#43: How We Stop Awful Things from Happening

Thank you for continuing to share these messages with your friends, if you are not already on our mailing list, please click here to be added to our list. You can also follow me on Facebook. The more people we can reach, the more we contribute to this growing movement. We share these posts on our blog, A Path Forward to November 3, 2020, every two weeks, which means there will be a total of 100 missives before the Presidential election of 2020, in which our country will select a whole new course.

No one said for even a minute that this was easy. Just remember that when commentators say that “Trump still has his base,” that amounts to just a bit more than a third of American voters. If you keep working on independents, and you keep on making certain that those seeking a new direction REGISTER and VOTE in November, this particular election will absolutely be a blue wave, and it will provide the best sort of brake on some of the worst things that this totally bizarre American president can do.

Maybe when you are awash in despair you remember Elizabeth Kubler-Ross’ path breaking “On Death and Dying.” You are recalling her five stages of response to terminal illness: denial, anger, bargaining, depression and acceptance. Now feel the cool breeze as you realize the Trump stages are entirely different. Here's what you may have been thinking:

1. Disbelief (November 2016) There was a tiny chance of that happening, of the “firewall” being breached, even with the last-minute Comey announcement. But I still can’t believe he is the President of our country. The hurt I feel for America is overwhelming.
2. Befuddlement What do I even do about what I am hearing? I am going to have to sort his out, get some equilibrium. I am going to be a part of the resistance and not let this bring me down.
3. Organization There is Indivisible, and Swing Left, and there are local independent groups, and special elections, and fighting for health care, and against the tax cut and for refugees and against environmental destruction. There are ways to weigh in every week. I believe that we are starting to get some traction. I know this matters. Even though this distresses me and I must find time away from it, I am fully dedicated to resisting.
4. Traction (the present) Before, I was pleased that we all worked together to save the Affordable Care Act, even though I know that Trump still is wounding it regularly. I am pleased that there are still many millions of people receiving health care who otherwise would not be if the resistance had not acted. Now, refugee and immigrant parents are going to be reunited with their children. Whatever Trump says or does next, this is a huge victory for the resistance. We can build on this and work tirelessly all summer and early fall for a blue wave.
5. Celebration On the morning of November 7, 2018, I feel as hopeful and renewed as in any time I remember. I know there are as many as two more years of Donald Trump, but we now have demonstrated with the election results that we can change the course of history. In no way are we done, but our work is paying off.

What could keep us from completing these five steps now that we are so far along? We could be self-indulgent. We could forget to attend to the business at hand while trading snarky comments about Ivanka or trying to figure out Melania Trump’s jacket. Worse, we could fall into a pattern of debating whether it is okay to harass someone while they are having a sandwich at a restaurant, which can be very easily resolved because it isn’t okay. Whatever moral outrage you might feel justified in expressing to Sarah Huckabee Sanders or other Trump minions, it is a narcissistic, politically self-defeating act. We wouldn’t want any of those distractions to define our next few months, would we?

Instead, we must remember and emphasize the four issues that will be providing us the traction and 
getting us the celebration. And we must focus on why each of them offer us a considerable political advantage, and work from now to November 6 to keep it that way.

Health care is a matter of reminding everyone that the “Pottery Barn” rule is now formally in play. Trump and his supplicants broke the Affordable Care Act, and they don’t plan to fix it. Independent voters will vote against them for this alone. We have skyrocketing premiums and fewer choices. Most important to voters, we are moving toward the point that the remaining elements of the ACA are in such a shambles that the treasured coverage for pre-existing conditions will diminish. 

The new tax law is the second key issue. On the personal income side, 80% of the benefits went to the wealthiest 1%. The American taxpayer so far is not “seeing” the benefits of Congress borrowing money from our children and grandchildren to pay for the cuts. Polls show the law is viewed unfavorably, taking away what Republicans hoped would be a fall campaign strategy. Moreover, as predicted, the greatest use of the corporate tax cuts has not been for wage increases or new investment in plants and equipment. It has been for corporate stock buybacks. 

The third issue is immigration, which sadly is more advantageous to us as a political issue than it otherwise would be because it will take until fall just to get the 2,500 children back to their parents. 67% of Americans were against the separation in the first place. Don’t count out the possibility of Trump working with Stephen Miller on some more “zero tolerance” and incarcerating undocumented border crossers or even asylum-seekers and their children in camps at military bases. Trump is also making sounds about closing the government on October 1 if he doesn’t get the wall. Congress would be under enormous pressure from voters to pass a bi-partisan bill to keep the government open.

Fourth, we will remain attentive to whatever indictments Robert Mueller will seek this summer.

These four issues are all we need to take back at least a score more seats in the House than the 24 we need. And the Senate is in play. The newest NBC/Marist poll has Bill Nelson four points ahead of Rick Scott in Florida. In Arizona, Democrat Kyrsten Sinema is polling more than 10 points better than each of her possible three opponents.

Let’s not let the sideshows created by the daily tweets distract us from staying with the biggest show, the issues that will decide this election. Maybe you yourself can’t believe that any independent voter could countenance Trump, given his indifference to things like, say, the Constitution, but you don’t want to take that for granted. Independent voters (especially women) are turning away from Trump, but they need all the encouragement and evidence we can provide, and the above four issues will tell the tale. These same four issues will motivate the new voters we can convince to register. Finally, they will help us bring back the voters who maddeningly and dishearteningly did not cast a ballot in 2016.

From this point forward, our opportunities to comment on pending legislation will be fewer, and our three things to do will be almost entirely related to the November elections. The consequences of resisters failing to pick a favorite Congressional race in which to engage are too painful to describe on the pages of this missive. Here are three things we all can do today.

