#103: The Harder the Conflict the More Glorious the Triumph

Thank you for continuing to share these messages with your friends. If you are not already on our mailing list, please click here to be added to our list. You can also follow me on Facebook where you can read and share these messages. The more people we can reach, the more we contribute to this growing movement. We share these posts on our blog, A Path Forward to November 3, 2020, every two weeks, leading up to the Presidential election of 2020, in which our country will select a whole new course.

This is the next to last of a series of 104 missives, filed every two weeks since the calamitous election of November 2016. In this house, we listened to classical music for a week after that election before we could bear to turn on the morning news. Then we decided that writing about the path forward and providing specific action steps every two weeks would help us play our own role in the resistance.

Word of mouth has given this blog nearly 2000 followers! We are a small part of the countless activist efforts around the country, mushrooming from the initial efforts of organizations like Indivisible, Swing Left, and Move On. We are all acquitting ourselves. Early on, many of us turned from despair and each became a part of a gigantic effort to have November 3, 2020 bring a fresh outcome and reclaim the idea of America. We are proud of our relentlessness during what has turned out to be an awful time. 

We are not going to be distracted by predicting an outcome. We feel good about our prospects and are eager to roll up our sleeves to repair this country, which was in need of serious work even before the Trump debacle began.

It is still about keeping our equilibrium. Without getting ahead of ourselves, we can be pleased at the levels of early voting in swing states. High turnout works to our advantage, so it is fair to be happy that Donald Trump, through his voter suppression efforts, has become the inadvertent chair of our Get out the Vote campaign. Given his past lack of verisimilitude, voters aren’t buying any of Trump’s attacks on Joe Biden, and they know we haven’t turned the corner in battling the virus. Thanks to a demonstration of integrity by the Wall Street Journal (who considered and rejected the story) they aren’t buying Trump’s false claim that Joe Biden benefited financially from Hunter Biden’s international contracts. Trump had been counting upon that as an October surprise. 

There are multiple paths for Biden and Harris to get to 270 electoral votes. It’s thought by many that we won’t know the outcome on election night, but that is no certainty. Yes, our key states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania will have been delayed in the certification and counting of mail in ballots by their state laws. However, Florida, Arizona and North Carolina all certify their mail in ballots as they arrive, guaranteeing that their election night totals will be meaningful. The Biden/Harris ticket showing well in one or more of those states would be terrific election evening news. And of course we will be keeping an eye on Georgia, Iowa, Ohio, and Texas as well.

Of course, getting the Senate majority is fundamental too, all the more so because of Amy Coney Barrett’s confirmation to the Supreme Court (which hopefully will cost Lindsay Graham his Senate seat). Here the important thing to remember is that there will not be 50 Democratic votes in the Senate to expand the size of the Supreme Court, regardless of Biden’s support or opposition.

Where court expansion comes into the picture is in tandem with another Democratic tool. If we gain the majority, Majority Leader Charles Schumer will increase the likelihood that Democrats will select the “nuclear option” which would change the rules to eliminate the 60-vote requirement to close debate. (This requirement was already eliminated by Harry Reid for federal judicial appointments and by Mitch McConnell for Supreme Court). The Democratic majority would start by using both court expansion and the nuclear option as a threat. They are hoping their prospective use of the nuclear option will generate lower resistance by Republican Senators to major legislation on health care and climate change.

On many legal fronts, control by Democrats of the Presidency, the House and the Senate will also enable them to fix any court-identified “defects” in the Affordable Care Act or other laws targeted by the increasingly conservative Supreme Court. Unfortunately, this repair option will be more difficult and complex in response to the Court’s interpretation of equal protection under the law, guaranteed by the 14th Amendment. Protection of the LGBQT community is threatened by the narrow interpretations of “originalist” judges. Whatever unfavorable rulings that emerge may be difficult for Congress to respond to through statutory changes. Eventually, we could end up requiring a stronger (but very difficult to achieve) constitutional amendment to protect previous legal gains. Moreover, as much as Republican Senator Susan Collins stresses otherwise, these justices do not see Roe v Wade as “settled law”.

So, the battles of the future will be intense. The first step is to win back the Presidency and the Senate by doing these three things:

1) Make a Nostalgia Filled Contribution to Theresa Greenfield
	Remember back to the days we you were sending more money than you planned to political candidates? With your help, Act Blue handled $1.5 billion in Democratic donations in the third quarter. If you are interested in revisiting old times with one more click, choose Theresa Greenfield, battling in Iowa against incumbent Joni Ernst. One of our Senatorial candidates is going to win or lose by a few thousand votes, and it would be a horrible thing to have happen to Theresa.
2) Don’t Miss Out on the Last Week’s Campaigning
	There is still campaign work being done around the country, including the all-important “curing” of ballots, which is helping voters correct the errors on their rejected ballots. Here is a full list of things you can be doing from the star activist Bill McClain: Ballot curing is an opportunity to make a difference in close, swing state elections. Click here to volunteer with Swing Left. Faithful America is running a series of textbanking events: join anytime between 2 - 5:30 p.m. Pacific Time on Wednesday (Oct 28) this week. They will likely announce additional shifts later in the week, too. Text young voters with NextGen Share the Vote.org link on social media and with friends in swing states. It makes it easy to find voting info, polling locations, etc. in every state.
3) Take Care of Yourself
	Go for a socially distanced walk. Take stock of your mental health. Lean on friends.

Thomas Paine reminds that “the harder the conflict the more glorious the triumph.” After this is over, if it is over, we can all think about what we have learned and what we can do next for our country. 

