election in November. He ultimately decided he did not have an immediate path to DACA victory. That’s what you want a Democratic caucus chair to do.
3) Help the Coalition for the American Dream and United We Dream Get Momentum
	Even though battle lines are now well drawn, it’s not too late to get a little bit more momentum behind the forces that are working to protect Dreamers. One of the communities of interest that has been surprisingly helpful (within their own self-interest) is America’s corporate, labor and trade association leaders. Figure out a way to get attention for their efforts. Write to a corporate, labor or trade association leader you know and ask them to join the growing ranks. Send their letter to Congress to your own member of Congress with an attached note. Or, get behind the spirited, intensive lobbying effort of the largest group of immigrant youth in the country. Click to donate here.

Because of the need for the bills to get 60 votes in the Senate, we’re heading toward a year where compromises will always be at the table. Since Donald Trump always has Fox TV tuned in and since he has almost no knowledge of policy issues, he will never be a presidential negotiator even at the lower end, represented by the days of James Buchanan and Warren G. Harding. That will make things a bit more tumultuous. We will have to expect our elected officials to pick their way through carefully, and we will have to get beyond the declared wisdom of one paragraph posts.

Through it all, with determination and confidence and energy and hope, we are working toward the wonders that can emerge on November 6, 2018.

David Harrison
Bainbridge Island, Washington

#31: No Forgetting the Strength and Grace of Barrack Obama

Thank you for continuing to share these messages with your friends, if you are not already on our mailing list, please click here to be added to our list. You can also follow me on Facebook. The more people we can reach, the more we contribute to this growing movement. We share these posts on our blog, A Path Forward to November 3, 2020, every two weeks, which means there will be a total of 100 missives before the Presidential election of 2020, in which our country will select a whole new course.

To the extent that people in political mass movements are capable of collective wisdom, now would be a very good time to achieve some. As fascinating as is Fire and Fury, Michael Wulff's exposé of a petulant, distracted, uninformed, dishonorable president, we can't permit ourselves to dwell at the scene of that crime.

Steve Bannon's comments regarding treason, Trump Jr. and Manafort are delicious, of course. But, collusion in inviting the Russians into the presidential election, and/or obstruction of justice are matters before Robert Mueller, and thus are already in good hands. There aren't a lot of countries where the government can investigate a sitting president, but we are definitely one of them, as Richard Nixon was dismayed to learn.

Beyond being very concerned about Mueller, and he is, Trump is worried about the permanent de-legitimization of his presidency. He would, and has, lied regularly to try to avoid this outcome. It is this fear of Trump's that has put Jeff Sessions on the Tom Price-like slippery slope, even though Jeff Sessions was the first Senator to endorse Trump's candidacy, and for a long time the only one.

It also why Trump has recruited a motley collection of House Republicans who have forgotten they always loved the FBI and are now seeking to eviscerate the FBI. Most of all, it is why Steve Bannon must be made an outcast, even as he retracts and apologizes. If Donald Trump could get away with it, he would have Sean Hannity interview him and then insist that he never met Steve Bannon, except once in a large meeting of junior staff and interns.

In the midst of it all, we must keep our focus. Doing 2018 the right way (both in terms of the legislative process and the 2018 elections) will give us the opportunity to begin to reverse in 2019 what happened in 2017. As we tackle 2018 in our massive and growing movement, we must continue to adjust our efforts to take advantage of new conditions.

Paramount among these new conditions is that 60 is the new 50. Mitch McConnell is out of the actions that require only 50 votes in the Senate due to those actions being advanced under the budget reconciliation process. Getting to 60 will push him back to the center. That's why he and his colleagues wanted the awful tax bill so badly. It was their last night at the saloon before reporting for active duty.

Because of their influence on committees and their willingness to talk to Democrats, Susan Collins, Bob Corker, John McCain, Lisa Murkowski, and Jeff Flake will still be important. However, we will need a new tact - we will want to quickly improve our communication with selected Democratic Senators from states Trump won by a wide margin and who are up for re-election in 2018. There are several who were elected to their six-year terms in 2012, when Barack Obama was re-elected. These include Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota, Claire McCaskill of Missouri, Jon Tester of Montana, Joe Donnelly of Indiana, Joe Manchin of West Virginia, and Sherrod Brown of Ohio. Now that Doug Jones has been seated, we are at 49. Getting to 51 (requiring the re-election of these Senators) could generate innumerable rewards, including improved defense against future Trump Supreme Court nominees.

