#58: This is What We Will Do to Take Back the Senate

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It was a week after the November 2018 election when the extent of the victory by the resistance became clear. There was a stunning increase in voter turnout compared to other non-presidential years. Democratic inroads in the suburbs were significant. And thus we won back 40 seats and flipped the House.

There was nothing accidental about any of this. It required unprecedented grass roots campaign activity and financial support. It included dozens of excellent candidates stepping forward who had never intended to run for office and who were motivated by Donald Trump.

Now it falls to all of us to duplicate or even expand on that massive effort and take back the Senate on November 3, 2020. This matters hugely because the Senate provides the sole review of numerous Presidential appointments, including those to the Cabinet and to the Supreme Court. As we know the Supreme Court nomination process puts Roe v. Wade itself at risk. It is not inevitable that it will be overturned, but the very real risk of losing this constitutional guarantee entirely underscores that we must have the Senate majority when Steven Breyer or Ruth Bader Ginsburg retire. The Senate also has extra importance because it has played a more pronounced role than the House in protecting alliances abroad, which Donald Trump has been intent on eviscerating.

Although Doug Jones of Alabama may be the only Democratic Senator who will face re-election problems, Republicans could launch major challenges to Tina Smith in Minnesota and Gary Peters in Michigan. In contrast, there are many states in which Republican Senators are vulnerable. Democrats think they can unseat Cory Gardner in Colorado, Martha McSally in Arizona (where Gabby Giffords’ husband, astronaut Marc Kelly, may run), Susan Collins in Maine, and Thom Tillis in North Carolina. They are eager to challenge Joni Ernst in Iowa, Dan Sullivan in Alaska, David Perdue in Georgia (where Stacey Abrams may run) and Steve Daines in Montana. They may also compete for the seat in Tennessee that will be vacant after the retirement of Republican Lamar Alexander.

That adds up to nine races. Remember how exhilarated you felt after we flipped the House? You can experience that feeling again in less than two years! Beyond these nine, the number of other races which will be competitive depends upon how Donald Trump does between now and then, and how hard we all work. Given that Trump needs to face Mueller and given his shutdown-slip in the polls, we can anticipate a favorable electoral climate. We also fully understand that we must generate massive candidate support. With these motivations, it would behoove this movement to dive into the nine races above, and at the minimum, these three additional states:

• Kansas has a vacant seat due to the impending retirement of Pat Roberts. Democrats are fresh from winning the governorship and a Congressional seat in the Kansas City area, and believe they have a solid chance.

• Republican John Cornyn will likely seek re-election in Texas. Demographics will continue to drive the state toward Democrats. Will Beto O’Rourke be the Democratic candidate?

• How can one not campaign in Kentucky against the soulless service and Trump-tolerating Mitch McConnell? 

We must understand that winning a Senate campaign has notable differences from taking back the Presidency, which is more about national media and less about local organizing. Happily, these Senate races will be a bit more like super-sized House campaigns, for which our postcards, doorbelling, millions of small contributions, voter registration and other ongoing obsessions carried the day.

In the next year, these Senate Republicans will have numerous opportunities to pull away from Trump, or in the alternative to defend the indefensible. It was a recent encouraging sign when eleven Republican Senators challenged the Trump administration, voting to block the removal of sanctions from an oligarch colleague of Putin. Four of these votes came from the politically vulnerable Collins, Daines, Gardner and McSally. But it was more of a shadow of courage, rather than a profile, since they and Mitch McConnell knew all along that they would need 13 Republican votes to help the Democrats prevail. That is, McConnell consented to his caucus members voting their conscience, but would not have been their sweet-hearted uncle if they had found two more votes. The whole episode had value only as a signal of future possibilities.

We must carefully watch the upcoming opportunities for Republicans to either distance themselves from Trump or otherwise be held accountable for not doing so. The first pertains to the theatrics of the budget showdown. The little considered fact is that in December, Republicans in the Senate joined Democrats in passing by voice vote the same set of budget proposals that they now argue are evidence of Schumer’s and Pelosi’s intransigence. These budget proposals would have become law without any shutdown if Trump hadn’t turned on FOX-TV to hear the criticism of Ann Coulter and Rush Limbaugh. So why can’t these Republicans figure out that they were right the first time?

There will be at least two other votes in 2019 that will tell a tale about vulnerable Republican senators. First the Democratic House will send over to the Senate a bill that solidifies protections for Americans with pre-existing conditions. These Affordable Care Act guarantees have been diminished by Trump and the Republican Congress. Second, Nancy Pelosi and her colleagues will figure out a way for the Senate to have to vote on at least modest steps to respond to climate change. This will handily provide each Republican a chance to recognize the existence of the greatest environmental challenge now faced by humankind.