1) Send Postcards to Voters Every Week
	20,000 of us are already participating in Postcards to Voters, an innovative way to break through seemingly impenetrable barriers and reach voters who live in swing districts and who thus hold our country’s future in their hands. Postcards to Voters will provide your small group of advocates a list of voter addresses in selected Congressional districts. You add the artwork, personalized message and food for thought. You know that you can express yourself in such a way that your customized missives will be noticed by the recipients. It’s a great thing to do over coffee with friends.
2) Single Out Phil Bredesen
	A year ago, it seemed hopeless to even think about trying to take control of the Senate, because 26 of the 35 seats being contested are already being held by Democrats. Additionally, a number of these Democratic seats (Montana, West Virginia, Missouri, North Dakota, Indiana) are in states where the Russia-aided Trump beat Clinton in 2016. Now, there are glimmers. Jon Tester in Montana and Joe Manchin in West Virginia are polling well.  As noted above, there is an excellent chance that Democrats will take back the Arizona seat now held by sort-of-Republican Jeff Flake. All of this means that eyes are turning to Tennessee, where Republican Senator Bob Corker is not running, and where former Democratic governor Phil Bredesen has a narrow lead in the polls. This is becoming another excellent chance to pick up a seat. True as it is that all of these campaigns have big budgets and money is pouring into Tennessee, it would be a great week for you to do some pouring yourself. Give up your coffee for a week if you need to and help perk up Tennessee for Phil Bredesen. Here’s where to find the click to donate.
3) Promote Online Voter Registration
	Wherever you go, you can view people intently focused on their cell phones. There are any number of things that are easier to do now that the digital universe has arrived, and some of those things are well worth doing, such as registering to vote! Here, certainties come into play. You can be assured that the effort to take back the Congress depends hugely on the number of people who vote, which itself depends on the number of new voters register. In some states, as many as 2/3 of the new registrants will be part of the blue wave. Further, most states have online registration. Wouldn’t it be easy for you to do a Facebook post or a tweet or an email providing a link to Rock the Vote? Rock the Vote is there to help you. There will be as many as a dozen swing districts that end up getting decided by turnout from newly registered voters. That seems motivating.

The little things do rankle. During a recent public Congressional Medal of Honor ceremony, Donald Trump told an 89-year-old widow of a World War II war hero that he hoped she had voted for him. Of course, this was supposed to be a “joke”. No one is laughing, Donald Trump. You are dishonoring your office and our country. We aim to take it back.

David Harrison
Bainbridge Island, Washington

#28 The More Intense the Resistance, the Shorter the Nightmare

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There are all sorts of adjectives to use to describe this bizarre presidency. It would be disappointing enough to have a President who all the time is bragging about things that he has done, but it is monumentally disappointing to have a president who also makes up virtually all the things he brags about.

Well, at least Donald Trump is resolving the argument about American exceptionalism! For all of our country’s flaws, one otherwise might have been inclined to take some special pride from our freedoms and protections under the Bill of Rights, or our orderly transfer of power after elections. And there are other ways that our country is a world leader - just fewer with each month. Ironically, it is Syria signing the climate change agreement that leaves us alone among nations.

If Congress passes a tax bill, it is already guaranteed that it will be an awful piece of legislation. Either version will benefit the rich at the hands of the middle class, and wound people with lower incomes. Either will unnecessarily and dangerously expand the deficit. Given these findings are well documented the reason why the bill’s passage is still likely is the calculation that virtually all Republicans in Congress have made. They know the bill will be unpopular with the public, but they believe that their cause (and their re-election chances) will suffer even greater or more certain or more lasting damage if they pass nothing at all.

It’s hard to be delighted at the dilemma they are in, since they are diminishing our economic future at the same time that they are endangering their political future. Their story seems even more unseemly when you realize that they have bought into the same Republican tax orthodoxy that has failed in the past, most recently in the fiscal near collapse of Kansas. To make the bad story worse, they have done it all at the urging of their donors, who will benefit the most.

The gift just keeps on not giving. The House version wipes out education benefits for students, teachers and institutions. The Senate seeks to do whatever they can to wreck the Affordable Care Act by eliminating the individual mandate. The House version eliminates the estate tax.

The odds are high that the Senate will pass a version of the bill by early next week, feeling that they must. Mitch McConnell will bestow extra blessings to get votes. Lisa Murkowski will receive drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. Ron Johnson will get more favorable treatment for small business. James Lankford will get future promises of debt reduction. The beleaguered Susan Collins (not quite ready to flee her party, unfortunately) will be pushed by Republican leadership to decide which of her colleague’s injustices to redress, and will seek to save the estate tax, at least for estates above $20 million. That leaves three retiring deficit hawks - Bob Corker, Jeff Flake and John McCain.

As contemptuous as they have been of Trump, this is a battle the three would like to avoid. If they duck it, they will join their Republican colleagues in arguing that (overoptimistic) projected growth in the gross national product will wipe out the increases in the deficit. They are still Republicans. Other than McCain’s opposition to the “skinny” version of health care repeal, their votes against Trump have been selected or timed to be inconsequential.

There is a glimmer of hope for our opposition. It is one thing for McConnell to get votes in the Senate for the Senate bill, and yet another to get the votes in the Senate for a conference committee report or other vehicle containing additional compromises with the House. This leaves us with two reasons to generate all the activity we can.

First, we can try to create the opportunity for three Senators to do the right thing on the tax bill (or on a subsequent conference report or compromise with the House) like Murkowski, Collins and McCain did in opposing the Affordable Care Act. If this happens, the primary issue for the possible dissenting Senators (in this case Corker, McCain, Flake, Murkowski and Collins) will be that the bill hugely expands the budget deficit. Second, if we try and fail, we will still be generating strong support for our position from the general public, which will help us build for November 6, 2018, which we can make a great day in our nation’s history.