David Harrison
Bainbridge Island, Washington

#102: Make the Best Use of These Three Weeks

Thank you for continuing to share these messages with your friends. If you are not already on our mailing list, please click here to be added to our list. You can also follow me on Facebook where you can read and share these messages. The more people we can reach, the more we contribute to this growing movement. We share these posts on our blog, A Path Forward to November 3, 2020, every two weeks, which means there will be a total of 103 missives before the Presidential election of 2020, in which our country will select a whole new course.

We are as one in our refusal to prematurely count upon relief for our wounded souls on November 3. We have worked extremely hard to secure that result. Daily, we consume some positive reports on our progress, but we know this is no time for any airborne heel clicking. We can wait three weeks longer.

There are some voters who still believe that Trump cares about the average Joanne or Jose. The rest of us have watched the situation escalate from the unacceptable to the unimaginable to the surreal. The virus is not the only malady where Donald Trump has been the super spreader.

There are at least major differences between our circumstances today and where we stood in mid-October in 2016:

• We demonstrated our aptitude in generating higher voter turnout levels when we flipped 40 House seats in 2018. That same acumen is paying off in 2020, with enormous increases in requests for mail in ballots and very promising levels of early voting.
• Virtually all polls reveal that there are many fewer undecided voters than there were in 2016. Dislodging voters who are already committed is the goal of Trump's dishonest and virulent attacks on Joe Biden and Kamala Harris. It is unpoetic justice that it is those same attacks that are driving independent voters away from Trump.
• Joe Biden is polling ten points ahead among older Americans, who make up a quarter of the electorate. These Americans know that Trump misrepresenting, mismanaging, contracting and transmitting the virus threatens their lives. Those of us who are most susceptible to the virus are unhappy about that.

With all these forces in play that are enhancing our election chances, we are still not beyond teeth gnashing and pillowcase chewing. We will spend these last three weeks campaigning for candidates, supporting them financially, and increasing voter turnout.

From veteran activist Bill McClain we get a summary of how each of us can contribute to this three week push:

• Write
• It’s not too late to reach voters with postcards. PostcardsToVoters.org is focusing on the Ohio Supreme Court right now.
• https://votefwd.org makes it easy to send letters to voters. Saturday the 17th is the target mail date.
• Call
• FlipTheWest.com offers phone banking and training to get out the vote in key senate states
• SwingLeft offers it too.
• Text
• Texting works especially well with younger voters, and “Zoomers” (18-24) are the ones who lean farthest Left, yet turn out at the lowest rate — in part because of confusion about the voting process. So texting a note of encouragement along with a “how-to” link can be very worthwhile.
• NextGen has a menu of text banking events on their site.
• Email
• The VoteWithMe.us app will sync your phone’s address book with the public voter database to find people you know who may need a nudge. Then you can email, call or text them.
• Post
• Reinforce social norms by posting your own voter activity on social media. (I reviewed my voter guide; I filled out my ballot; I mailed my ballot… or, I put my ballot in the drop box)

And, that's just the start. We can do these three additional consequential things:

1) Be a Part of the Supreme Court Strategy
	Someone talked to Senate Democrats in advance and got them to decide on a well-conceived communication strategy to resist Amy Coney Barrett's Supreme Court nomination. It is perfect that the court is scheduled to hear oral arguments on the Affordable Care Act in November and extraordinary that Barrett is already on record opposing John Roberts' past protection of the ACA. Either the Democratic approach is a way to stop the nomination (much less likely) or a way to exact maximum protection for the ACA or the broader healthcare aspirations of Democrats. Senators Ben Sasse of Nebraska and Mitt Romney of Utah have both seen themselves as capable of principled independent thought in the face of Donald Trump. Write them both to tell them that voting for Supreme Court nominee in the week before the election is contrary to their 2016 promises and will overshadow their other actions during the remainder of their careers.
2) Develop a Method to Stand Up for Science
	You know it is a momentous time when Scientific American endorses a presidential candidate (in this case Joe Biden) for the first time in their 175-year history. This is an underscoring of the danger of the continued Republican attacks on scientific processes and evidence which if unabated will greatly diminish public policy making. This is also the subject of a recent special report and recommendations from thismissive. Please write Laura Helmuth editor of Scientific American to thank her and her staff for displaying their principles.
3) Make a Last Round of Donations
	Joe Biden has a cash advantage on Donald Trump during the last three weeks of the campaign. Virtually all of our targeted Senate candidates they have outraised their opponents. These things have happened because resisters of varied financial means have reached back to provide the financial support our candidates require. We have given early and we had given often. Now there's one last chance to boost our candidates before the final votes are cast. We could give $750 in honor of Trump's tax malfeasance or $75 or $7.50. Whatever the level, we are called to provide one more dollop of candidate support. In the Senate we should add at least a couple more races beyond those that have received the most attention. Two of the best ideas for a last minute boost are: Barbara Bollier of Kansas who has come from a distance and is polling even with her opponent in an open seat and Governor Steve Bullock of Montana who is running even with the incumbent. We should also look in our own regions for hard battling House candidates who are ready to go over the top. In the Northwest those very promising candidates include Alyse Galvin of Alaska and Carolyn Long of Washington both of whom just narrowly missed victory in 2018 and can build upon those past efforts.

We are campaigning, we're donating, and we are dreaming of the possible outcome of this four-year struggle.

