#66: It’s Time to Get the Truth Off of the Scaffold

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Joe Biden has been around for a long time. When he says Donald Trump’s presidency is an aberration, his judgement is based upon consideration of fifty years of American politics and governance. Trump’s candidacy might not even been successful if the election had been held on November 5 or 7, 2016 and certainly would not have been successful except for 1) Comey’s announcement; 2) multiple levels of Russian interference; 3) the cover-up of Trump payoffs by Michael Cohen; and 4) various levels of malfeasance which we will find out more about as time goes on.

So, Trump’s presidency is an aberration, in the sense that his election did not reflect any profound ongoing change in the views of the American voter. In fact, two years later, a lot of independent voters who had boosted Trump helped the resistance flip 40 house seats. We also added votes from millions of voters aged 18-30 who historically had been less likely to vote in midterm elections.

In one way, identifying something as aberrant behavior is a positive signal. It tells us that it is easier to reverse present awful conditions than it would be if there was some long term massive negative switch in voter preferences. It’s clear it isn’t long term, since we already shifted voter behavior two years later. On the other hand, feeling reassured because an election result is anomalous is a trap. We could end up waiting for the non-aberrant behavior to emerge, and be less focused on the business to which we must attend.

We aren’t going to lose focus. We’re going to continue treating this Presidential election with great confidence, but with caution. Given a choice between doing less and doing more to guarantee the right outcome, we will do more, and as the election approaches, we will do much, much more. Every day, we will refuse to accept this assault upon our country. The Constitution is threatened just as much as if enemy combatants just landed on the Florida panhandle, instead of Donald Trump having a rally there. 

Even though Donald Trump is not a trend setter, there is one bit of malfeasance and malfunction that threatens to be longer lasting. He did not invent prevarication in American politics, but he has put the truth on the scaffold so persistently and unabashedly that we’re going to have a difficult time removing it. As the protestant hymn reminds, if truth is on the scaffold, then wrong will be on the throne.

What to do? Luckily we have the Annenberg Center’s unparalleled and even-handed fact check capacity. They offer the suspecting and unsuspecting soul an equal chance to sign up for their weekly newsletter. Any person who has been thinking that Trump’s offenses against the truth are modest should read the Fact Check article outlining 17 Trump lies in 17 hours, a huge bolt of wool being pulled over our eyes. The broadcast media needs improvement on their own fact checking, but lately the national networks, CNN and (once a year) Fox have been including the correction of the Trump untruth in the same broadcast segment as the untruth, which is critical. The broadcasters look for cover where they can. They were relieved when Presidential adviser Larry Kudlow admitted that tariffs bring economic pain to producers and consumers. The media could thus quote Kudlow rather than correcting Trump on their own.

Of course, there are other ways to give truth a new ascendancy. We can all subscribe to a newspaper which takes its role seriously. (Digital subscriptions of the New York Times have increased sharply since Trump was elected.) We can politely refuse to let the false claims of others pass us by. We can make certain we are using reliable information ourselves. Newspaper op-eds which we often favor are discussion-starters, opinion pieces striving for attention, and rarely provide immutable truths. Rachel Maddow is indispensable, but nevertheless she and we are called upon to sort out which of her charges are meant for further investigation, and which are already surrounded by considerable evidence. Both categories are important, but the former requires a process where we continue to follow the issue as it unfolds. On a different front, Michael Moore does not have inside information on who is going to be elected in 2020, nor does billionaire Mark Cuban. As Trump has demonstrated over and over, having a Twitter account does not infuse the tweeter with wisdom.

Of all the places where Trump’s daily dance with the truth matters, the legislative process is most consequential, since lies can lead to people being unserved who desperately need help. Trump is not playing just some silly little game. A lie about tariffs can put a company out of business. A lie about protection from pre-existing conditions can lead to lack of health care coverage and a person’s death. Republican Senators have a bad habit of failing to correct Trump even when his statements are patently false. Iowa Senator Chuck Grassley made an exception this week. He said that Trump does not understand tariffs and their impact on farmers. He stressed that telling him face to face doesn’t seem to help. Even after the pointed corrections of Grassley and others, Trump tweeted that it is the Chinese paying the tariffs, rather than US companies and the US consumer.

In the midst of the legislative process, Donald Trump makes up stories. This is not unintentional, and it is morally bankrupt. Here are three specific stories that he tells, how they foul the legislative process, and what we can do now to respond:

1) Make Certain Disaster Aid Meets the Needs of Puerto Ricans
	Donald Trump has created a smoke screen regarding Puerto Rico. He has insisted publicly and repeatedly that the United States has spent $96 billion to rebuild the devastated island, restoring electricity, rebuilding infrastructure, and responding to the needs of those left under-housed. The correct number as he knows is that the government has signed $22 billion in binding agreements, of which $14 billion has been spent. $96 billion turns out to be one estimate of what may be needed over the next two decades.  Trump has blocked recovery aid for Midwestern floods because the House included funding for Puerto Rico, including an emergency increase in food stamps, EPA help to fix water systems, housing funds, and a plan to rebuild public buildings. The House Democratic measure that included Puerto Rico aid passed nonetheless, gaining 50 votes from Republican members of Congress. Republican Senators are getting uneasy standing in the way of disaster relief and you can help them feel even more uncomfortable. Let’s go in the side door again, calling their district offices to insist these Senators reject Trump’s blatant untruths about Puerto Rico and approve a Senate bill that responds to Puerto Rican needs. We will go with six Senators who continue to contort themselves, trying to fulfill their oath of office and keep Trump from being angry with them.      Ben Sasse of Nebraska: (402) 550-8040      Lisa Murkowski of Alaska: (907) 271-3735      Susan Collins of Maine: (207) 780-3575      Marco Rubio of Florida: (305) 418-8553      Thom Tillis of Nebraska: (704) 509-9087      Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania: (215) 241-1090
2) Block the Untruths About Pre-Existing Conditions
	Donald Trump continues to say that Republican actions on health care protect people with pre-existing conditions. This is not true.  As was the case in the midterm elections, Republican perfidy on pre-existing conditions put them at political risk. Republicans in the House were especially annoyed when Nancy Pelosi gave them the opportunity to go on the record in favor of the Protecting Americans with Pre-Existing Conditions Act, H.R. 986. Only four (Sensenbrenner of Wisconsin, Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania, Smith of New Jersey and Katko of New York) voted yes. It’s time to email one or more of the Republicans in your state’s House delegation and say this---- Now that you passed up H.R. 986, how do you intend to demonstrate that you are protecting Americans with pre-existing conditions?
3) Stand Behind the Facts on Immigration Reform
	Donald Trump is about to announce his proposed immigration “reform” legislative package, put together by Jared Kushner. Its provisions are grouped around wall building and eliminating immigration preferences for family members of citizens, thus blocking the path that the Trumps and the Kushners (and millions of the rest of us) followed in order to come to America. In seeking a “merit” approach, Trump continues to ignore or misrepresent the role that immigrants have played in building our country.  There are no provisions in the package to protect Dreamers. This is a clear signal for every one of us to support the largest youth-led Dreamer-supporting immigration reform organization in the country, United We Dream.

The polls are looking good. We may be able to keep the field of Democratic presidential candidates to under 30 candidates! Then we can sort them out one by one and win back the presidency of the United States.

David Harrison
Bainbridge Island, Washington

#43: How We Stop Awful Things from Happening

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No one said for even a minute that this was easy. Just remember that when commentators say that “Trump still has his base,” that amounts to just a bit more than a third of American voters. If you keep working on independents, and you keep on making certain that those seeking a new direction REGISTER and VOTE in November, this particular election will absolutely be a blue wave, and it will provide the best sort of brake on some of the worst things that this totally bizarre American president can do.

Maybe when you are awash in despair you remember Elizabeth Kubler-Ross’ path breaking “On Death and Dying.” You are recalling her five stages of response to terminal illness: denial, anger, bargaining, depression and acceptance. Now feel the cool breeze as you realize the Trump stages are entirely different. Here's what you may have been thinking:

1. Disbelief (November 2016) There was a tiny chance of that happening, of the “firewall” being breached, even with the last-minute Comey announcement. But I still can’t believe he is the President of our country. The hurt I feel for America is overwhelming.
2. Befuddlement What do I even do about what I am hearing? I am going to have to sort his out, get some equilibrium. I am going to be a part of the resistance and not let this bring me down.
3. Organization There is Indivisible, and Swing Left, and there are local independent groups, and special elections, and fighting for health care, and against the tax cut and for refugees and against environmental destruction. There are ways to weigh in every week. I believe that we are starting to get some traction. I know this matters. Even though this distresses me and I must find time away from it, I am fully dedicated to resisting.
4. Traction (the present) Before, I was pleased that we all worked together to save the Affordable Care Act, even though I know that Trump still is wounding it regularly. I am pleased that there are still many millions of people receiving health care who otherwise would not be if the resistance had not acted. Now, refugee and immigrant parents are going to be reunited with their children. Whatever Trump says or does next, this is a huge victory for the resistance. We can build on this and work tirelessly all summer and early fall for a blue wave.
5. Celebration On the morning of November 7, 2018, I feel as hopeful and renewed as in any time I remember. I know there are as many as two more years of Donald Trump, but we now have demonstrated with the election results that we can change the course of history. In no way are we done, but our work is paying off.

What could keep us from completing these five steps now that we are so far along? We could be self-indulgent. We could forget to attend to the business at hand while trading snarky comments about Ivanka or trying to figure out Melania Trump’s jacket. Worse, we could fall into a pattern of debating whether it is okay to harass someone while they are having a sandwich at a restaurant, which can be very easily resolved because it isn’t okay. Whatever moral outrage you might feel justified in expressing to Sarah Huckabee Sanders or other Trump minions, it is a narcissistic, politically self-defeating act. We wouldn’t want any of those distractions to define our next few months, would we?

Instead, we must remember and emphasize the four issues that will be providing us the traction and 
getting us the celebration. And we must focus on why each of them offer us a considerable political advantage, and work from now to November 6 to keep it that way.

Health care is a matter of reminding everyone that the “Pottery Barn” rule is now formally in play. Trump and his supplicants broke the Affordable Care Act, and they don’t plan to fix it. Independent voters will vote against them for this alone. We have skyrocketing premiums and fewer choices. Most important to voters, we are moving toward the point that the remaining elements of the ACA are in such a shambles that the treasured coverage for pre-existing conditions will diminish. 

The new tax law is the second key issue. On the personal income side, 80% of the benefits went to the wealthiest 1%. The American taxpayer so far is not “seeing” the benefits of Congress borrowing money from our children and grandchildren to pay for the cuts. Polls show the law is viewed unfavorably, taking away what Republicans hoped would be a fall campaign strategy. Moreover, as predicted, the greatest use of the corporate tax cuts has not been for wage increases or new investment in plants and equipment. It has been for corporate stock buybacks. 