Let’s do these three things right away:

1) Make a Final Run at the Senate
	Write or call any or all of these Senators, emphasizing the argument that is most likely to sway them, if they are to be swayed at all, or which could strengthen their resolve in a dispute with the House. Bob Corker of Tennessee - He said all along he wasn’t willing to increase the deficit by a dollar. Tell him that the country’s leading economists are united that the Republican expectations of growth that will be generated by the tax bill are fanciful. He was right all along about not increasing the deficit, and they have failed to meet his test. (202) 224-3344 John McCain - Emphasize that this is a backdoor attempt to eliminate the Affordable Care Act, using the same lack of “regular order” he already deplored. David Bennett, Legislative Aide david_bennett@mccain.senate.gov (202) 224-2235 Jeff Flake - Say that the country needs him to stand behind his courageous and eloquent address about Donald Trump. (202) 224-4521 Susan Collins - Thank her for efforts on the estate tax and tell her the bill as a whole rejects the principles of fairness and equity that she stands for. Steve Abbott, Chief of Staff steve_abbott@collins.senate.gov (202) 224-2523 Lisa Murkowski - Tell her that in allowing the repeal of the individual mandate in the Affordable Care Act she will be aiding in the eventual elimination of health care protection for millions of women who she has fought so hard to defend. (202) 224-6665
2) Defend American Education
	The most inexplicable part of the bill that passed the House is its assault on students, teachers and colleges. Teachers would lose the Educational Expense Deduction of $250, though the House has been quick to save any number of business expense deductions for corporations. Students would no longer be able to deduct interest paid on student loans. Graduate students would no longer find their research assistantships tax deductible, reducing their net income by 20% or more in a generation beset by student debt. A number of private colleges and universities would have their endowments taxed, even though these funds underpin student scholarships. Write the Republican Congressmen who lives closest to you and say how disappointed you are that they have singled out education for cuts while finding multiple ways to give extra advantage to high income taxpayers. At the best, the groundswell on this issue may soften the House in its negotiation with the Senate, whose education provisions are less draconian. Even without that outcome, the response to you might help underscore the vulnerability of that member of Congress come next November.
3) Get Our Country Some Better Members of the House and Senate
	The biggest problem with the Senate and the House of Representatives is that a not inconsiderable number of people who have been elected should not be there in the first place. Some are there because Democrats let down their guard, failing to generate the enthusiasm in off year elections that is a must when you are seeking to maintain a majority. Doug Jones’s effort to beat Roy Moore is huge. On December 12, we could gain a 49th Democratic vote in the Senate. At minimum, it will significantly increase the ability of Susan Collins and others to block Trump excesses. The Alabama race is flooded with money, but it will end up being very close, since leading Republicans have abandoned Moore. Here’s where you would send a check.  There is also a way to stand right now against the House tax bill and for taking back the House next year. Among the organizations bent upon taking back the house are Indivisible, which now has 6,000 local groups. Flippable has joined the fray and is focusing in part on taking back state legislatures. Sister Districts is also focused on “down ballot” races and matches up groups of people in safe districts with a targeted race in another part of the country. With the help of the donation system Act Blue, Swing Left has become an important pipeline to support emerging candidates in the sixty Congressional districts we have the best chance of taking back. You can now split your donation equally among opponents to House members who voted for the tax bill, thus letting your electoral displeasure be direct and immediate.

And on it goes. Some people have intentionally separated themselves from Trump’s daily assault on humanity. They aren’t prepared to tell you about wildly inappropriate remarks to Navajo codebreakers, bizarre self-aggrandizing exchanges with the father of a UCLA basketball player, or even a verbal assault on Jeff Flake. That’s an understandable defense mechanism, since in the world outside Trump there is love to be sought and given, dreams to be nurtured, the environment to be stewarded, and people in need to be served.

Whatever choice is made about the distance from the battle, we must not wait too long to re-engage. The more people we have in this country who in the course of every week show that they are resisting, the shorter our country’s nightmare will be.

David Harrison
Bainbridge Island, Washington

#27: Virginia Results Reveal How We Will Take Back the House

Thank you for continuing to share these messages with your friends, if you are not already on our mailing list, please click here to be added to our list. You can also follow me on Facebook. The more people we can reach, the more we contribute to this growing movement. We share these posts on our blog, A Path Forward to November 3, 2020, every two weeks, which means there will be a total of 100 missives before the Presidential election of 2020, in which our country will select a whole new course.

Unfortunately, it isn’t just the same thing week after week. The damage is considerable, cumulative and growing. What seemed at one time to be strong examples of Donald Trump’s unfitness for the presidency (hanging up on the Australian prime minister, giving a political speech at the Boy Scout Jamboree) are now tame.

The new offenses against all senses are much worse. Putin is believed and admired, and the central elements of our democracy thus are actively besmirched. John McCain couldn’t have been more pointed: “There’s nothing America First: about taking the word of a KGB colonel over that of the American intelligence community. Vladimir Putin does not have America’s interests at heart. To believe otherwise is not only naïve but places our national security at risk.”

Our country is living a nightmare. And unbelievably, right now the most helpful recent rescuer is the very white knight himself, Steve Bannon, who actively seeks to tear the Republican Party in two. Bannon’s war on Republicanism strengthens our already excellent opportunity to take back the House of Representatives and provides a new small, but growing chance for an even greater prize -- the United States Senate.

We must not get ahead of ourselves. What is before us is a year of relentless focus on the elections that will take place on November 6, 2018, taking full advantage of the blueprint that just emerged in Virginia. As we proceed, let’s incorporate a measure of caution. So far, we are riding on Trump’s weaknesses and not on our own strengths. We can be reactive now, but we must ultimately gain greater clarity, cohesion and leadership. This will emerge. In the meantime, as we defend against the worst actions of a bizarre presidency, we will remember one thing more. Consuming our friends’ undeniably clever snarky posts and bits about Trump may be energizing, but they are no substitute for acting on issues and engaging in specific campaigns. We already know likes and re-tweets in and of themselves do not represent political action.

The very good news is that the story of next year is already partly written. Especially with Bannon out there trashing Republican Senators, it is going to be very difficult for Trump to reverse the dominant narrative where his unpopularity grows, and his prevarications pile up. The Virginia election results demonstrated the deterioration of his support from suburban women. Notably, it also revealed an enthusiasm boost borne out of the resistance. 450,000 more Virginians came to the polls to elect Northam over Gillespie than voted in the 2013 gubernatorial election.

The Virginia results have everything to do with how we can most certainly take back the House in 2018 and how we may even put the Senate into play. Off-year elections like the one next November almost always result in a push back against the party in power. When that same party is also fighting among themselves, their enthusiasm and participation wanes. In this context, changing the minds of voters is splendid, but even greater success lies in motivating and energizing those who already are disturbed about Trump. If they can feel our momentum and vote in droves, taking back 45 seats in the House is not out of the question. The House will then stand as a huge barrier to the diminishment of our democracy.