David Harrison

Bainbridge Island, Washington

#101: Let’s Keep Our Bearings in Tumultuous Times

At this point, we do know the extent the virus will put the President in danger. For this reason, we are not sending the Path Forward blog that would have gone out today, Friday, October 2. As has been this blog’s practice, it would have included a detailed analysis of our present political situation, and steps to be taken between now and November 3. Instead, we are providing this shorter note. Our next issue of the blog will be on Wednesday, October 14.  If you are not already on our mailing list, please click here to be added to our list. You can also follow me on Facebook where you can read and share these messages. The more people we can reach, the more we contribute to this growing movement. We share these posts on our blog, A Path Forward to November 3, 2020, every two weeks, which means there will be a total of 103 missives before the Presidential election of 2020, in which our country will select a whole new course.

Donald Trump has contracted the virus that has overwhelmed our nation. This is one more disorienting event in a year that has threatened to unravel us. It is a huge and unfortunate threat to him personally, a national security concern for our nation, and a complication in the election process.

Joe Biden, Kamala Harris and other Democratic leaders know how to focus upon Donald Trump’s wellbeing while still attending to the last month of the campaign. It falls to all of us as resistors to keep our own bearings. We want health and safety for the President and for all Americans, and we look for a time in which the virus is under control. We still have so much to learn about how to fight against this pandemic, and we can’t wait to learn it until many more have died.

As of mid-week, we were in a strong campaign position, not only with Biden/Harris polling leads, but in numerous swing district races. The disclosures of Donald Trump’s tax returns was itself of major political significance. There is still no new stimulus deal. Democrats have been warning the Supreme Court appointment is a plan to reverse the Affordable Care Act and remove protection of Americans with pre-existing conditions.

Before the new news, it had also become clear that Donald Trump and other Republicans were carrying out a strategy to discredit the election as a way to suppress the vote. This included Trump saying “the results of the election may never be known”, which was disputed by Marco Rubio and six other Republicans from the Senate Intelligence Committee. Joe Biden has reassured the country that there will be a peaceful transition of power, and the House of Representatives passed a nearly unanimous resolution reaffirming that commitment. Trump’s refusal to pledge a peaceful transition is seen by many as an additional effort to discourage voting and thus depress Biden’s turnout.

There’s just over a month left. The thing to do is just what we have been doing all along. Make certain our candidates are well supported. Do as much door to door campaigning as the virus allows, and use calls, texts, and postcards to establish our one on one connections. We will remember that it will take more than a President to move us all forward after November 3. Let’s make certain that Joe Biden and Kamala Harris have the Senators on their side that they need to do the work of a nation.

We are feeling very good about the chances for Democratic candidates John Hickenlooper in Colorado, Mark Kelly in Arizona, Sara Gideon in Maine and Cal Cunningham in North Carolina. There is one thing to do--- go out and get at least another four.

Here are the other races being talked about. In each case, we will either win by a small margin or lose by a small margin. Money matters. Let’s continue to make certain that these candidates have the help they need.

1. In Iowa, Theresa Greenfield has come from behind and is polling ahead of Joni Ernst. 
2. In South Carolina, in every Democrat’s dream, Jaime Harrison is running even with Lindsay Graham. 
3. In Georgia, Jon Ossoff is even or barely trailing David Perdue. 
4. In Montana, we could be doing everything possible for Steve Bullock. 

And, there are other races for which there is a case to be made. 

1. Barbara Bollier has some promising recent polls in Kansas. 
2. Al Gross has been closing in on Dan Sullivan all summer in Alaska. 
3. The second Georgia seat will involve a runoff, which will hopefully feature Democratic candidate Raphael Warnock. 

In the month ahead, we will hope for the recovery and health of Donald Trump and every other world citizen beset by the virus. We plan to win on November 3, and expect to put our shoulder behind the wheel for a new American age.

David Harrison

Bainbridge Island, Washington

#100: Bonus Special Report: Protecting Science in the Trump Era and Beyond

This special report on science and public policy in the age of Donald Trump has been prepared for The Path Forward blog by Benjamin K. Harrison, Phd., a CalTech-trained environmental microbiologist. Harrison is co-founder of the Data Engagement and Access Project, an environmental organization dedicated to expanding citizen use of environmental data at the local level.

Donald Trump’s wrongs against science range from the criminal (pushing hydroxychloroquine as a treatment for COVID-19 for the sake of political advantage) to the trivial (modifying a weather map with a sharpie). He has famously denied the science behind climate change (“a Chinese hoax”; “it’ll start getting cooler… you just watch”) and misrepresented other important areas of research (forest management, meteorology) in order to downplay it. He has fought against ethical, effective response to COVID-19 since before it existed, removing or ignoring government infrastructure designed to protect against pandemics. 

He downplayed the COVID threat, mistimed or misdirected every effort to slow the spread at the borders, pushed treatments that were either unverified (at first) or demonstrably ineffective, and actively fought against life-saving public health efforts (masks, social distancing). Trump’s desperate promotion of an early vaccine has ruined any confidence the public could muster, even should the considerable research power of the nation and world achieve an accelerated timeline. He pulled the nation out of the World Health Organization in the midst of a global pandemic over political pique.

No Republican voice in Congress has adequately worked against Trump’s intent to place his political fortune before American lives and livelihoods. They all deserve to be voted from office over matters of science.

Scientists and allies often make the mistake of treating any individual attack on science in isolation. Certainly, each separate issue needs to be diligently communicated to the public, and each deserves a good faith discussion pairing advocacy and skepticism. Unfortunately, this can be insufficient, because Republican opposition to science and damage to scientific institutions is not targeted at any particular topic. The arguments against COVID recycle the ammunition of the fights against climate science, against evolution, and against tobacco regulation. Each has these characteristics:

• Amplifying the voices of token, select “experts” against scientific consensus (sometimes even using the same contrarian voices, regardless of subject).
• Using the innate uncertainty of science to demand perpetual, excessive skepticism and inaction.
• Attacking the character and ethics of scientists to separate them from the lay public.
• Exploiting the media’s propensity to voice “all sides” without revealing their proportional representation.