The third issue is immigration, which sadly is more advantageous to us as a political issue than it otherwise would be because it will take until fall just to get the 2,500 children back to their parents. 67% of Americans were against the separation in the first place. Don’t count out the possibility of Trump working with Stephen Miller on some more “zero tolerance” and incarcerating undocumented border crossers or even asylum-seekers and their children in camps at military bases. Trump is also making sounds about closing the government on October 1 if he doesn’t get the wall. Congress would be under enormous pressure from voters to pass a bi-partisan bill to keep the government open.

Fourth, we will remain attentive to whatever indictments Robert Mueller will seek this summer.

These four issues are all we need to take back at least a score more seats in the House than the 24 we need. And the Senate is in play. The newest NBC/Marist poll has Bill Nelson four points ahead of Rick Scott in Florida. In Arizona, Democrat Kyrsten Sinema is polling more than 10 points better than each of her possible three opponents.

Let’s not let the sideshows created by the daily tweets distract us from staying with the biggest show, the issues that will decide this election. Maybe you yourself can’t believe that any independent voter could countenance Trump, given his indifference to things like, say, the Constitution, but you don’t want to take that for granted. Independent voters (especially women) are turning away from Trump, but they need all the encouragement and evidence we can provide, and the above four issues will tell the tale. These same four issues will motivate the new voters we can convince to register. Finally, they will help us bring back the voters who maddeningly and dishearteningly did not cast a ballot in 2016.

From this point forward, our opportunities to comment on pending legislation will be fewer, and our three things to do will be almost entirely related to the November elections. The consequences of resisters failing to pick a favorite Congressional race in which to engage are too painful to describe on the pages of this missive. Here are three things we all can do today.

1) Send Postcards to Voters Every Week
	20,000 of us are already participating in Postcards to Voters, an innovative way to break through seemingly impenetrable barriers and reach voters who live in swing districts and who thus hold our country’s future in their hands. Postcards to Voters will provide your small group of advocates a list of voter addresses in selected Congressional districts. You add the artwork, personalized message and food for thought. You know that you can express yourself in such a way that your customized missives will be noticed by the recipients. It’s a great thing to do over coffee with friends.
2) Single Out Phil Bredesen
	A year ago, it seemed hopeless to even think about trying to take control of the Senate, because 26 of the 35 seats being contested are already being held by Democrats. Additionally, a number of these Democratic seats (Montana, West Virginia, Missouri, North Dakota, Indiana) are in states where the Russia-aided Trump beat Clinton in 2016. Now, there are glimmers. Jon Tester in Montana and Joe Manchin in West Virginia are polling well.  As noted above, there is an excellent chance that Democrats will take back the Arizona seat now held by sort-of-Republican Jeff Flake. All of this means that eyes are turning to Tennessee, where Republican Senator Bob Corker is not running, and where former Democratic governor Phil Bredesen has a narrow lead in the polls. This is becoming another excellent chance to pick up a seat. True as it is that all of these campaigns have big budgets and money is pouring into Tennessee, it would be a great week for you to do some pouring yourself. Give up your coffee for a week if you need to and help perk up Tennessee for Phil Bredesen. Here’s where to find the click to donate.
3) Promote Online Voter Registration
	Wherever you go, you can view people intently focused on their cell phones. There are any number of things that are easier to do now that the digital universe has arrived, and some of those things are well worth doing, such as registering to vote! Here, certainties come into play. You can be assured that the effort to take back the Congress depends hugely on the number of people who vote, which itself depends on the number of new voters register. In some states, as many as 2/3 of the new registrants will be part of the blue wave. Further, most states have online registration. Wouldn’t it be easy for you to do a Facebook post or a tweet or an email providing a link to Rock the Vote? Rock the Vote is there to help you. There will be as many as a dozen swing districts that end up getting decided by turnout from newly registered voters. That seems motivating.

The little things do rankle. During a recent public Congressional Medal of Honor ceremony, Donald Trump told an 89-year-old widow of a World War II war hero that he hoped she had voted for him. Of course, this was supposed to be a “joke”. No one is laughing, Donald Trump. You are dishonoring your office and our country. We aim to take it back.

David Harrison
Bainbridge Island, Washington

#27: Virginia Results Reveal How We Will Take Back the House

Thank you for continuing to share these messages with your friends, if you are not already on our mailing list, please click here to be added to our list. You can also follow me on Facebook. The more people we can reach, the more we contribute to this growing movement. We share these posts on our blog, A Path Forward to November 3, 2020, every two weeks, which means there will be a total of 100 missives before the Presidential election of 2020, in which our country will select a whole new course.

Unfortunately, it isn’t just the same thing week after week. The damage is considerable, cumulative and growing. What seemed at one time to be strong examples of Donald Trump’s unfitness for the presidency (hanging up on the Australian prime minister, giving a political speech at the Boy Scout Jamboree) are now tame.

The new offenses against all senses are much worse. Putin is believed and admired, and the central elements of our democracy thus are actively besmirched. John McCain couldn’t have been more pointed: “There’s nothing America First: about taking the word of a KGB colonel over that of the American intelligence community. Vladimir Putin does not have America’s interests at heart. To believe otherwise is not only naïve but places our national security at risk.”

