Thank you for continuing to share these messages with your friends. If you are not already on our mailing list, please click here to be added to our list. You can also follow me on Facebook where you can read and share these messages. The more people we can reach, the more we contribute to this growing movement. We share these posts on our blog, A Path Forward to November 3, 2020, every two weeks, which means there will be a total of 100 missives before the Presidential election of 2020, in which our country will select a whole new course.
Until November 6, 2020, no expressions of joy or impromptu dances will be permitted. It is nice to have the most important election of our lifetimes shaping up. It certainly beats the alternative. But of course we are not close to done. We can drive ourselves through positive recognition of what we resistors have accomplished so far and will accomplish next year, and skip the head-shaking, energy draining despair part, which doesn’t do us any good.
It’s great to have Joe Biden poll four points ahead of Donald Trump in Texas, because putting Texas in play would be delicious, and it would signal the opening up of other states we haven’t won recently. The more states legitimately in play, the better for us. Trump’s disapproval ratings outstrip his approval ratings in lots of states he needs to win, like New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Michigan, Iowa, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Ohio, North Carolina and Indiana. We won the Congressional popular vote by 8.6 million votes last November, and Trump is not showing signs of making inroads, or even knowing how to make inroads. Isn’t his act pretty clear by now?
The Texas poll is not even the best news. 57% of American voters have no plans to vote for Trump. A new Quinnipiac poll shows Biden ahead of Trump by 13 points in a head to head matchup, and Warren, Sanders, Harris, Booker and Buttigieg all significantly ahead as well. Analysts continue to stress Trump’s strength with his base, but he can’t win without a strong showing among independents, and they have walked away from him, many in a hurry. Among independents, Biden leads Trump by 30 percentage points!
We can seek and achieve gains with each category of voter. Even diehard white male Trump voters can have their breaking point. An Iowa farmer might be less Trump-besotted after Trump destroys the Chinese market for his soybeans and then insists that it’s the Chinese who are suffering the economic losses from the tariffs.
It’s good to remember where we achieved significant gains in November 2018 that we need to sustain. We need to continue to be attentive to:
- suburban women, who put Trump over the top in 2016 and who have flown since, in many cases providing our winning margins in taking back House seats. It is clear that health care is a big issue for these voters, as is reproductive freedom, and Trump’s unabated misogyny.
- independents and Republicans who are lifelong free traders, and who are now in closer step with Democratic candidates, who seek trade protection and advantage but are not tariff-abusers.
- voters aged 18 to 30, who due to considerable registration and get out the vote efforts, cast ballots in their highest off-year election numbers in 40 years. They broke decisively away from Trump in 2018 and need to do it again. Trump’s favorability rating with this age cohort is under 30%.
The Congressional Research Service has established what we already knew, that the new tax law was a raiding of the treasury. Any growth it has generated has covered only 5% of the revenues lost. By far its greatest impact has been corporations repurchasing their own shares, benefiting their largest shareholders and thus comforting the comfortable. In response, our candidates will demonstrate their plans to get the middle class back in the nation’s field of vision.
Our candidates are running on advancing health care, protecting those with pre-existing conditions, and once and for all, rejoining the community of nations in fighting climate change. They are running on restoring global alliances that have served our country well. They are seeking to decommission tariffs as an all-purpose weapon randomly applied against our friends. They are for advancing the rule of law, knowing how government works, and keeping dictators at a distance.
By October 1, there will need to be action on the federal budget and a lifting of the federal debt ceiling. Congress will face the latter decision earlier than otherwise because of the drastic reduction in federal revenues caused by tax “reform.” By the end of the summer, they will have another major issue depending on what position Fox TV commentators and Donald Trump develop. We will need a federal budget for the next fiscal year and an increase in the debt ceiling. Democrats will refuse to budge on wall construction. Both parties will try to avoid automatic budget cuts that reduce both defense and domestic spending, and will want to compromise by funding each other’s priority, thus increasing the deficit. Will Donald Trump seek to shut down the government, and own the resulting debacle all over again?
There will be a time this summer to try and push Mitch McConnell and his caucus away from the “legislative graveyard” they have created with House-passed bills. A few Republicans are inclined to push back against his intransigence. Perhaps more exciting, an even larger number of Republican Senators are battling Trump on his terms for selling arms to Saudi Arabia. Many members are interested in ways to rein in his out of control tariff-slapping escapades. Since mild disapproval of Trump’s course of action is seen by Republican Senators as eligible for inclusion in Profiles in Courage, we will need to defeat Trump before any kind of real Republican Party emerges. If then.
For now, with the Democratic debates coming up, let’s attend to our own candidates. At the presidential level, passion to fix the huge problems we face is the start, but not the end. Let’s find a presidential candidate and a vice presidential candidate who are leaders, who can unite their party, who can capture the imagination and support of the voters, who care about people, and who will soundly defeat Donald Trump. As we get them elected, let’s defend the House and give them the majorities in the Senate and in a growing number of state legislatures so they can get their job done.
Let’s do these three things now:
| 1) Pick a Presidential Candidate Who is Trailing | |
 | It’s already become a game of inches for several of the declared Presidential candidates who are trailing. They dread being put on a media list of candidates who are surely going to fall by the wayside. In the near term, this list is very likely to include Bill de Blasio, Tulsi Gabbard, John Hickenlooper, Eric Swallwell, and Seth Moulton, among others. You can help other candidates escape this list and get a chance to increase their traction over the summer. You know that Biden, Warren, Sanders, Buttigieg, Harris and Booker are going to be around for a while. If you haven’t done it already, pick someone who may be trailing those six and donate to their campaign now or get on their mailing list, so you will get a chance to hear what they have to say and so they will have a chance to move up a tier, or perhaps become a vice presidential candidate. Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar? Washington Governor Jay Inslee? Entrepreneur Andrew Yang? Former HUD Secretary Julian Castro? |
2) Guarantee that Strong Candidates Help Us Take Back the Senate | |
 | There’s not a better plan out there to gain control of the Senate than Swing Left’s Super State Strategy. It’s important to understand that strategy, get on their list and watch that space. Let’s not stop there. Let’s help move people around a bit so we can get our best possible Senate candidates. Let’s write Presidential candidate Beto O’Rourke and beseech him to run against Republican John Cornyn for the Texas Senate seat in 2020. Use the ‘other’ field in Beto’s form to try and nudge him and his staff in that direction. As time goes on, we may want to try the same persuasion with Montana Democratic Governor Steve Bullock, who could unseat Republican Senator Steve Daines by taking on this race rather than running for President. |
3) Concentrate Your State Legislative Efforts on Virginia | |
 | There are a small number of states holding elections for the state legislature in 2019. Our best shot for a flip is Virginia, and a very good way to increase our chances is to sign up with Flippable. They have picked good candidates and need your help right now. |
Why let Donald Trump guide your thoughts every day? Free yourself from Twitter torment by doing all the things we already know we need to do--- register voters, keep truth on the throne and off the scaffold, and boost good candidates who are intent on restoring our democracy.
David Harrison
Bainbridge Island, Washington
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