The significant damage the conservative movement has done to science predates Trump, including the undermining of the public’s necessarily active role in the scientific process, attacks on science as a profession, and pervasive misinformation concerning the scientific process. It is a rejection of that essential good-faith participation in scientific critique. The GOP must be defeated electorally, but the case for taking action to correct the damage it has done invites further explanation.

Some things we learned about science in school are inaccurate.

Not “wrong” or “false” – the truth of any scientific matter is always the goal, but rarely the conclusion. Consider an example from K-12 biology: life may be classified into 4+ distinct kingdoms. Most of us first learned from such a system in grade school, but we know now that it has some shortcomings (e.g., poor representation of evolutionary descent). Based on evidence gathered from widespread genetic sequencing, Carl Woese and colleagues published a seminal article in 1990, dividing all life into 3 “Domains” – Archaea, Bacteria, Eucarya – in which the common descent of all life on Earth is more clearly depicted. Woese’s model, too, has some weaknesses – it’s hard to imagine any classification scheme could avoid that caveat… or ultimately resist improvement. Moreover, any rigorous descriptive system (including the kingdom classification) may be useful in specific circumstances and weak in others. 

The empirical foundation of science we learned in grade school is still intact – it is iterative and infinite, as each observation generates a hypothesis and each hypothesis is tested by observation. To be “wrong” is often a necessary step in becoming more knowledgeable. This process is inherently communal – there is no rational problem that cannot be more readily solved by more observers (including laypeople) acting in good faith. Where science becomes entangled with politics or other public pressure, the most common error is to short-circuit the process – to seek or promote only such evidence as fits a preconceived notion. 

One early scandal within the broad COVID-19 crisis illustrates both the failings and resiliencies of public science. In May, respected medical journals The Lancet and the New England Journal of Medicine published COVID articles that relied on data ostensibly collected by a small, private data science company, Surgisphere. In June, both articles were retracted, after careful observers pointed out implausible characteristics of the data (e.g., a count of Australian deaths that exceeded government records) and the company refused a full independent audit. The overwhelming demand to publish often, to disseminate research in key journals, or to discover breakthroughs that generate private investment each conflict with professional ethics at the best of times. The justifiable need to treat or cure COVID-19 only increases the pressure, and we should anticipate that some researchers will fail that ethical test, consciously or unconsciously.

We should expect the scientific community and the public at large to correct mismanaged research. Rigorous analysis is needed to detect errors that eluded the first pass of peer review in academic journals and to demonstrate error through further investigation. In the COVID case, this is poor consolation when a policy impact of bad research outpaces correction. Time, evidence, and good science eventually leave us better informed and better able to use that knowledge in public policy on any given topic, even if not so quickly as we would prefer. 

Public support for that good science is somewhat sheltered from Trump misadministration by balkanized government oversight – the Departments of Defense, Energy, Interior (US Geological Survey), Commerce (NOAA), and HHS (NIH) all have roles in science funding. EPA and NASA are independent agencies. At least four Senate committees and six House committees exercise meaningful authority over science issues. The professional ranks of government agencies are still filled with earnest, qualified practitioners. If we elect representatives who practice sensible support of science and choose qualified political appointees, the science infrastructure of government will recover from these past four years. 

The same cannot so easily be said for institutional damage to the scientific process. Like democracy, science benefits from earnest participation. As with democracy, Republicans have done lasting damage to science by discouraging engagement and spreading misinformation on the process. 

Beyond defeating the GOP in November, there are 3 targeted ways to help:

1) Join in Citizen Science and Community Science
	Republican mythology on the “ivory tower” implies science is done by “other” people, academics unconcerned with the livelihood of the public and disconnected from their reality. Everyone can do science, and scientists are real people living in our communities. The greatest limitation on who conducts the research that informs policy is the choice to participate. Local school districts, universities, city, county and state-level agencies need volunteers and often offer training. For example, the University of Washington is affiliated with projects helping volunteers monitor beach waste and seabird mortality. Zooniverse facilitates numerous research projects which volunteers can assist from their own computers. There is nothing anyone can teach community members about the scientific method that surpasses the learning experience of participation. One of the best things we can do for science education, as well, is to discover such experiential learning opportunities for our children.
2) Support Science Policy Organizations
	There are many worthy scientific organizations for membership, volunteering, and contributions, covering a variety of missions from advocacy (Union of Concerned Scientists) to education (National Association of Geoscience Teachers; National Science Teachers Association, and the American Association for the Advancement of Science). 314 Action works to directly elect scientists to public office, including providing training in conducting political races. In the 2018 cycle the group helped support eight successful candidates for the House of Representatives, one Senator, and boosted many state-level legislative races.
3) Contribute to Targeted Races
	In April, Dr. Rick Bright was removed from his position as director of the US government’s Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, seemingly over his concerns with the government’s focus on hydroxychloroquine, and after he filed a whistleblower complaint. He testified in May before the House Energy and Commerce committee. One of the Republicans who attacked Bright (and boosted hydroxychloroquine) was Richard Hudson (NC-08). He alleged “this hearing is not about a whistleblower complaint… it's about undermining the administration during a national and global crisis.” Hudson is in a competitive race (PVI R+8, leans Republican by Cook Political Report) against Patricia Timmons-Goodson. Also, In the Senate, Cory Gardner has embraced Trump and attacked public health experts for “politicizing” the pandemic.5 In November, we have the opportunity to replace Gardner with former professional geologist John Hickenlooper.