Our country is living a nightmare. And unbelievably, right now the most helpful recent rescuer is the very white knight himself, Steve Bannon, who actively seeks to tear the Republican Party in two. Bannon’s war on Republicanism strengthens our already excellent opportunity to take back the House of Representatives and provides a new small, but growing chance for an even greater prize -- the United States Senate.

We must not get ahead of ourselves. What is before us is a year of relentless focus on the elections that will take place on November 6, 2018, taking full advantage of the blueprint that just emerged in Virginia. As we proceed, let’s incorporate a measure of caution. So far, we are riding on Trump’s weaknesses and not on our own strengths. We can be reactive now, but we must ultimately gain greater clarity, cohesion and leadership. This will emerge. In the meantime, as we defend against the worst actions of a bizarre presidency, we will remember one thing more. Consuming our friends’ undeniably clever snarky posts and bits about Trump may be energizing, but they are no substitute for acting on issues and engaging in specific campaigns. We already know likes and re-tweets in and of themselves do not represent political action.

The very good news is that the story of next year is already partly written. Especially with Bannon out there trashing Republican Senators, it is going to be very difficult for Trump to reverse the dominant narrative where his unpopularity grows, and his prevarications pile up. The Virginia election results demonstrated the deterioration of his support from suburban women. Notably, it also revealed an enthusiasm boost borne out of the resistance. 450,000 more Virginians came to the polls to elect Northam over Gillespie than voted in the 2013 gubernatorial election.

The Virginia results have everything to do with how we can most certainly take back the House in 2018 and how we may even put the Senate into play. Off-year elections like the one next November almost always result in a push back against the party in power. When that same party is also fighting among themselves, their enthusiasm and participation wanes. In this context, changing the minds of voters is splendid, but even greater success lies in motivating and energizing those who already are disturbed about Trump. If they can feel our momentum and vote in droves, taking back 45 seats in the House is not out of the question. The House will then stand as a huge barrier to the diminishment of our democracy.

The reason why Republicans in both the House and Senate are fully committed to passing any tax bill is that they are searching for anything that could even partially inoculate them against a Democratic takeover of the House. The provisions in the House and Senate versions of the tax bill reveal what they want most now, so they can celebrate the holidays later: significant reductions in corporate taxes; special provisions that reduce tax exposure of those with very considerable assets; and tax cuts that provide a meaningful income tax reduction for most middle income and upper income taxpayers. In all three cases these proposals further exacerbate wealth maldistribution in America. It is a foregone conclusion that as much as 80% of the benefits to individuals will go to the top 5% of taxpayers.

The reduction in the corporate tax rate is intended to create comparable rates with our foreign economic competitors, but there is no guiding provision that will incentivize creation of family wage jobs. Special provisions include eliminating the estate tax in the House or sharply reducing it in the Senate, with leadership using the tax exposure of 50 farms a year to provide cover for a tax break for those with hundreds of millions of dollars of assets. Finally, even the rate reductions themselves have disproportionate value to high income taxpayers. If you provide a 7% reduction to a middle-income family which pays $10,000 a year, you are sending them an additional $700. If you provide a lower reduction of 5% to an upper income family which pays $200,000 a year, you are sending them $10,000.

What to do? How does one sort out individual actions? Let’s choose actions that push back against the unfortunate Republican tendency to select for special gilding things that are already gilded.

1) Say No on the Elimination of Estate Taxes
	For married couples, the federal estate tax comes into play when their assets upon passing are more than $11 million. Estate planning involves numerous legal ways to decrease this exposure, including making annual gifts to one’s children and grandchildren. Even though by far the greatest amount of these taxes are paid by those with assets over $200 million, its repeal is always on the Republican wish list. The current Senate proposal lifts the size of taxable estates to $22 million rather than eliminating the tax, an effort to retain the vote of Maine Senator Susan Collins on the overall bill. This battle has seen the surprising emergence of another Republican Senator, not at all known for taking on such disputes. This is Senator Mike Rounds of South Dakota. He may start to bend under pressure, but see what you can do to reinforce his better sensibilities. He is unused to hearing from people across America. Call and tell his staff at 202- 224-5842 that he should stand his ground on estate taxes. Write legislative director Gregg Rickman at Gregg_Rickman@rounds.senate.gov. Or if you have a Republican Senator, write him or her and extend your thinking on this matter.
2) Protect the Affordable Care Act One More Time
	In a late breaking element, Mitch McConnell is signaling his interest in including in the tax bill a repeal of the individual coverage requirement mandate of the Affordable Care Act. Republicans need more “revenue” which they say could be used to shore up the tax cuts for the middle class! Apparently they couldn’t find the resources in the $1.5 trillion hole they have already created in budget over the next ten years, or the $300 billion estate tax break they have devised. The elimination of the individual mandate would kill the ACA, depriving it of, among other things, a pool of healthy insured people. The Congressional Budget Office believes that the number of insured would drop by 13 million people. Senators Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski, and John McCain have stood up for health care for Americans. Could you write and call to ask them to do it one more time? Morgan Griffin, Legislative Aide for Lisa Murkowski, Alaska  Steve Abbott, Chief of Staff for Susan Collins, Maine  David Bennett, Legislative Aide for John McCain, Arizona
3) Congressman, Step Away From Our Teacher’s Desk
	Both the House and the Senate versions of the tax bill allow corporations to deduct all sorts of expenses, but they take that opportunity away from your town’s elementary and primary school teachers. Really? We know you tax writers are bent on decreasing tax deductions, but could you leave Ms. McGillicuddy’s $250 deduction for things she buys for her classroom alone? Isn’t that behavior you want to encourage? Here’s the chance to write any Republican Senator or member of Congress from your state. Tell them that now is a perfect time to show our teachers that the sacrifices they have been making to help equip their classrooms count with you, and should count with them.