The reason why Republicans in both the House and Senate are fully committed to passing any tax bill is that they are searching for anything that could even partially inoculate them against a Democratic takeover of the House. The provisions in the House and Senate versions of the tax bill reveal what they want most now, so they can celebrate the holidays later: significant reductions in corporate taxes; special provisions that reduce tax exposure of those with very considerable assets; and tax cuts that provide a meaningful income tax reduction for most middle income and upper income taxpayers. In all three cases these proposals further exacerbate wealth maldistribution in America. It is a foregone conclusion that as much as 80% of the benefits to individuals will go to the top 5% of taxpayers.

The reduction in the corporate tax rate is intended to create comparable rates with our foreign economic competitors, but there is no guiding provision that will incentivize creation of family wage jobs. Special provisions include eliminating the estate tax in the House or sharply reducing it in the Senate, with leadership using the tax exposure of 50 farms a year to provide cover for a tax break for those with hundreds of millions of dollars of assets. Finally, even the rate reductions themselves have disproportionate value to high income taxpayers. If you provide a 7% reduction to a middle-income family which pays $10,000 a year, you are sending them an additional $700. If you provide a lower reduction of 5% to an upper income family which pays $200,000 a year, you are sending them $10,000.

What to do? How does one sort out individual actions? Let’s choose actions that push back against the unfortunate Republican tendency to select for special gilding things that are already gilded.

1) Say No on the Elimination of Estate Taxes
	For married couples, the federal estate tax comes into play when their assets upon passing are more than $11 million. Estate planning involves numerous legal ways to decrease this exposure, including making annual gifts to one’s children and grandchildren. Even though by far the greatest amount of these taxes are paid by those with assets over $200 million, its repeal is always on the Republican wish list. The current Senate proposal lifts the size of taxable estates to $22 million rather than eliminating the tax, an effort to retain the vote of Maine Senator Susan Collins on the overall bill. This battle has seen the surprising emergence of another Republican Senator, not at all known for taking on such disputes. This is Senator Mike Rounds of South Dakota. He may start to bend under pressure, but see what you can do to reinforce his better sensibilities. He is unused to hearing from people across America. Call and tell his staff at 202- 224-5842 that he should stand his ground on estate taxes. Write legislative director Gregg Rickman at Gregg_Rickman@rounds.senate.gov. Or if you have a Republican Senator, write him or her and extend your thinking on this matter.
2) Protect the Affordable Care Act One More Time
	In a late breaking element, Mitch McConnell is signaling his interest in including in the tax bill a repeal of the individual coverage requirement mandate of the Affordable Care Act. Republicans need more “revenue” which they say could be used to shore up the tax cuts for the middle class! Apparently they couldn’t find the resources in the $1.5 trillion hole they have already created in budget over the next ten years, or the $300 billion estate tax break they have devised. The elimination of the individual mandate would kill the ACA, depriving it of, among other things, a pool of healthy insured people. The Congressional Budget Office believes that the number of insured would drop by 13 million people. Senators Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski, and John McCain have stood up for health care for Americans. Could you write and call to ask them to do it one more time? Morgan Griffin, Legislative Aide for Lisa Murkowski, Alaska  Steve Abbott, Chief of Staff for Susan Collins, Maine  David Bennett, Legislative Aide for John McCain, Arizona
3) Congressman, Step Away From Our Teacher’s Desk
	Both the House and the Senate versions of the tax bill allow corporations to deduct all sorts of expenses, but they take that opportunity away from your town’s elementary and primary school teachers. Really? We know you tax writers are bent on decreasing tax deductions, but could you leave Ms. McGillicuddy’s $250 deduction for things she buys for her classroom alone? Isn’t that behavior you want to encourage? Here’s the chance to write any Republican Senator or member of Congress from your state. Tell them that now is a perfect time to show our teachers that the sacrifices they have been making to help equip their classrooms count with you, and should count with them.

The Mueller investigation continues, and there will be more indictments. It will be reemphasized that another nation which in no way wishes us well tried to tear apart the fabric of our democracy. Whether or not the collusion that is proved will reach the President, we will see very clearly the picture of a values-deficient Trump campaign, which demonstrated that they would do anything and say anything to win. Now, in just a year we can take the first of two steps at the ballot box to make it right.

David Harrison
Bainbridge Island, Washington

#26: Make Steve Bannon a Sordid Historical Footnote

Thank you for continuing to share these messages with your friends, if you are not already on our mailing list, please click here to be added to our list. You can also follow me on Facebook. The more people we can reach, the more we contribute to this growing movement. We share these posts on our blog, A Path Forward to November 3, 2020, every two weeks, which means there will be a total of 100 missives before the Presidential election of 2020, in which our country will select a whole new course.

It is familiar in fiction - the delusional ruler, alone in his castle, raging. Jesters and flatterers are summoned, but the anger is unabated. There is much scurrying about. Knights and members of the ruler’s court are summoned. Ultimately, the ruler slumbers fitfully, and…

… Donald Trump is at peace, until the tweeting begins.

This is not a good non-fictional situation, it is fair to say. As a real estate developer, Donald Trump was in a business in which certain unscrupulous practitioners use exaggeration and misrepresentation as a business practice. His world tolerated and even encouraged ritualistic adversarial exchanges as deals were considered. Before he was sworn in, none of the virtues of the best presidents had ever found any home with him, certainly not Barrack Obama’s eloquence or intellectual grounding, or FDR’s ability to lead nations through tenacity and the strength of his ideas.

So, we are left with an unsuited and thus unsuitable president, and an ongoing governmental crisis. We must remind ourselves that we will prevail and regain a new equilibrium because we have to, and because:

• We have a constitutional system for which the checks and balances on the Presidency are very real, in which the courts and Congress can and do step in. It is the Congress that is doing too little but still is protecting Robert Mueller and sanctioning Russia, and the courts that are impeding some of the worst of the executive orders.

• We have an election in just a year in which we will take back the House and gain an extra set of brakes. This will be especially helpful in fighting back against the Trump/Pruitt decimation of environmental protection. If the election were held today, we would win 40-50 seats, exceeding the 24 we need. Donald Trump’s support has deteriorated to its lowest level.

• We have Senators McCain, Flake, Collins, Murkowski, and Corker who have openly broken ranks on specific issues. Others like Lamar Alexander of Tennessee have forged bi-partisan approaches. Even though these tales of forthrightness and occasional personal political sacrifice are far too few, they are not insignificant.