The trick will be to find an approach to the budget, DACA (Deferral of Childhood Arrivals), infrastructure investment and other legislative challenges that keep these vulnerable Senators comfortably within their own party.

This is more possible because fashioning a workable Democratic caucus position while attending to needs of individual Senators is Minority Leader Charles Schumer's specialty. And it's even more possible than that because Trump’s growing unpopularity has reached these states, making it far easier for these Senators to oppose him.

The resistance does not need to demand that every Democratic Senator think alike. It has never been so. Depending on the issue, the position and politics of centrist Democrats must be honored and even celebrated. It's a party with progressive goals but a big tent.

So, by all means let’s participate in compromises to keep the government going and people served. But remember always the standards --- no participation in international bullying, no blessing of planet poisoning executive orders, no pretending that Trump has ended airplane fatalities, no thinking for even a second that a wall is related to our security, no disregard of international institutions, no conflating growth in the stock market with giving a boost to those in need, no throwing people off their health care insurance, no denigrating the media, no comforting the comfortable while afflicting the afflicted, and no forgetting the strength and grace of Barrack Obama.

With those standards in mind here are three things we can do to help our bruised nation get off to a strong start in 2018.

1) Get Back the Senate Majority
	For most of this past year, the resistance to Donald Trump has concentrated on taking back the House of Representatives in 2018. The work of Indivisible and Swing Left has preceded and surpassed the work of the Democratic Party on this front, although the parties efforts have increased to date. With Doug Jones' victory in Alabama, the Senate is still a longer shot, but it is within reach. The formula would be to hold onto the vulnerable Democratic seats enumerated above, pick up the Republican seats held by Dean Heller of Nevada and the retiring apostate Jeff Flake of Arizona, and work for an upset with good candidates in such states as Tennessee and Texas, where a win by Representative Beto O'Rourke over Senator Ted Cruz would be delicious. It's time for activists to get to know a vulnerable Democratic Senator who is working hard and who is up for re-election in a state where every other major elected official is a Republican. Why not start with Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota? She is a stolid Democrat, served two terms as attorney general, and eschewed running for Governor to run again for the Senate. Whether or not you are ready to make a small contribution to her campaign, now is an excellent time to sign up to start learning about her.
2) Standing with Patagonia to Protect Public Lands
	It's time to notice that one company has put themselves forward to oppose the Trump/Zinke destruction of public lands. As previously discussed in Missive #29 the action cutting Bear's Ears National Monument by over 2 million acres is only the beginning of the administration's efforts to put conservation last.  The outdoor gear company Patagonia has objected, brought other companies and conservation organizations to their side, and taken a leadership role in this effort. They have paid for some very effective television ads which have made interior secretary Ryan Zinke very angry. Click here to join and participate in their campaign to preserve public lands.
3) Get to Work Fighting Gerrymandering
	As we know, long before votes are cast in an election, initial critical steps are taken. Progressives battle against state legislative proposals that make registering to vote more difficult or otherwise seek to suppress voting. Activists register potential voters, seek to increase the intensity of their interest, and set up systems to convince people to vote and get them to the polls. For years, looming over all of these efforts has been the extra level of difficulty in winning gerrymandered districts, whose proponents use demographic analysis to create disproportionate advantage of one party over another, over and above what would be the likely or common political distribution within that geographical area. This turns swing districts (in which political choice is magnified) into safe districts (in which only one viewpoint is entertained). Both parties have been guilty of gerrymandering in the past. The federal courts have taken notice, and there have been important legal efforts to stop the most egregious practices, especially those that constitute racial discrimination. Every ten years, the completion of the census puts state legislatures into the position of needing to redraw the boundaries of state legislative and congressional districts to adjust to population shifts. In the fall of 2010, Republicans pulled off huge gains in state legislative races. Subsequently, they used their legislative majorities in several states (notably in Wisconsin and Virginia) to creatively re-draw district lines to gain significantly more seats than their overall vote total would have predicted. For instance, North Carolina has an almost even number of Democratic voters, but its Congressional delegation has 12 Republicans and 3 Democrats. Eric Holder, the Attorney General under Barrack Obama, has persuaded Democrats to take on this issue with all new energy and a fresh understanding about how the worst excesses of gerrymandering can be countered. His National Democratic Redistricting Committee is behind strategies to make certain Democrats don't make the same mistakes in 2020 as they did in 2010.