The Mueller investigation continues, and there will be more indictments. It will be reemphasized that another nation which in no way wishes us well tried to tear apart the fabric of our democracy. Whether or not the collusion that is proved will reach the President, we will see very clearly the picture of a values-deficient Trump campaign, which demonstrated that they would do anything and say anything to win. Now, in just a year we can take the first of two steps at the ballot box to make it right.

David Harrison
Bainbridge Island, Washington

#23: We Have Never Had Any Choice But to Take Back the House

EMERGENCY ALERT: We interrupt this post that is focused on other dangers and threats. There is an emerging threat that the Graham-Cassidy effort to repeal the Affordable Care Act will be brought to the Senate floor this week. Please email these Senators and beseech them not to play along on this all new scheme to take health care away from the Americans who most need it: 

• Morgan Griffin, Legislative Aide for Lisa Murkowski, Alaska 
  Steve Abbott, Chief of Staff for Susan Collins, Maine 
  David Bennett, Legislative Aide for John McCain, Arizona 
  Rachel Green, Legislative Aide for Dean Heller, Nevada

Thank you for continuing to share these messages with your friends, if you are not already on our mailing list, please click here to be added to our list. You can also follow me on Facebook. The more people we can reach, the more we contribute to this growing movement. We share these posts on our blog, A Path Forward to November 3, 2020, every two weeks, which means there will be a total of 100 missives before the Presidential election of 2020, in which our country will select a whole new course.

It’s time to collect ourselves as we (and so many others) continue this largely successful effort to curb the countless excesses of Donald Trump, and thus protect our nation. It is also the time to make certain our fervor does not dissipate.

We all have done better in the past 10 months than we might have expected. The Affordable Care Act is wounded but it stands. The wall is unbuilt, proposed State Department cuts have been pushed back, Russia has been sanctioned and Planned Parenthood is funded. On the other end of the ledger, a new Supreme Court Justice has been confirmed, executive orders have diminished the environment, and the President has regularly contributed to international instability. Ahead of us is a major battle over taxation, and the extent to which tax “reform” exacerbates or alleviates huge wealth disparities in our country.

We never have had any choice but to take back the House in November of 2018, and the chances are very good that we will accomplish that goal. More moderate Republican members of Congress like Charlie Dent of Pennsylvania and Dave Reichert of Washington have announced they are not seeking reelection, making their swing districts far more vulnerable for Democratic takeover. We need 24 seats to take back control of the House, and could get more than 40.

The key word is could. First, there is no danger that Donald Trump is going to significantly increase his voter approval. The John Kelly molded man seeking to look presidential will return to the true mold each time Kelly looks the other way. The unfettered, uninformed and unprincipled Trump is the essence of the man.

So that may mean that the biggest impediment to taking back the House is us. Pogo said “We have met the enemy and they are us.” We must defend against three ways we could take ourselves down. We could pull defeat out of the jaws of victory in the fall of 2018 with no cohesion, or no leaders, or no ideas.

The first test is how people who previously Sanders and Clinton work together. So far, the signs are encouraging. Neither Sanders nor Clinton is going to be the 2020 nominee, and their strongest supporters know that already, which is freeing. There will be meaningful Democratic policy/political differences in scores of Congressional primaries, but those can strengthen us. Additionally, the fears that “identity politics” will make us less than our collective sum are not founded. Passion fuels us. By November of 2018, we need to display unity, not uniformity.

Who will lead us is the bigger question. Did we not realize during the reign of Harry Reid that having the Senate Minority Leader as our spokesperson on the evening news will inevitably become a problem? Good minority leaders are tacticians. They relentlessly attend to the key concerns of each Democratic Senator. They automatically illuminate their political sides. The clear articulation of our aspirations and agenda is not the prime gift of either Chuck Schumer or Nancy Pelosi. Hopefully, this need will start to get filled when various presidential aspirants start to appear. The New York Times has given its sought after attention to eight candidates.  

And, of course, we must and will become sharper about the why, the reasons why Americans should select our candidates rather than those allied to Trump. Some of these more refined positions will come out of Democratic primary races. These will be especially pointed in their disputes over international trade, within a party that houses both protectionists and free traders. The policy focus which will not emerge naturally is the interwoven series of initiatives that will respond anew to uneven economic opportunity in America’s regions. Actually, Democrats have been addressing these for some time, but it is not clear the public has been aware of that. It is broken and must be fixed.

All together, we give the resistance to Trump unbounded energy. That energy will drive and improve the responses to the three above challenges of cohesion, leadership and ideas.