The Congress will pass a tax bill this fall, because they must. Both they and Donald Trump need to say that they did this, or they will be portrayed as having had a lost year. They just got their votes to increase the deficit by $1.5 trillion over the next 10 years, which is an unusual thing to be saying about a party that has trumpeted the need for balanced budget. Unfortunately for them, Trump has made tax cut promises requiring at least three times as much deficit spending as that $1.5 trillion. In his world, he doesn’t have to recognize that these numbers don’t add up. It’s a con.

What should we be most focused on as we do our resistance work?

We must be ever-obsessed with wealth distribution in America. Since the 1982 tax bill, tax policy has reduced the progressivity of the tax code and thus contributed to the growing concentration of wealth in the top 10%. The White House has been using mathematical gymnastics to argue that it is self-evident that any tax bill will disproportionately benefit the very rich, because they pay more taxes. That contention is false. Adding insult to injury, their draft proposals would eliminate both the estate tax, the alternative minimum tax, and lower taxes on pass through profits from limited liability companies - three taxes paid only by exceedingly wealthy people.

From this point on, it is all about evaluating the various proposals on their distributional impact. We must make certain that every tax proposal that is floated is subject to this test, and tailor our notes to Congress accordingly. There are three things we can do today:

1) Let the Ways and Means Committee Know You’re Out There
	There are 40 members of the House Ways and Means Committee, which will start the action by reviewing the proposal of their chair, Kevin Brady, which he has prepared in conjunction with Paul Ryan. The proposal is already being opposed by the Republican-leaning National Association of Home Builders. It’s complicated, but they are worried that the proposed increase in the standard deduction would decrease itemizers and thus the impact of the existing mortgage deduction, and consequently destabilize the housing market. They wanted a fix through a new tax credit, and were turned down. This back and forth is relevant because it creates a more receptive climate for your letter. The Republicans on the committee will come together to pass a bill, but many will be influenced by their mail and calls, as they pick and choose their pain and gain. The 40 members of the committee are spread across the country, so chances are good there will be one or more from your state for you to send a note or make a call. That’s good thing because it will be easier for you to deal with the defenses members are setting up to decrease their out of state email. See the committee member list here. The best argument to emphasize is the need for the bill to attend to middle class taxpayers. Please note for them that you as a voter are watching their actions on this specific issue.
2) Figure Out What is Happening on SALT, and Act Accordingly
	Republicans in higher tax states are very worried that their taxpayers will be disproportionately impacted as the deduction for state and local taxes (SALT) is pared back or eliminated. This is complex, too, because the relative impact on the middle class and the very wealthy of rolling back this tax break depends on each state’s tax structure. It is certainly the case that decreasing this deduction in order to raise revenue to make it possible to eliminate the alternative minimum tax and the estate tax is a bad deal for the middle class and everyone else who doesn’t pay these two taxes. Thus, it is a good idea to go all the way back to your own state legislators from your own district. You can send them an email and make sure they are focused on what’s happening on this issue on the federal level. You can ask them to examine the impact on middle income taxpayers and be in contact with members of Congress.
3) Celebrate That Life Isn’t Just About Money
	In the midst of all the legislative focus on the making and keeping of money, a federal district court judge has blocked enforcement Trump’s awful ban on transgendered people in the military. Judge Colleen Kollar-Kotelly was first appointed to the bench by Ronald Reagan. She has ruled the plaintiffs are likely to ultimately win on the merits. In addition to a victory for justice and fairness, this story is about what smaller organizations can do. The organizations bringing suit were GLBQT Legal Advocates and the National Center for Lesbian Rights. Write and thank one or both of them, and if you possibly can, click and send a celebratory contribution that will help them pay for legal costs going forward. GLBQT Legal Advocates National Center for Lesbian Rights

Steve Bannon is out there somewhere, doing his venal thing. He is hoping the intensity of your effort will wane. He and his followers are kindly called “economic nationalists” by the media. He is banking on them prevailing, and so is Donald Trump. It is up to all of us to make such an outcome not just inconceivable, but impossible. You can make Steve Bannon a sordid historical footnote.

David Harrison
Bainbridge Island, Washington

#24: In No Way is Donald Trump a Populist

Thank you for continuing to share these messages with your friends, if you are not already on our mailing list, please click here to be added to our list. You can also follow me on Facebook. The more people we can reach, the more we contribute to this growing movement. We share these posts on our blog, A Path Forward to November 3, 2020, every two weeks, which means there will be a total of 100 missives before the Presidential election of 2020, in which our country will select a whole new course.

As this bizarre Presidency unfolds and unravels, the media has grown accustomed to labeling Donald Trump’s beliefs. The most accurate such description is “Trumpism”, which one imagines means the collective policy and political positions of Donald Trump. Of course that doesn’t get us very far in predicting behavior or establishing coherence.

Two other terms have come into vogue, both false and both affording Trump greater credence than he has earned. The first, “economic nationalism”, implies that much of Trump’s primary platform is to put the economic interests of the United States and its people far ahead of any economic interests of other countries and people.

This “truth” is not self-evident. Its genesis comes from Trump’s re-negotiation of some elements of NAFTA and his current trade battles with China, Canada and others. But putting our economic interests first requires us to have economic success over time, which we can’t achieve without having robust markets for our products. Being in constant conflict with other countries weakens us as a trading partner, recasts us as the bully in the marketplace, and risks serious trade wars that will cost us.

The even more problematic untruth is calling Trump a populist. The word populist is conveyed on someone “seeking to represent the interests of ordinary people.” Even the venerated New York Times cannot keep itself from calling Trump and his supporters “the populist wing” of the Republican Party as opposed to the “establishment wing.” So, the word populist conveys authenticity, pretending that the ultimate self-dealing, self-aggrandizing President is “of the people”. The real situation is that he is attending to the pretense of being of the people. With his approval levels declining significantly, the people are not so sure about it.