COVID in America is clear evidence of the consequences of anti-science demagoguery Republicans have promoted for decades. Conservatives have not managed to fully silence voices in national and state government promoting responsible public health. They have not managed to silence our collective knowledge of responsible conduct. With effort, we can take that lesson and meet future crises in health and environmental change.

Benjamin K. Harrison

#100: Put Out Each of Trump’s Dumpster Fires

Keep your eyes focused on your inbox for an upcoming special blog report on the role of science in governmental decision making and the widespread abuse of science by Donald Trump.

Thank you for continuing to share these messages with your friends. If you are not already on our mailing list, please click here to be added to our list. You can also follow me on Facebook where you can read and share these messages. The more people we can reach, the more we contribute to this growing movement. We share these posts on our blog, A Path Forward to November 3, 2020, every two weeks, which means there will be a total of 103 missives before the Presidential election of 2020, in which our country will select a whole new course.

Just under seven weeks until the election, Donald Trump wants to knock the American voter off stride. He is hoping to generate so many false claims about Joe Biden, the virus, and election practices that disgusted voters will walk away from the whole thing. It will be a turnout election, which benefits Democrats, so Trump and allies have been intent for months now on voter suppression. They know that if we all act like we did in 2018 when we secured record turnouts, this awful nightmare will be over on November 3.

To this point, that is exactly how we are acting. As we rely on mail-in ballots to enable citizens to vote during the pandemic, Trump is doing everything and saying everything he can to sully the process, even though he could end up depressing his own turnout. That’s because national polls have around 50% of likely voters intending to vote for Biden and Harris, with another 7% or 8% undecided. Biden’s totals have been uncommonly invulnerable to Trump’s attacks. Trump needs to get a few million people to form an all new opinion about Biden or about voting in the next few weeks. He is running out of time.

It seems bizarre that he would return again to his too small base, but in addition to his craven desire for their love, it is a plan of sorts. He is trying to lock up a huge percentage of every human who could possibly vote for him, and at the same time discredit voting so much that countless other Americans will want to get fumigated rather than cast a ballot. His biggest problem is that the fulminations, deceptions, and prevarications have been noticed by many sentient human beings. The focus upon him in the daily news cycle is itself the number one Democratic get out the vote scheme.

We have not won yet, and we aren’t going to stop worrying about our country until we do (or even after that), but there is evidence that helps us fight the disorientation that Trump seeks.

• The polling averages at Real Clear Politics show us with a lead in eight states that Trump won in 2016: Florida, Arizona, Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Wisconsin and North Carolina. Iowa, Texas and Georgia are in play, too. For Biden, there are dozens of paths to 270 electoral votes, and there are many fewer for Trump.

• There are encouraging signs on generating turnout. We lead in new voter registrations in several swing states. The same approach is generating great results in vote by mail applications. Democratic requests are far greater than Republican requests in targeted states including 451,000 to 294,000 in Florida.

• Bob Woodward’s Rage is solidifying Trump’s deserved electoral disadvantage on virus management. As much as the media has identified the donning of masks as a blue vs red division, nearly three quarters of Americans approve of requirements to wear masks in public.

• Michael Bloomberg’s pledge to spend $100 million in Florida is very significant. The 538 and Real Clear Politics polling averages give Biden a narrow lead in Florida which Bloomberg’s spending can bolster. The new Monmouth University poll (highly rated by 538) has Biden with a 5% lead.

There has been considerable punditry on what a mess November could be. There will be the usual tensions and often false claims on election day events that will hopefully sort themselves out. There will be restraining orders sought against election officials as mail-in ballots continue to be counted, as Trump argues that he has been cheated, and as a nation speculates about his reluctance to leave the White House. 

It is possible or perhaps even likely that Trump’s unwillingness to guarantee that he is leaving is just another one of the dumpster fires he has been lighting to suppress the vote and to set up a claim of fraud so that his followers won’t see him as a “loser”. But of course we can’t leave anything to chance, and therefore we must do these three things:

1) Eliminating the “Red Mirage”
	There has been some considerable and understandable hand wringing over what will surely be much more extensive use of mail-in ballots by Democrats than Republicans. Virtually every swing state permits either “no excuse necessary” absentee voting or otherwise provides a clear path to a mail in ballot. The argument goes that this could create a red mirage. A disproportionate number of Trump supporters could cast their ballots at the polls, creating a misperception of his electoral strength on election night. However, several swing states begin processing and certifying their mail-in ballots weeks before November 3. On election night, they count those already certified ballots at the same time as they receive the totals from polling places that are closing. These include four key states where Joe Biden is running ahead--- Arizona, Ohio, North Carolina, Florida. If we send our mail-in ballots early and continue to stress voter turnout, totals from these states could eliminate the red mirage from the outset. Unfortunately, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania have rules that prevent earlier processing and certification only starts in earnest on election day. That could change in Pennsylvania, where Democratic governor Tom Wolf is negotiating with Republicans in the State Legislature to allow counties to begin processing three weeks before the election. Wolf is committed to taking other steps to expedite counting. Write him today and urge him to stay focused on this challenge until he fixes it.
2) Helping Donald Trump Out the Door
	Every Member of Congress has an opinion on whether Donald Trump’s comments about not honoring the results of the election are concerning. No one is accustomed to having this discussion. Many or even most feel it is just one more part of the above described miseries, in which Trump will allege he was cheated out of re-election to try to solidify his future following, not because he would actually refuse to leave. It is not anything one would want to leave to chance, so it is a certainty that this is being talked about quietly in Congress, the Administration and in Justice John Roberts’ chambers. Senior Senators are valuable on this score. Contact the three retiring Republican Senators and tell them that they must pay attention to what for them is a very uncomfortable issue, and that the world is watching. Call Senator Lamar Alexander of Tennessee at (202) 224-4944 Call Senator Pat Roberts of Kansas at (202) 224-4774 Call Senator Mike Enzi of Wyoming at (202) 224-3422
3) Give Again to Joe Biden and Kamala Harris
	Collectively, all of us gave $364 million to this ticket in August, an unprecedented total and major momentum builder. This has given this ticket a strong cash advantage going into the final weeks of the campaign. Surely, there are lots of ways to donate to achieve the correct outcome of November 3, but this particular way is calling attention to itself at this very moment. If possible, click and donate at least one more time: https://joebiden.com/.