If our indispensable weekly attention to these matters is waning, a little, then we will be less likely to gain the outcome we seek. Here are three things we personally can do to sharpen our engagement:

1) Please, please, please pick your Congressional campaign
	Campaigns are won or lost from their inception, not on the day the results are posted. We all felt Trump-generated despair from the moment he got the sufficient Comey-boost to gain election. We looked for every opportunity to fully and genuinely resist. Even if you have never picked a campaign in the past, it is time to pick one now. Read the newspaper to decide which, if any, Congressional races near you are going to be heavily contested. There will be 60 or so at least somewhat competitive races so you are going to find one, even if you have to consider a neighboring state. Use the excellent online resources which are available to help you sort things out. These include Indivisible and Swing Left either of which can help you sort out targeted races. Even though they have been excruciatingly absent from the organizing side of the picture, get on the e-mailing list of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. Also make it a point to keep tabs on your state Democratic party. After you pick your race, go see the candidate or one of her or his aides if they are within driving distance. If you don’t live in their district, join an Indivisible cell or other organizing group that will “adopt” the candidate. If such a group doesn’t already exist, organize it yourself. Do not be discouraged if there already five or six candidates indicating their interest. Pick the one who you find compelling. Even if your candidate isn’t the one moving forward, you will be adding to our collective strength.
2) Where you have special skills, advance them.
	Take an inventory of your skills. Start by making yourself good at door-to-door work. Eventually every campaign finds these resources essential, not just as a tool for swaying voters but even more as a tool to make certain we identify who is with us so we can get them to the polls. In 2016 we did not get the voter turnout we hoped for in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. That should provide some motivation. What other skills do you have? Can you raise money? Could you give money, even in the form of a monthly pledge? Organize events? Could you participate in or lead a letter writing campaign, or organize social media? Intermediaries are cropping up to make certain people with high-demand skills get found. Tech for Campaigns is an organization that is recruiting and deploying all manner of technology-savvy people.
3) Start your own voter registration campaign
	Even if you live in an enclave where people are red hot about their politics, you are surrounded by people who aren’t registered to vote. Or you know some people in other places who haven’t registered. They are young and haven’t got into the voting habit, or they have moved, or maybe they are disenchanted with the present situation. (How could that possibly be the case?) How about figuring out how to do a voter registration drive this winter and spring among high school seniors who are just turning 18.  Or, emphasize the 35 states who offer online voter registration. Scroll down on this site, find the link to online registration in your target state, and send the link to people you suspect have yet to register.

There will always be countless issues on which we must engage, and new Trumpian horrors to confront. Trump says that in all of his bullying, his disregard for even the most basic of truths, and his relentless promotion of himself and his properties, he is being “presidential” in a “modern” way. Could you imagine anything further from the truth than that? Or anything more motivating for all of us.

We continue to seek the day that we can say that it is a former President that said such a thing. It is a good time to re-assess how each of us is doing, and to determine and do what is necessary.

David Harrison
Bainbridge Island, Washington

#19: A Republic If You Can Keep It

Thank you for continuing to share these messages with your friends, if you are not already on our mailing list, please click here to be added to our list. You can also follow me on Facebook. The more people we can reach, the more we contribute to this growing movement. We share these posts on our blog, A Path Forward to November 3, 2020, every two weeks, which means there will be a total of 100 missives before the Presidential election of 2020, in which our country will select a whole new course.

During the Constitutional Convention, Benjamin Franklin was approached by a citizen in a Philadelphia square outside the closed meetings. The woman said “Well, Doctor, what do we have, a republic or a monarchy?” And Dr. Franklin said, “A republic, if you can keep it.”

And so, we have tended for 230 years to our collective commitment to self-determination and the freedoms it generates. As a country, we have done some awful things and harbored searing injustices, but we have kept the republic. As much as there is a beacon anywhere for long-lasting democracy, we represent that beacon, however great its disrepair. We will not let that light dim through the actions of a man who has not been and will not be fit to be president.

When he swore an oath, we swore one too. His is not going well. Tweeting away on health care, he has displayed no understanding of either the system he wants to replace or what would come next. Worse, he has no need nor desire to understand these things. He said recently, “They are always talking about death. Obamacare is death”. In his public discourse, he is one short step away from “So’s your old man.”

In Washington, he has been found out by his own staff and cabinet heads, who know he wants sycophants. The Congress is about to pass sanctions on Russia that take us in the opposite direction from the Putin political embrace for which Trump had been yearning. Things are getting harder and harder for him as weeks go by. He watches Fox & Friends for their creative interpretation of the world, and tweets the night away. With the Mueller investigation and the Trumpian raging at Jeff Sessions, it is difficult to see his performance or voter approval improving.

Our oath is going well. Under these circumstances it is hard to take much joy in that, but the preliminary results are in. All together we have created a movement that will be sustainable throughout the four or fewer years of the Trump presidency. Trump’s support from independents has deteriorated. As Gallup notes, the average presidential approval rating by independents is 53%. Trump’s has fallen to 36%. Further, the news story about how his Republican base is undaunted is misleading. Support has lessened, and fewer than 30% of those polled are identifying as Republican in the first place.

Currently, it is not a problem that ours is a movement that has just a little coordination, innumerable priorities, no single leader, and an indistinct affirmative agenda. Certainly, all those things will have to change over time. For now, it is a blessing that we are sprawling and spirited and that we are not a Democratic Party project. Indivisible has been nearly indispensable, but there are countless initiatives and an unabated fervor. If you have remained fervent yourself, please keep that up.

If you have found your fervency flagging a little bit over time, or you are at least a little less focused that you had been, you may be forgetting how much you matter. Sorry to say, but the only way this works is that we all must remain relentless. For motivation, how about reminding yourself how you felt the morning after the election? If you have stopped being a participant and started being a spectator instead, come back right now, please.