If Donald Trump is all about advancing the lives of ordinary people, see if he can pass this test:

• A populist wouldn’t propose “tax reform” that would personally save him a billion dollars by eliminating estate taxes on the wealthy.
• A populist would never spend each weekend using taxpayer dollars provided by ordinary people to fly to his various properties so that has can promote them.
• A populist wouldn’t think of filling his cabinet with billionaires who could not be more removed from America’s neighborhoods and communities.
• A populist would not use his presidency to regularly attack any woman who dares to stand up to him.
• An authentic populist would not ignore and leave us vulnerable to the enormous impacts of climate change, which will have the greatest impact on people with fewer resources.

This fall will be all about tax reform. It begins with the fiction as well that huge tax reductions for the very wealthy and for corporations will produce economic growth and tax revenue so great that it will wipe out the $1.5 trillion shortfall that the tax cuts create. This is being said with a straight face by Republicans who cut taxes six times in the days of George W. Bush and never saw such revenues appear. Reagan budget director David Stockman calls Trump’s tax proposals an “aspirational air ball”. That is being kind.

It’s the new battle, and one worth fighting with everything we’ve got. The fundamental question is whether we want the awful wealth maldistribution in America to get even worse, because everything Ryan and Trump have thrown out so far would make it so. The present Trump sketch would give 50% of the tax relief to people making over $700,000 a year. From the Center for Budget and Policy Priorities comes this succinct review of what would be wrought. 

Let’s accelerate. Republicans have already set in motion a reconciliation process which means they will only need to get 50 votes in the Senate. This will be hard to do, because John McCain is a likely no, and a number of other Republican Senators including Rand Paul are worried about increasing the deficit. Much like the successful battle that lead to the survival of the Affordable Care Act, we will need to start with “moderate” Republicans in the Senate as we insist on a fair and equitable tax reform bill. Because 20 or so Republican House members are upset with spending cuts insisted upon by the Freedom Caucus, there may some insisting that we can do in the House as well.

Here are three things that we can do today:

1) Spread the Truth About the Estate Tax
	There is no federal taxation on estates of less than $5.5 million for an individual and $11 million for a couple, and the marginal tax rate has been lowered over the years. Donald Trump just told a very big lie. He said that “millions” of farmers and small businesses would be freed from having to sell their holdings to pay the tax if we only eliminate the tax. The number of farmers and farms that would be subject to the estate tax next year will be around 80. These are huge multi-million dollar farm operations, and even those are afforded an extended payment schedule so that they can keep their farms within their families. The bulk of the benefits from estate tax elimination would instead go to people who have assets like Donald Trump, not the farmer with some plentiful acreage and row crops near you. As noted, Trump himself would save an estimated billion dollars. Nice work if you can get it. It is critical that we set the record straight, and this analysis can help you do that. You could write a letter to your local newspaper, which is still out there. You could advance the politifact.com posting through social media, or email the link to your friends. Either way, this misinformation cannot be allowed to stand, and the wealthiest Americans should not be allowed to hide behind the American farmer.
2) Focus on Key Moderate Republicans
	The vote of Senator Bob Corker of Tennessee may determine whether a Trump-like proposal makes it through the Senate Finance Committee and is sent to the floor. That’s because politically proportionate representation on that key committee yields only a one vote edge, with 10 Republicans and 9 Democrats. Corker has already expressed concerns about the tax proposal but he has also agreed to let the budget process go forward at least temporarily. It includes a predicted tax reform related $1.5 trillion revenue loss over the next ten years. Famously, he has called into question Trump’s “stability” and “competence”, and he has already announced he is not running for re-election. He is against adding to the deficit. He is as free to do the right thing as he is ever going to be. You can help him think about what the right thing is. Since he has already argued against increasing the deficit, Donald Trump and Mitch McConnell will try to make certain he is fine with the proposition that $1.5 trillion in revenue losses will be offset by revenue gains from a boosted economy. It has never been so. Please write and call to tell Bob Corker that. Senator Bob Corker Email Phone: 202-224-3344 In the House, Charlie Dent of Pennsylvania is leader of the Tuesday group. These are “moderates” but not at all in the way that moderation used to be in the heart of the Republican party. Charlie Dent and some of his colleagues are feeling badly that some of them were driven by Republican leadership to “walk the plank”. They voted to repeal the Affordable Care Act, which turned out to be all pain and no gain since repeal didn’t pass the Senate. To make things worse, Donald Trump called the House Republican version “mean” after he got their votes. All this means that these Republicans are feeling wronged, and they are being asked to accept social welfare and other spending cuts that Senate Republicans will never ratify. Charlie Dent is already used to being criticized by Trump, and he is not running for re-election. Please write and call him and say that it is time for him to be counted and to lead the Tuesday group Republicans down a new path. Representative Charlie Dent Email Phone: 202-225-6411
3) Support Tax Justice Advocates
	Some battles need relentless advocacy, and that is what Citizens for Tax Justice has been providing for years. This would be an outstanding time to click and donate. They won’t necessarily be in the room when final decisions are made, or when the 50th Senate vote is gained by one side of the other. But they will have fueled the arguments for tax equity. The case for tax reform that doesn’t upend the American people would be far less powerful were it not for their efforts.

Certainly, this has become a slog. The good news about Donald Trump’s day to day behavior is it never creates self-doubt in all of us on whether we should resist! Let’s all keep doing what we are doing. Don’t forget to choose a Congressional campaign or two. This is no time to let up.

David Harrison
Bainbridge Island, Washington

#22: We Must Prevent Him From Afflicting the Afflicted and Comforting the Comfortable

Thank you for continuing to share these messages with your friends, if you are not already on our mailing list, please click here to be added to our list. You can also follow me on Facebook. The more people we can reach, the more we contribute to this growing movement. We share these posts on our blog, A Path Forward to November 3, 2020, every two weeks, which means there will be a total of 100 missives before the Presidential election of 2020, in which our country will select a whole new course.

This fall will bring a whole new set of issues which must be engaged by those who are worried about how our country will move forward. The summer recess by Congress removed the sporadically achieved "regular order" that John McCain sought.

In its place, we got Donald Trump even more unmoored, lurching through Charlottesville and Steve Bannon's departure, throwing out random Korea threats, seeking approval from Fox News and from late night calls with cronies. He has the most tortured nights at the White House since Abraham Lincoln walked at midnight. How awful it must feel to have only tweets and calling Roger Stone as your solace.