While the government is closed down, let’s work to change government. Taking back the Senate would be nothing but an excellent thing to do. It depends upon our efforts now, not just a year from this fall. Let’s pretend that it is later than it is, so that it never becomes too late.

1) Making Certain People Can Vote in 2020
	There are all sorts of ways in which election laws and rules can diminish and distort the vote. This is one place where vigilance is the price of liberty. Left on their own, state legislatures can throw up new voting roadblocks. The most pernicious of these are voter ID laws. 35 states require the voter to have some sort of identification. The strictest requirement (a photo ID with little or no option) is in force in six states, and can suppress the vote by as much as 10%. The National Conference of State Legislatures details where there are new voter ID efforts.  Other ways to suppress the vote include reducing polling hours or limiting the use of mail ballots. In the face of such threats, Democrats have proposed all-mail ballots and to confront turn-out at an earlier stage, automatic voter registration. Find out what is happening. As all 50 legislatures head into session, it would be good for you to know whether such organizations with local affiliates as the League of Women Voters and the American Civil Liberties Union have an active voting law agenda in your state legislature. You can ask them, or write to your state representative. Another way to find out would be to write the chair or executive director of your state’s Democratic Party. Their answer will provide insight regarding what is going on in the area of voting rights and it will give you a hint as to whether the state party is sleepy or spirited.
2) Understanding the Value of Early Investment
	Grass roots contributions from across the country played an indispensable role in the 2016 elections. We stepped away from our previous time-honored tendencies to underfund our candidates. The instruments are already set up so that we can choose the most promising 2020 Senate races (see above) and invest early in our candidate. The funds go into an Act Blue “district account” that will be transferred to the candidate when she or he is nominated. Act Blue has proven itself to be an effective low cost online funding intermediary. In this case, they have selected the nine races targeted above, and are also seeking funding for four Democratic incumbents. They allow us to pick and choose rather than prescribing a single bundle. Early money is like yeast.
3) Making Food Available to Those Who Need to Eat
	We should be pleased and proud that food banks across America are providing groceries to federal employees who have now missed two paychecks. This is an additional load for these food banks, all of whom already have numerous clients who have employment problems even more serious than those who have Donald Trump as their titular boss. It’s a perfect time to donate food to your local food bank through the systems they have established. You are saying something to Trump and to America by making sure these shelves are filled, and thus are accessible to laid-off workers, and to other hungry people who live in a country that needs to pay more attention.

Well, at least we share one sensibility with Donald Trump. Accounts are that he had no desire or intention to be president, evidenced by the fact that he had no true transition team and underscored by his efforts to create Trump Tower Moscow up until the end of the campaign. For our part, we had no intention or desire for him to be president either… We will get this all done, celebrate when he is out of office, and make certain something like this does not happen again.

David Harrison
Bainbridge Island, Washington

#53: We Can Take Advantage of These Huge Gains

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Tuesday, November 6 was a monumental day for the resistance, significantly more successful than many pundits and headlines reveal. We gained 35 or so House seats, the most since Watergate, and we did it in the face of Republican gerrymandering after the 2010 census. In terms of blocking many of the worst of Donald Trump’s abuses, hardly anything beats controlling one of the Houses of Congress. And where and how we did it is revelatory. We captured two thirds of America’s suburban districts. We won districts that we wouldn’t even have put into play in other years. We elected shiny, bright, focused younger people and diverse people who will make Congress look more like America. Youth voting increased by a third over 2014. 

We won a seat in Kansas, and its governorship. We won three of the four House seats in Iowa! We beat Dave Brat of the tea party in Virginia, and the Putin-admiring Dana Rohrbacker in California. Donald Trump dumped the insufficiently toadying Mark Sanford in South Carolina during the primary, permitting us to take the seat by beating his chosen acolyte Katie Arrington. We were not able to get the Georgia seat for Jon Ossoff in the special election in April, and now we have won it with Lucy McBath.

We took back seven governorships. We defeated Scott Walker in Wisconsin and won back Michigan behind Gretchen Whitmer and Illinois behind J.B. Pritzker. With the easy gubernatorial victory in Pennsylvania, we made a statement throughout the industrial Midwest. We flipped control of legislatures in six states and unseated 350 Republican state legislators. The red states of Idaho, Nebraska and Utah expanded Medicaid in their states to reach far more people who would otherwise be denied health care. In three states, we passed initiatives to turn away from gerrymandering.

Even in the Senate, with Kristin Sinema now winning the open seat in Arizona and Bill Nelson still a possibility in Florida, we minimized our losses to a maximum of two seats. This was in the face of the most favorable Republican map since the direct election of Senators began in 1913. Jacky Rosen beat Dean Heller in Nevada, after Trump turned him away from demonstrating the tiniest interest in the Affordable Care Act. 