The successful motion to proceed to the amendment process does not mean that the Senate will repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act, because they still don’t have 50 votes behind any course of action. Their first two major actions failed 57-43 (comprehensive bill) and 55-45 (repeal without replace). However, as described in missive #18, many Republican Senators are still thinking that it will be better for them over time if they pass a deeply unpopular bill to repeal and replace than if they refuse to do so. The national outpouring, the calls and emails and notes that you and your neighbors have sent, has already placed them in a deep quandary. Here are three things right now that will make it deeper:

1)Targeting State Fiscal Issues
	Mitch McConnell is going to use the upcoming amendment process to gauge how he can get to 50 votes. He has been inducing individual senators, trying to give them political “cover” by spending more on their key concerns, like the opioid crisis (Shelley Moore Capito of West Virginia) or provider subsidies in areas with higher cost insurance (Lisa Murkowski of Alaska). The battle over extended Medicaid coverage is the most painful for Senators like Capito, Rob Portman of Ohio, and Dean Heller of Nevada. Their states accepted the Medicaid deal in the Alternative Care Act and do not want to turn back, since it would throw as many as hundreds of thousands of their constituents off their insurance. These Senators know what McConnell is going to end up with will be a bad fiscal deal for their states, because the revenues those states receive to cover low income citizens will be capped, and the expenditures will not be. Almost all states face constitutional requirements that their budgets be balanced annually. When revenues go down, throwing people off Medicaid is always a leading alternative. The current proposal would cost states $218 billion in federal support between 2020 and 2029. Dean Heller’s own Republican Governor Bryan Sandoval hates these cuts a lot. And, Heller is up for reelection in 2018. Let’s concentrate our voices here. As you know, send Dean Heller emails and do phone calls that are your own words. Something like “You know that with this one vote you would do fiscal harm to this state for decades.” Here’s three Heller calls to make or emails to write: Legislative Assistant (for health care) Rachel Green rachel_green@heller.senate.gov (202) 224-6244 Legislative Director Sarah Paul sarah_paul@heller.senate.gov (202) 226-6244 Chief of Staff Mac Abrams mac_abrams@heller.senate.gov (202) 226-6244
2) Reinforcing Lisa Murkowski’s Planned Parenthood Defense
	Lisa Murkowski of Alaska joined Susan Collins of Maine as the two Republican Senators who voted against proceeding with consideration of the bill. One of their primary motivations is protecting Planned Parenthood, whose federal funding for broader women’s health services would be cut to zero. They have received some good news from the Senate parliamentarian, who has ruled that a provision to Planned Parenthood is not subject to the budget reconciliation process and therefore would require 60 votes to cut off debate, not 51. Murkowski can and will use this for leverage, but her ultimate opposition to repeal and replace is not as predictable as that of Susan Collins. The quality of reproductive health care in America may depend upon her ultimate vote. Now is a wonderful time to reinforce the strong stand she has taken on this issue. Here’s who to tell: Morgan Griffin Legislative Assistant (for health care) morgan_griffin@murkowski.senate.gov 202-224-6655
3) Make a Progress Payment
	It is a possibility that the Senate will pass a bill that will be the worst piece of legislation in the past two decades. The number one idea of this bill is to enable the significant reduction in the number of people who receive health care in America. What a shameful thing this is. Let’s make a contribution to taking back the House as a declaration that this will not stand. Between now and mid-August, Congress will pass a bill to repeal and provide a “replacement”, or they will not. Let’s keep fighting for the latter outcome, but let’s keep getting ready for November 6, 2018. Giving through Swing Left’s district funds is an excellent way to give to races that are sure to count, and to stockpile money to help recruit the best challengers.

This is going to keep going on. The Trump speech to the Boy Scouts is just one more day-to-day example that this man is unmoored by any understanding of what being President requires of him. There will be some more of this, no? And, of course, we will spend the fall on Mueller disclosures and actions unless Trump fires him before then and precipitates a constitutional crisis.

And then there is the Congress, clearly and resolutely taking the opposite course from Trump on sanctioning Russia. A number of commentators have opined that this is a symbol of Congress’ heightened resolve. Since members of Congress face almost no opposition in their districts to their being harder on Russia, it might be better to eschew the praise on this front.

So, we will expect more praiseworthy actions, at least from the Senate. Even if more such blessings appear, our relentlessness will continue. This is no time to avert our gaze or lose our focus.

David Harrison
Bainbridge Island, Washington

#18: A Sordid Implicit Deal Guides Republican Senators

Thank you for continuing to share these messages with your friends, if you are not already on our mailing list, please click here to be added to our list. You can also follow me on Facebook. The more people we can reach, the more we contribute to this growing movement. We share these posts on our blog, A Path Forward to November 3, 2020, every two weeks, which means there will be a total of 100 missives before the Presidential election of 2020, in which our country will select a whole new course.

This upcoming week will be consequential, again.

It may seem like Mitch McConnell won't get a Republican health care bill through the Senate, but don't be certain about that. The reason he continues to look for a way forward with this horrible, horribly unpopular bill is that he is convinced that his party will be in worse political trouble if they don't pass it than if they do. That's counterintuitive, but it comes down to this:

If you are a Republican Senator, you can choose between 1) passing it, and having independent voters be disgusted with you at least until the 2018 midterm elections (with a hope that you will find a way to mitigate that disgust), or 2) failing to pass it and having the 30-35% of the voters who are your base be outraged at you for an even longer period of time because you promised them Obamacare repeal for seven years.