There will be a broader set of crises this fall - North Korea, Robert Mueller's progress, the Hurricane Harvey aftermath and with it the realization that Donald Trump has no capacity to lead the response. Notably, there will be an effort this fall by a bipartisan group of senators to shore up the health insurance markets that Donald Trump has roiled.

However, the best opportunities this fall for the millions of us who are dedicated to resistance will come in the areas of budget, finance and tax. Congress will determine whether and how the debt ceiling will be raised, how the government will be funded for the next several months, and how our taxes will be "reformed".

These are not just numbers on the page. Regarding the extension of government spending into December or January, we either will have a funded and functioning State Department and Foreign Service or we will not. Huge budget cuts for the EPA can be prevented. The modest Federal support of Planned Parenthood can be maintained. And, we can remove Donald Trump's thumb from the eye of the Mexican people by not building the wall.

Two forces will converge in assisting us in meeting these goals. First, Republicans are not unmindful that Donald Trump's criticisms of them can damage them politically, but they are still more worried about him and less scared of him than at any time since he was elected.

Secondly, and as important, the rules of the Senate will strengthen the hands of the Democrats by requiring 60 votes to close off debate on both the budget resolution and the increase in the debt ceiling. This will give Charles Schumer and his Senate Democrat colleagues plenty of leverage.

In the House, the Freedom Caucus will want significant Medicaid cuts as a part of a deal to increase the debt ceiling. Paul Ryan may have to make a deal with Democrats to keep the government open, which in turn could imperil his speakership. To him and to Mitch McConnell, Donald Trump is no help on any of this.

Tax reform will test the resistance, because Democratic members of Congress have some interest in adjusting the levels of corporate taxation, seeking to boost companies to higher levels of international competitiveness. Here's where the devil will be there with the details. Past tax reform efforts have exacerbated the growing wealth maldistribution that plagues America. Corporate tax reductions of the recent past have not resulted in levels of corporate investment in people, plants, and equipment that policymakers have projected.

Donald Trump, in the face of all these challenges, will want to afflict the afflicted and comfort the comfortable. These three actions can make certain we go in the right direction:

1) Senator Schumer, Tear Down That Wall
	Donald Trump still wants to build the wall. As he told Mexican President Peña Nieto in January he needs to do so because he promised his base he would. To the rest of us this is not a compelling reason to proceed. Certainly, there is political significance for him winning or losing this battle, but this proposal is about a greater crime - treating another nation as Trump lackeys and living a lie about Mexico. The good news is that the Senate rules and Trump's unpopularity are giving Democrats more traction on budget items. However, with that traction comes the promising but delicate opportunity to trade with Republican leadership, securing a gain on one front while making a sacrifice on another. Write minority leader Schumer's key staff member and tell her that for millions of us any building of the wall is not acceptable. Meghan Taira Legislative Director (202) 224-6542 meghan_taira@schumer.senate.gov
2) Confront Tax Reform as a Wealth Disparity Issue
	It's easy to get lost in the technical complexity of tax reform. It's that complexity that could make it possible for there to be some bipartisan support for a reduction in corporate tax rates without anyone sufficiently addressing ways to address wealth disparities and the continued gilding of the very rich. Corporate tax reform is a new opportunity for Mitch McConnell to pick off Democratic senators from states which Donald Trump won, including Heidi Heitkamp from North Dakota, Joe Manchin from West Virginia and Claire McCaskill from Missouri. Email these three legislative directors and tell the Senator for whom they work to demand tax fairness as an indispensable element of any bill they support: janelle_mcclure@mccaskill.senate.gov tracee_sutton@heitkamp.senate.gov wesley_kunge@manchin.senate.gov Check Americans for Tax Fairness for any underlying information you need.
3) Re-gear for Planned Parenthood
	The defeat of the "skinny" health care bill with John McCain's dramatic thumbs-down saved Planned Parenthood funding for now. This battle will remain pitched until we take back the House in 2018. As outlined in missive #19, Senator Lisa Murkowski of Alaska is our leader and deserves our thanks. Attention must now be paid to strengthen an already strong reproductive freedom movement. Planned Parenthood has an all new initiative built around the defense and advocacy for 600 clinics around the country and they are looking for more help from you today.

It just keeps on. Donald Trump says he loves dreamers except when he kicks them out of the country. He loves Harvey victims except when he treats the whole disaster like his own reality tv show.

He sees South Korea and China as major partners fighting the dangers of Kim Jong-un except for when he tweet-trashes them.

As a movement, we continue to grow. We are parrying everywhere we can and we are having great success. This demands our concentration every week as new offenses emerge, but there is no question that all of us together are up to this job.

David Harrison
Bainbridge Island, Washington

#11: It Matters What Legislative Proposals Say and Seek to Do

Thank you for continuing to share these messages with your friends, if you are not already on our mailing list, please click here to be added to our list. You can also follow me on Facebook. The more people we can reach, the more we contribute to this growing movement. We share these posts every two weeks, which means there will be a total of 100 missives before the Presidential election of 2020, in which our country will select a whole new course. 

In all the back and forth on who’s voting for what, and who is being investigated and who is being criticized, it would be easy to forget that there is an underlying, deeply consequential debate that has stretched over the decades. What will we do with and for each other through our government? What problems will we recognize as appropriate for joint, intensive action? What policies will we select to confront them?

It might be even easier today to forget the idea that government has underlying policies because it isn’t how Donald Trump thinks about things. From the time he announced a month or so before the American Health Care Act failed that he and Congress would replace “Obamacare” with something better and cheaper that would cover just as many people or even more people, he never had a chance of fulfilling that pledge. He did not necessarily understand the interconnecting parts of the law which would guarantee that his promise was empty, and it is not so clear that he wants to understand such things. Winning is everything. What there is that should be won is a lesser consideration.

In the end, he lost the health care battle (at least for now) because he did not care very much about what Speaker Ryan’s proposal contained. Commentators seemed surprised that Trump didn’t end up seeking to attend to people he promised to help during his campaign rallies. This misses the point. He does not see his role as sorting out what a legislative proposal will or will not do, and seeking to improve it. He is an incurious person. If the American Health Care Act had ended up responding directly to the needs of an unemployed Pennsylvania factory worker, it would have happened by accident.