In our worst nightmares in November of 2016 we did not anticipate the depths of what has transpired. However, we do anticipate the exhilaration of having it be over, no matter how much future work will be before us.

David Harrison
Bainbridge Island, Washington

#99: We Haven’t Won Yet, But We Will

Thank you for continuing to share these messages with your friends. If you are not already on our mailing list, please click here to be added to our list. You can also follow me on Facebook where you can read and share these messages. The more people we can reach, the more we contribute to this growing movement. We share these posts on our blog, A Path Forward to November 3, 2020, every two weeks, which means there will be a total of 103 missives before the Presidential election of 2020, in which our country will select a whole new course.

Three quarters of Americans know the country is headed in the wrong direction. Donald Trump’s response is that Americans are wrong to feel that way, given the collection of made up stories that he has developed about himself, the virus, the economy, and race. In fact, Americans should be thanking him for all the calamities his courage and wisdom have averted.

However, if after hearing of such greatness we still do feel that America has grave challenges or is going down the wrong path, it is Barack Obama’s fault not his, until now, when it has become Joe Biden’s fault, not his. The number of days in his life in which he feels responsible or has been held responsible for his decisions and actions remains at zero. Until November 3.

New events, false claims and outrageous assertions overtake whatever sense of order we seek to develop. Donald Trump has put falsehoods on the throne, and led truth to the scaffold. And every one of the steps he has taken to create a false reality is intentional, malevolent, and self-serving. 

“It was miraculous. It was almost no trick at all, he saw, to turn vice into virtue and slander into truth, impotence into absence, arrogance into humility, plunder into philanthropy, thievery into horny, blasphemy into wisdom, brutality into patriotism and sadism into justice. Anybody could do it. It required no brains at all. It merely required no character.” - Joseph Heller

In the face of this constant barrage, what are we to do? The only comfort in the fact that he and his supplicants will say anything and try to do anything, is that their diminished electoral chances have contributed to their desperation. Either way, Donald Trump is not going to discover a new way. After his aberrant and anomalous election we took back the House in 2018 has brought millions of independent voters to our side. It isn’t any demonstration, any city or even any violence that spurs Donald Trump’s 5am tweets. It is our voter registration efforts, millions of postcards, voting by mail, huge anticipated turnout, and our ticket itself.

We are all relentless. Millions of us are doing what we can every day. We know why it counts and we know what to do. Beyond our campaigning (directly for candidates or through activist organizations) even those of us who are not regular political donors have become so out of necessity. Money matters, so whatever we can give must be made to count by us exercising care on where we send it. If we are able, we should donate much more than planned, because this particular quest demands that we do not do just everything we want to, but everything we can. It’s difficult to fathom how our contributions are impactful individually, but it couldn’t be clearer how much they matter collectively.

These are the approaches that stretch and target our dollars:

The Best Time to Give Is Now
Now is the time that organizers are deployed, placements for advertising are secured, and millions of volunteers require coordination. If you are giving to a candidate, the dollar you can give to them now is considerably more valuable than the dollar you can give in October. It helps her or him set the table for our final sixty days of the campaign.

Start with Biden/Harris
There are many ways to provide your financial support, but it is smart to begin by giving money directly to the Presidential ticket Funds raised by the candidates directly (including smaller donations) are part of the campaign’s story, a regularly monitored signal of strength. Properly supported, Joe Biden and Kamala Harris will not only free the nation on November 3, they will help carry along candidates in countless other races.

Select an Intermediary with the Right Plan
There is nothing wrong with picking an intermediary to distribute your donations as long as that intermediary has a sensible, transparent plan that you can get behind. That’s been the strength of Swing Left, which has become a major force since its inception in December of 2016. Among other things, they have done a good job of taking into account all that is in play in a targeted state. This includes House and Senate races and whether one or both houses of the State Legislature can be flipped. Their National Impact fund emphasizes Florida, Texas and the key Senate races in Iowa, Maine, Georgia and North Carolina. In addition to Swing Left, other intermediaries offer packages where they receive a single check and distribute it to multiple beneficiaries. Each should be carefully examined to see which candidates and organizations are being supported. Act Blue has provided indispensable infrastructure for campaign giving, but skip their requested “tip” for now and label all of your donation for direct use.