McConnell's Senators can't win elections without the base, so he will continue to look for an opening, even though the political dangers of losing the independent vote are also huge, and even though working together we will make those dangers even greater. These Senators didn't expect Trump to win and make repeal even faintly possible, and their countless votes to repeal when the Democrats held the presidency were just political theatre. They are the dog that chased the car and can't figure out what to do when it caught it.

For eight months, Republicans have wondered and wrestled about what to do about Donald Trump. What they have come up with so far is the worst sort of bargain. Nearly every Republican in Congress has decided to sign on to this deal.

They get to criticize Donald Trump for thuglike or boorish behavior or nonsensical actions. They can compose and send clever tweets to signal their disapproval, or display a raised eyebrow to the cameras. With impunity, they can mitigate the worst of his budget proposals, maintain sanctions against Russia and anticipate reports from Richard Burr's Senate Judiciary Committee and special investigator Robert Mueller on election abuse.

That is what is permitted. In return, these Senators will vote for any Cabinet nominee, however unqualified. They will maintain the known fiction that Donald Trump is able to fulfill the office of President of the United States. They will let Trump and Scott Pruitt decimate the EPA and environmental law. They will stand by as he walks away from the most important global environmental effort ever. They will say a silent prayer to Tillerson and Mattis and watch as Trump destroys our nation's relationships with long time global partners, even those whose soldiers have died in wars we asked them to join.

This is a sordid implicit deal that guides the Senate Republicans. You can be in Congress for a long time without being personally subjected to the harsh judgments of history, but these Republican Senators will not have that luxury.

This is not and will not be permanent change in the bold American democratic experiment that has continued for 230 years with all its dreams and blemishes.

The mid-year elections of 2018 will foretell the return of a democratic, Democratic presidency in 2020. At some time in the not so distant future, we will look back and wonder how Republican Senators could have put the country and the Constitution at such peril.

And the answer will be that they couldn't bear to not get a little benefit out of Trump being president. They want some judicial appointments, some reductions in budgets of least favored agencies, and some tax cuts for people who do not need tax cuts. In a time where many of them know in their hearts that the President of their party is not capable of governing, they cannot bear to put country ahead of party.

As the full implications of the Trump presidency become known, it may be that we will be seeing fewer empty actions of Republican opposition and more principled actions. Maybe this will begin now with Republicans standing in the way of the McConnell health care proposal. There are some additional Senators finding their voice. Shelley Moore Capito of West Virginia said that her commitment is to vulnerable populations and that gives her the strength to provide the deciding "no" vote. John Hoeven of North Dakota is worried about the viability of rural hospitals if the bill passes, since as much as 70% of their revenue comes from Medicaid which will suffer serious reductions in funding. Conservative Jerry Moran of Kansas is worried about decreased protection for those with pre-existing conditions.

The rules of the Senate provide motivation for these Senators to set aside these concerns and go with McConnell. This is because the tax breaks for millionaires included in the present version of the Senate bill count as budgetary savings. Under budget reconciliation rules, they would be able to "use" these savings when they seek to "reform" the tax law by giving more tax cuts to people who don't need them. Because they have these savings, they would be able to pass a tax bill with 50 votes. I am not making this up.

We hope the access to care for many millions of people will prevail, and that we will return to health care that represents what we can do with and for each other. To help these notions carry the day, we need to do these three things.

1) Widening our List of Targeted Senators
	Let's respond to the relatively recent signals of three Senators, none of which were initially thought to be a possible "no" vote. Please call their principal legislative assistant for health care. Say that the Senator was right to voice her or his concerns, and that the problems with this bill are not going to go away. At this point it is all about the volume of calls, which is not a bad thing, because it reinforces the narrative that even in red states, Senators support this bad bill at their political peril. Call and/or email these three aides: Senator Hoeven: Dan Auger, Legislative Director daniel_auger@hoeven.senate.gov 202-224-2551 Senator Moran: Kyle Christian, Legislative Assistant kyle_christian@moran.senate.gov 202-224-6521 Senator Capito: Dana Richter, Legislative Assistant dana_richter@capito.senate.gov 202-224-6472
2) Speak Out for Rural Hospitals
	The dilemma faced by rural hospitals has received little attention during the health care debate. It has been overshadowed by Medicaid cuts, a diminution of protections for people with pre-existing conditions, and attempts to redefine and thus limit essential services. The Chartis Center for Rural Health has identified over 600 rural hospitals that are at risk. The National Rural Health Association vehemently urges a no vote.   See this as an issue that many Senators have ignored. Send the article to your own two Senators to reinforce their concerns if they have any, or to seek to develop some concerns if they have none.
3) Remember Key Environmental Battles
	Because of administrative rule making authority contained in many of the major environmental laws, Trump and Scott Pruitt have been able to make some inroads in weakening environmental regulations. Now environmental organizations are getting some traction on the Obama era rule requiring monitoring of methane emissions from public lands. Three Republican Senators joined Democrats in blocking the Trump rescission of the rule. When Trump and Pruitt moved to rescind the rule by executive order they were blocked by a lawsuit filed by the Natural Resources Defense Council and others. Let's celebrate by sending the NRDC a contribution to support this critical legal work.

The resistance continues. The recent disclosures on collusion with Russia may make Republican Senators a little bolder in any principled stands on Trump. Whether or not they become bolder we will prevail in these efforts. We do not have another option.

David Harrison
Bainbridge Island, Washington