There's nothing wrong with admitting to ourselves that political America has become wearying. The daily Trumpian approach to life, to our nation, and to the world is soul-sapping. As an antidote, you could look at the newspaper (remember those?) and see the evidence every single day that our resistance is growing. And there's some other evidence that can restore the soul as well. Nicholas Kristof says 2017 was the best year in human history. Last year, over 300 million people in this world got their first access to electricity and to clean water, and 250 million boosted themselves or were lifted from the worst levels of poverty.

David Harrison
Bainbridge Island, Washington

#30: How Could the World Not Be Watching Us With Trepidation?

Thank you for continuing to share these messages with your friends, if you are not already on our mailing list, please click here to be added to our list. You can also follow me on Facebook. The more people we can reach, the more we contribute to this growing movement. We share these posts on our blog, A Path Forward to November 3, 2020, every two weeks, which means there will be a total of 100 missives before the Presidential election of 2020, in which our country will select a whole new course.

Well, at least you can appreciate Donald Trump’s sense of history, since his tax bill has revived the medieval practice of selling indulgences to the rich. It is an awful new law, revealing the emptiness of past Republican protests about deficits. Its underlying philosophy boils down to this - get while the getting is good. If you are Paul Ryan, it is an additional bonus that you have created new pressures on Social Security, Medicaid and Medicare spending.

Did any of us even need this new motivation? Our resistance was continuing to grow either way, spurred by the excellent results first in Virginia and now in Alabama. The electoral lessons in November and then in December couldn’t have been clearer. In those states, our enthusiasm and commitment and relentlessness increased registrations and promoted turnout. We swept away Ed Gillespie, the Republican candidate for Governor in Virginia even though he got 300,000 votes more than the Republican candidate from four years before. Because of the focus on getting people energized and getting them to the polls, the Democrat Ralph Northam got 600,000 more votes than the Democrat from four years before and won by a wide margin.

We could get used to this. What we are doing is working. The level of our own personal motivation matters, hugely. Certainly, one great force inspiring the resistance is Trump himself. He has insisted that a massive transfer of riches to the wealthy from funds we must borrow (for our children and grandchildren to pay back) is a middle-class tax cut. So, now that we know that he will say anything and do anything, we don’t have to worry about being distracted by some positive action Trump might take. But with or without Trump’s tweets and Trump’s headlines, we will grow our resistance every week and every month until November 6, 2018. There are scores of ways to accelerate. If we haven’t found local friends or associates to work with, groups linked to Indivisible, Swing Left, and several other national organizing efforts are everywhere.

There are years in American history that are critical to understanding who we are as a people. In 1776, ragtag revolutionaries declared our independence. In 1865, we ended a war amongst ourselves and the institution of slavery that begat that war. In 1963 we passed the Civil Rights Act, an indispensable but insufficient tool to fight discrimination, and in 1968 we lost Dr. King and Bobby Kennedy and almost unraveled as a nation.

Do we now understand that 2018 could be a year of that level of consequence? Don’t we know that we are a part of a great resurgence, an effort to restore the never fully realized promise of a great democratic experiment? Do we realize that we are on the verge of doing something unprecedented, something that will send a signal to the people of an entire planet?

How could those people of the world not be watching us now with trepidation, as our own United Nations Ambassador steps forth and insults the world? She says their country’s vote in the World’s General Assembly should be for sale to us? She says that the $26 billion we provide in foreign aid to make sure the hungry are fed and disease is eradicated is less important than this anti-democratic stance of a country that purports to be the greatest democracy of all?

And our own elected officials and our own news media fell silent. Either they were distracted by the tax bill or numbed by other daily offenses. It’s time for each of us to attend to these matters of our place in the world by doing these three things.