The new health care “compromise” now being floated by the White House takes indifference to a new, even more creative level. They want to be able to say they are lowering premiums in insurance offered on exchanges. They are angling to get there by allowing states to individually redefine necessary coverage, giving them the option of jettisoning maternity care, mental health, and emergency room services. Let’s be relentless on this, and make Congress and the White House go back to the fundamental needs of people who are in need. In two minutes on the House floor, Representative John Lewis said it all. 

From the Homestead Act to the New Deal to Medicare, Food Stamps and the Civil Rights Act of 1963, opportunity and justice in our nation have been shaped by the policy choices our representatives have made for our government. This cannot and will not change, and seeking to provide health care for all is just one more major step along the path. We are heartened not by the Freedom Caucus blocking the bill, but that the concessions to the Freedom Caucus resulted in “moderate Republicans” walking away because they could no longer live with the substance of the bill and the policies it espoused.

What legislative proposals actually say and seek to do matters. The 2018 Congressional elections are not so far away, Republicans will either vote against defective proposals, or they will vote for such proposals and be held accountable by voters. It is a stroke of good fortune for the resistance that the next major policy issue will be tax reform. It is being touted as a much simpler issue than repealing and replacing the Affordable Care Act, but it isn’t. Moreover, the fundamental question the American media will ask about each tax reform proposal is who it is geared to help. Donald Trump’s initial position on necessary tax law changes would result in an enormous transfer of wealth from the middle class to the rich. Let that battle be joined!

Here are three things we can all do, now:

1)Take on Tax Reform as a Major Obsession
	The concentration of wealth in the hands of a small percentage of Americans is one of the defining issues of our time. Why would we want “tax reform” to exacerbate this existing, already nearly intractable problem? The tax reform proposals put forth by Republican leaders (including Donald Trump during the campaign) are “reverse Robin Hood” proposals - they take from people with less money, and give to people with more money. Proposals that comfort the comfortable have become such a fundamental part of Republican orthodoxy that they are presented without embarrassment. For reasons having to do with Senate procedures and spending rules, Republicans are hampered in executing their broader version of tax reform by their failure to pass their health care bill, which would have eliminated nearly a trillion dollars of taxes over the next ten years. However, even a stripped down bill will include these provisions that will widen wealth disparities: A reduction in corporate income taxes, which is not such an outlandish idea, since it could bring billions in corporate capital back home from international banks. Though not outlandish, this could still turn out badly. The issue is how to do it in a way that stimulates investment and avoids an increase in the tax burden of the middle class. Elimination of the federal estate tax, which has been reduced markedly over the years. Repeal would enable the tax-free transfer of billion dollar estates. Elimination of the Alternative Minimum Tax, which keeps high income taxpayers from wiping out their tax liability with deductions. $30 million in taxes that Trump paid in 2005 were due to the Alternative Minimum Tax. Its levels may need readjustment, but without it, the tax participation of America’s multi-millionaires and billionaires would fall precipitously. In addition, the Trump approach could well include a tax on imports which is part of his punitive approach toward Mexico. The first thing and paramount thing we all need to do is argue that distribution of taxes among income classes is the single most important tax reform issue. As proposals are developed and debated, the unacceptability of further nest-feathering for people who already have the greatest assets must be constantly underscored. As advocates, we must be relentless in our attention to the narrative of tax equity. Let’s give fresh attention to our own representatives on these matters. If you have a member of Congress who you think is already sympathetic, call or write anyway, because this situation will end up being more fluid than health care has been. That is, there may be some elements of a new proposal that House leadership will ultimately put together that are appealing to some Democrats. Make sure your member of Congress knows how you feel about the basics. Check out to see if someone from your state is a member of one of the two tax writing committees, the House Ways and Means Committee and the Senate Finance Committee. We have been having some success in these missives in bypassing the elected official and contacting her or his legislative director. If you are game, go into their office directory and give that a try. And, to top it all off, do your part in supporting equity by backing a state minimum wage campaign.
2) Choose a Congressional Campaign if You Haven’t Already Done So
	Right after Donald Trump was elected, it didn’t seem likely that Democrats would take back the House of Representatives in 2018. Now, as independents desert Trump, the chances have significantly improved. Past missives #4 and #8 have identified especially attractive races as we seek to win 24 seats. As you identify a targeted race near you and choose where to put your energies, focus also on two special elections in 2017 where there is at least a chance of taking back a seat. Send our candidates a check! In Georgia’s 6th district, the candidate is Jon Ossoff, seeking to fill the seat of Tom Price, who was named HHS Secretary. This is very promising, with the first round of voting on April 18. A somewhat longer shot in Montana in May is Rob Quist, who is the Democratic candidate to replace Ryan Zinke, who became Interior Secretary.
3) Learn About New Directions for Workers Whose Jobs Aren’t There
	Dynamic economies create and lose jobs constantly, and there is no place that job loss is more predictable than in the mining of coal. Donald Trump’s executive order is built around a nest of untruths. News of the week revealed that the small mining companies themselves are turning to green energy, looking at the costs of coal mining relative to the return, and increasing their investment in natural gas because its lower prices are winning over markets. Nonetheless, the 70,000 jobs that remain are not just any jobs. They are concentrated in communities that have too few jobs in the first place. They pay enough money to support a family, and they are available to workers with a high school education. We would be very happy to have more “family wage” jobs at all educational levels in this country. There aren’t a lot of new paths for a 58 year old coal miner whose industry is faltering. But our country can do better at providing education and career and technical training to younger and middle aged workers, often carried about with excellence by Community and Technical Colleges. Check out the retraining systems in your state and see if under-employed or displaced workers are being provided new opportunities to participate in the changing economy.

What is around the corner that we can work toward? How can we maintain intensity of effort? When will there be a time that we can read and watch the news without daily dismay? It is a long time until the next Presidential election. But it is not a long time until November 6, 2018, the day we can take back the House of Representatives and put on the brakes.

With Trump’s approval rating under 40%, capturing the 24 seats we need is entirely doable. But it is now when we find good candidates, organize, coalesce, learn, raise money, and register voters. Act on the possibilities, and prepare to have a big smile on your face on Wednesday, November 7, 2018.

David Harrison
Bainbridge Island, Washington