You Must Remember This

Dear friends,

This is a short note responding to all of the late breaking news. It is my belief that understanding of what is going on in America today is in a dead heat with misunderstanding of what is going on. Please consider these clarifications.

Biden's Debate Performance:

This missive has been pining for Joe Biden to not run for President since last year. His cognitive problems are significant. These problems should convince Joe and Jill Biden that Joe should withdraw with grace. 

The issue is not Joe Biden's showing as President in these 3 1/2 years. We have been lucky to have him. But his ability to handle the office's rigors moving forward is a non-trivial matter. We wouldn't have knowingly compromised on it with any past candidate, and we shouldn't now. Carl Bernstein just cited 15-20 cognitive episodes in the past two years. We are fortunate this came to a head now rather than in September, when it would be too late to fix.

There are only two paths for Joe Biden and they are rapidly narrowing to one. Everyone in his political world is waiting to see what the better class of polls say about their presidential choice once the polling sample is entirely focused on post-debate respondents. They are especially interested in swing states, and monumentally interested in the parts of the Northern blue wall (Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania) which we lost in 2016. won in 2020 and must win in 2024. 

If Joe's numbers are better than expected, he can continue to run (Early results have not been encouraging). If they aren't, a combination of friends, large donors and major elected officials will find a way out for him. Partisans watching the news every day to see who will call for him to withdraw is nonsensical. These are the most influential people who would file their views publicly, that being counterproductive.

The polling for alternative candidates is encouraging. Kamala Harris' strong performance among independents and women is a singular surprise. This election is not even close to over. There is no meaningful analog to the changing of Democratic candidates in the 1968 presidential race, and every reason to believe that Democratic candidates would avoid a bloodbath.

The Court 

With their establishment of a wide range of criminal immunity for the official acts of the President, the Supreme Court has put to final rest their previous claim that they rely on "textualism". The level of immunity they provided is stunning and should be mourned.

However, the post-ruling analyses have left out another part of the ruling. In the April arguments before the court, Justice Amy Coney Barrett raised these three hypotheticals with Trump's lawyer. He agreed that the described behavior would be a private act of the President if Judge Chutkan finds that it took place. The rejection of any claim that Trump would have been carrying out official duties provides an excellent opening for Jack Smith. Barrett's hypotheticals:

The petitioner turned to a private attorney who was willing to spread knowingly false claims of election fraud to spearhead his challenges to the election results.

The petitioner conspired with another private attorney who caused the filing in court of a verification signed by petitioner that contain false allegations to support a challenge.

Three private actors—two attorneys, including those mentioned above, and a political consultant—helped implement a plan to submit fraudulent slates of presidential electors to obstruct the certification proceeding. A petitioner and a co-conspirator attorney directed that effort.

Jack Smith has been prepared all along for the court to reject immunity for private actions such as these. He is ready to go with evidentiary hearings in front of US District Court Tanya Chutkan late summer and fall which will determine which of the charges will stand, which are predicted to be well over half. Chutkan has already indicated that the fact that Trump will be campaigning is not material to her. This will keep Trump's election fraud in the news all through the campaign. Even Trump's appeal of Chutkan's rulings to the Supreme Court will work to our electoral advantage.

This is a fluid situation. Let's keep on doing our work.

David Harrison
Bainbridge Island, Washington