Be Discerning When You Select Senatorial Candidates
In addition to our very good prospects for winning the Presidency, we need to take back the Senate. We need a minimum of a net pick up of three seats. Accounting for the possible loss of Doug Jones in Alabama, we need to beat four incumbents. There is a lot of confidence in the leads put together by Mark Kelly in Arizona, Cal Cunningham in North Carolina and John Hickenlooper in Colorado. That gives us the opportunity to move beyond those contests and to push over the top some of these candidates who are running in very promising tight races:

• Theresa Greenfield over Joni Ernst in Iowa 
• Steve Bullock over Steve Daines in Montana 
• Sara Gideon over Susan Collins in Maine 
• Jon Ossoff over David Perdue in Georgia

If one has more funds available, spending them even more broadly has its merits, especially in supporting the spirited campaign and potential upset of the sycophantic Lindsay Graham by Jaime Harrison in South Carolina. 

Fight Voter Suppression as an Important Way to Win the Election
Trump’s supporters are bent on getting as low a turnout as they can, because they know the last ten million votes are more likely to be Biden supporters than fans of Trump. Thus, a major investment in winning this election could be registering voters, working to get out the vote, helping to get people to the polls or to a ballot box, or guiding someone to use a mail in ballot. Here too, the earlier the financial investment the better. As this missive has previously stressed, one outstanding investment in registering voters and getting out the voter is Mi Familia Vota. They have expanded their work with Latino voters in Florida and Southwestern states to an all new effort in the Midwest, which could use some help. They deserve some of the credit for a huge voter turnout increase in the Arizona primaries.

Pick a State that Matters the Most
Finally, it would be a great way to invest in the outcome of November 3 if one were to pick a specific state and devote a considerable portion of one’s resources in that state. There is no better state than Florida, where positive returns could bring a paroxysm of joy on election night. The polling averages show Biden ahead. Winning Florida would dramatically reduce Trump’s opportunity to collect sufficient electoral votes. There are a number of ways to invest in Florida, including the spirited effort to register ex-offenders who have become eligible to vote through a recent Florida constitutional amendment. 

Another way to engage is to advance intense on the ground organizing, making certain that our voters are registered, have their ballots, and are not going to get scared out of voting by Donald Trump. Forward Florida Action is on that agenda and can use a boost. 

We all give in different ways. Postcard writing is a donation just as much as a check. But if one or more checks (or online donation clicks) are possible, today would be the time. With all that giving paramount in this week’s act, we can find time to do three more things to attend to the republic over the next sixty days. Each calls for us to thank a Republican Senator for paying some attention to the oversight role of Congress, though far less than we would have hoped.

1) Beseech Marco Rubio to Step Forward
	The Intelligence community will no longer provide in person briefings to Congressional Intelligence committees on the subject of election security. This is an obvious attempt to hide that our nation still has not brought foreign election meddling under control. Acting Senate Intelligence chair Marco Rubio was not informed in advance of the switch and has said that it “creates a historic crisis” by weakening the ability of the Senate to carry out oversight. Please email Rubio and ask him to vigorously protect these briefings.
2) Thank Richard Burr for Attending to the Truth
	More than a year after Robert Mueller was sidetracked by the Attorney General, the Senate Intelligence Committee has issued a massive report documenting regular co-operation between the Trump campaign and Russian operatives.  Even though it is late for these truths to become evident, it is telling that this report received the approval of all but one of the Senate Republicans on the committee. Please email Chair Richard Burr to commend his tirelessness for shepherding this process and working across the aisle.
3) Ask Charles Grassley to Redouble His Efforts
	Republican Senator Charles Grassley wanted his legacy to feature the establishment of strong Inspectors General at each cabinet agency to be on the frontlines of rooting out corruption.  The system which he was indispensable in creating has been smashed by Donald Trump. Write Charles Grassley and ask him not to give up and to work to put this system back together piece by piece.

We haven’t won the election yet, but we plan to. We are doing the things we need to do to get it done. Our position is strong. Let’s walk away from the wall of worry and finish the job.

David Harrison
Bainbridge Island, Washington

#98: We Will Stop Trump from Dismantling the Election

Thank you for continuing to share these messages with your friends. If you are not already on our mailing list, please click here to be added to our list. You can also follow me on Facebook where you can read and share these messages. The more people we can reach, the more we contribute to this growing movement. We share these posts on our blog, A Path Forward to November 3, 2020, every two weeks, which means there will be a total of 100 missives before the Presidential election of 2020, in which our country will select a whole new course.

Followers of this blog/post/e-blast have a unique opportunity to hear from one of the leaders in the effort to register voters for November and fight voter suppression. Eduardo Sainz of Mi Familia Vota has led his organization's efforts in Arizona to increase the Latino vote and is leader of their national get-out-the-vote effort. Mi Familia Vota has just expanded its targeted efforts from six states in the southwest and west to several Midwestern states. Please sign up to join us on Monday, August 31st at 7pm PST by emailing me at dsh347@gmail.com and we will send you the handy zoom link when the time draws near.

For some time, we have reminded ourselves that Donald Trump will do anything to “win” an election. There is no sense of wonder that Trump would now turn to the Postal Service or the Census to try to change the outcome that is emerging, on November 3 or over time. There’s no surprise that we are examining whether he will resist leaving the oval office after we defeat him. 

Turnout is our electoral strength, with our potential even higher upon the nomination of Kamala Harris. Donald Trump wants to tarnish this election to make it less likely you will vote in it. Across America, resisters are saying, “He can’t do all of these things, can he? He has not been fully checked in previous assaults on the Constitution, so why should we have any confidence in how things will go on November 3? Worse, his own party has an abysmal record of blocking his authoritarian intentions.