1) Become an Advocate for Nations Working Together
	The management of the United Nations has been fraught with problems for decades now. Paraphrasing the adage about democracy, the United Nations is the worst way for nations across the world to get together, except for all others. The U.N.’s Millennial Development Goals established by the world community in 2000 provided the grounding for extraordinary progress in poverty alleviation and disease eradication. The U.N. has provided the underlying structure that lead to the Paris Climate Accords. However limited its success has been in preventing conflict, it’s a place that the quest for peace finds a home. All nations use the United Nations to advance national self-interest and well as identify and pursue collective global interest. Unfortunately, the President of the United States has stressed the former all out of proportion to the latter. Since the United Nations was founded in 1948, there has been an organization for Americans to go to provide active support for the United Nations, sending a signal to the world that we intend to be a part of the world community. That’s the United Nations Association of the United States. You can utilize it as a way to support advocacy that can protect the U.N., educate yourself about what is happening in the world community, and learn ways to involve yourself in the international health and welfare agenda. UNA-US is a vigorous opponent of the U.N. budget cuts that Donald Trump and Nikki Haley have proposed.
2) Get Behind the Bi-Partisan Consensus on Foreign Aid
	During the debate in the U.N. General Assembly over the United States action recognizing Jerusalem as the Israeli capital, Nikki Haley said that she was “taking names” of nations who would “disrespect” the United States and that this vote would be remembered when the United States allocates foreign aid. If another nation had said anything of the sort, the United States would be outraged. Embarrassingly, we were lectured to by the far less democratic Turkey about our “blackmailing” behavior, and only nine countries voted with us --- Israel, Guatemala, Honduras, the Marshall Islands, Micronesia, Nauru, Palau and Togo.   In February, Republican Senators Lindsay Graham of South Carolina and John McCain of Arizona successfully defended foreign aid as the exercise of “soft power” essential to America’s role in the world. Perhaps the bipartisan consensus in Congress that is against direct ties between the granting of aid and General Assembly votes will hold. We must help make it so. In the House, the relevant appropriations subcommittee is State, Foreign Operations, and Related Programs. Their views on the Haley threats will become much clearer by mid-January. Please call subcommittee chair Hal Rogers of Kentucky (Republican) and ranking minority member Nita Lowey of New York (Democrat) and indicate how much it matters to you that the Congress send a bi-partisan signal that aid will be protected from the administration’s disorderly conduct. Call the office of Representative Hal Rogers at 202-225-4601 Call the office of Representative Nita Lowey at 202-225-6506
3) Don’t Forget to Show Your Lack of Love For the Wall
	Democrats and some Republicans have hopes of re-enacting DACA (Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals) in some form as a part of a mid-January bi-partisan budget deal. Because of this excellent prospect we have a fresh risk that someone will think it is a good idea to give Donald Trump his wall as a part of the complex give and take of negotiations. This cannot be allowed. Donald Trump wants the wall because it sends a global signal, with levels of meaning going way beyond the significance of the structure itself. For exactly the same reason, we cannot accept the building of the wall. The wall would be an emblem for the world of the failing of America. If you haven’t communicated with your own members of Congress on this, you should do so in the next week. And, you should boost an unlikely player. The more high-quality advocacy organizations battling the wall, the better. The Sierra Club’s borderlands project is concentrating the environmental arguments against the wall, opening up an all new political front. This is the rationale: “Walls and barriers have already been constructed across more than 650 miles of the U.S.-Mexico border. These barriers block wildlife migration, cause flooding, and damage pristine wild lands, including wildlife refuges, wilderness areas and national forests." Here is where to learn about and donate to the borderlands project.

The New Year awaits. In Congress, the Senate has nearly exhausted the ways that they can use the rules of budget reconciliation to pass measures with 50 votes. Instead, the need for Trump and McConnell to get 60 votes will put Charles Schumer and Democratic leadership in play in all new ways. It will also provide some new chances for fresh, would-be presidential candidates who also happen to be Democratic Senators to put themselves forward, such as Cory Booker, Kamela Harris, Kirsten Gillibrand, Amy Klobuchar, Elizabeth Warren, and Chris Murphy. It’s a good discussion to start having. Let’s see who among these and others have the dreams, the staying power and the strength of character to help rebuild a democracy.

David Harrison
Bainbridge Island, Washington