On all three threats, we already know how to respond, and how to prevail. Donald Trump knows what we know. Yes, he would burn down all our post offices if he could get away with it. In the absence of that strategy, he expects that mail in ballots will be delivered, and counted, he’s just trying to drive the totals down. His aim is to make the cloud surrounding the election so dark that voters will elect not to participate. It is his primary voter suppression technique, and he practices it every day.

The United States Postal Service processes and delivers 500 million pieces of mail a day, through 31,000+ post offices, whose employees are not all hanging on the Postmaster General’s every word. As the Atlantic points out, there is no issue in the capacity of USPS to handle the volume of less than a 100 million mail in ballots. The issue instead is whether the USPS political leadership will seek to change processes to impair the capacity. The funds that Nancy Pelosi will insist that USPS be provided in the next stimulus package is insurance--- they block the intentional impairment of the capacity, and cast light on dark deeds. There will not be a stimulus package unless these matters are attended to.

Nancy Pelosi and the public outcry will prevent the worst behavior by the Post Office management, but it falls to all of us to prevent the collateral damage that Trump always intended. It’s essential that turnout remain our advantage. Already, countless campaigns and organizations are turning the availability of mail ballots into a central tool. In every swing state except Texas, mail in ballots can be secured without the voter needing to provide a reason. 76% of American voters have the mail in option. It’s even possible that Trump’s false claims of fraud will depress the vote of his own supporters.

A few states honor November 3 postmarks, but many more do not, including more than a few where the cast ballot must arrive by election day. Absentee balloting will begin as early as late September in some states. The goal is to send our ballots in by October 22. This will not only guard against any slow delivery, but it will guarantee that there will be higher totals to be announced on election night. Rather than the outcome being dragged out over weeks (as Trump claims) we can secure totals on the evening of November 3 that will show Trump the door.

So the question becomes whether he will go out the door once he is shown the door. Here too, it is bizarrely in his interests to sully the election by failing to guarantee that he will leave. That is because he wants to be able to maintain that the election was stolen (by mail in ballots) no matter what the totals. It is all part of depressing the vote, which he sees as his victory path.

He has to foul the nest to have a chance to occupy the nest, so will say “we’ll have to see” all the way to November 3. After that, the equation changes. This country’s institutions, including the Courts, the Congress (yes, the Congress) and the military have every interest in the peaceful transition of power. More important to Trump, so do the financial markets. A refusal by Trump to go would send markets into a deep dive. It would sharply reduce Trump’s beloved (and overstated) assets, and increase his chances of going to prison. He won’t do it.

The best defense here again is turnout sufficient to sweep all or nearly all of the swing states. In each we hold a lead. Since we know that Trump is capable of trying anything, we defend against everything, but we keep on winning this election the old fashioned way.
Trump’s third means of creating disorder is a work in progress. At the Commerce Department, Wilbur Ross is seeking to end the Census count a month earlier than planned, by the end of September. 

This raises the specter of minority populations being undercounted. If the Census Bureau reports faulty numbers to Congress on December 31, it could have a deleterious impact on the distribution of certain federal funds and the apportionment of Congressional seats ultimately on the equitable drawing of district lines.

This is a yet unresolved matter. There is some good news. First, a bi-partisan group of Senators including Mitch McConnell (inexplicably) has urged Nancy Pelosi to use the stimulus package or freestanding legislation to extend the date when the Census report is due to Congress. Second, even if this fails, the Congress convening in 2021 could take steps to reject or improve upon the impaired count. On this front, it would seem prudent to make certain we win the Senate majority.

Let’s celebrate Kamala Harris. We have our ticket. We are ahead and we are going to win if we don’t let up for a second. Since each of the above requires our attention, and since vigilance is liberty’s price, let’s do these three things right away.

1) Protect the United States Postal Service
	The battle is not even close to over. The USPS has issued a statement saying they will do their job this fall. We will make sure this promise is honored. It’s not a bad idea (next time you are masked up and buying stamps) to talk to as senior a manager as you can find in your local post office. As you know the voter suppression talk isn’t coming from them. The not so evident players on this challenge are the Secretaries of State in each state. Their national association has asked Postmaster General Louis DeJoy for a meeting about USPS obligations, and he has agreed. Notably, the letter was signed by two Republican and two Democratic Secretaries of State.  We can all make sure these elected officials from both parties realize the seriousness of their obligation. You can email nass@sso.org or phone them at 202-624-3529. And, if you are feeling spirited, you can give your carefully worded input to Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose, who is a Republican and who signed the letter.
2) Protect the Census
	The Census count ending early is a profound problem, even though there will be additional ways in the next several months to protect the integrity of the census. At this point, the best thing to do is to call your Senator in support of the bi-partisan letter, which calls for a delay in the Census report date to Congress. If you want to be a litigant as well, there is no better organization to support than the Brennan Center at NYU.
3) Send a Signal This Week to Support Biden and Harris
	The best defense against Trump’s multi-front attack on the Constitution is a resounding victory on November 3. As well as the Biden/Harris ticket is doing in reaching out to all those who cannot abide Trump, there are resisters who are not sure that they are with us. You know which, if any, of your friends meet this description. This is a good week to remind them that Trump’s assaults on the USPS and the Census Bureau and his meditations on not vacating the office transcend the every four year battle about who should be President. Protecting the Constitution is the first order of business and they must be a part of that business. You can also gently remind them of the epic battle that Ruth Bader Ginsburg is fighting. Ask them to become a part of her struggle, making it unthinkable that Trump will get a third appointment to the Supreme Court.

Each of Trump’s endless series of attacks on our country demonstrates not our powerlessness, but our power. We are fully marshaled and we know what to do.

David Harrison
Bainbridge Island, Washington