We did all of this together. We all became a part of this movement when the Democratic Party itself was in disarray in November of 2016. We never asked permission of anyone. Working together in countless living rooms, we started aiming toward Tuesday’s outcome very early and with open wounds. With each month, our efforts got bigger and better. That’s why so many of our candidates won. And that’s why if we exhibit the same behavior going forward, wisely and relentlessly, we will take back the Presidency in two years.

It is good that we have never been more energized, because we still have a distance to go. It is intriguing to know that if we roll out the same margins in the same states in 2020, we would win the electoral vote 314-224. Of course now that we know that, let’s forget it, lest it lead to even a bit of comfort that could turn into laxity. If you are looking for a dose of information on resistance efforts in the future, sign up for Swing Left's "What's Next?" debriefing this Sunday the 18th.

The question is how we will use what we just did going forward, not only in the 2020 electoral process but through legislative action prior to then. We know that controlling the House means being able to block approaches that Trump and Mitch McConnell would otherwise advance. This is an especially powerful position on spending and on the domestic policy agenda, and less so in influencing or blocking Trump’s foreign policy. Of course, there also will be the fact-finding advantage of Committee chairs Adam Schiff (Intelligence), Jerome Nadler (Judiciary) and Elijah Cummings (Oversight) being able to issue subpoenas. The protective zone around the president’s varied misdeeds has been breached. 

Another change has received less attention. The Democratic control of the House will alter voting dynamics in the Senate. Last session, the Republicans were able to put their debates on health care and tax reform under the rubric of the budget reconciliation process. This meant that on these issues they would only need 50 votes in the Senate, rather than the 60 (to close debate) for ordinary legislation. The fact that they couldn’t lose two votes from their caucus on these reconciliation votes gave Susan Collins, John McCain and Lisa Murkowski political leverage even though they did not exercise it as often as we would have preferred.

Now tactics will change. The most common operative number for Mitch McConnell will be 60 Senators, because the House can block any such reconciliation process ploys. No more comforting the comfortable through tax bills. Outside of the painful confirmation processes where only the Senate acts, we are back to bi-partisan compromise. The President can wield influence by threatening to veto a bill, but his ability to advance legislation without Democrats just went away. McConnell’s approach will be to try to persuade eight or so Democrats to join his position on any specific issue so the Senate Republicans can get to 60.

Budgets must be negotiated and appropriations passed, so the government can run. There’s talk of some joint interest in infrastructure improvements and controlling drug pricing. Beyond those things, everything else is up in the air, including immigration and taking even tiny steps to battle climate change.

There will be plenty of work for all of us to influence these legislative processes, but there is some business we will need to take care of even before that. Let’s do these three things now:

1) The Elections are Not Quite Over
	We’re all watching Staci Abrams’ effort to get every vote counted, which could push her opponent under 50% of the vote and lead to a runoff election in December. It may well not happen (he is at 50.2%), but if it does we will all need to act quickly to provide support, because the runoff would be in December. Democrat Mike Espy is in a runoff on November 27 for a Senate seat from Mississippi. Because the more “moderate” of the Republicans survived the November 6 ballot, this race is a long shot for Espy. He was Bill Clinton’s Secretary of Agriculture and is a good candidate. Even with the longer odds, now that your treasury isn’t being sought from multiple political directions, you might want to give Mike Espy a boost to see what happens.
2) Protecting Robert Mueller
	We’ve all been successfully defending the Mueller investigation for two years, and more indictments are imminent. Now that we have taken back the House, we will get the extra measure of protection from Adam Schiff being Intelligence Committee chair. Goodbye Devin Nunes and your justice-impairing proclivities. Donald Trump’s appointment of Matt Whitaker as acting Attorney General is a new thumb in the eye. It may not meet the constitutional standards for confirmation. Equally important, Whitaker has publicly declared that there is no collusion between Trump and the Russians. Since this is a primary subject of the investigation, this statement should immediately disqualify Whitaker from any supervision of Mueller. Richard Burr, the Republican Chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee, has prided himself in protecting Mueller. Please call one or both of two senior Republican members of this committee and ask what they are doing to protect the integrity of the investigation: Senator Marco Rubio of Florida: (202) 224-3041 Senator James Lankford of Oklahoma: (202) 224-5754
3) Remember the Impact of Non-Partisan Organizations
	It’s the season for charitable giving. There are many ways to use gifts to tax-exempt non-profits to fight against voter suppression and for free and fair elections. Depressing the vote has become the standard practice of the Trump party. Fighting back, The Brennan Center for Justice at New York University and the Southern Poverty Law Center are both able to accept your charitable giving under section 501(c)3 of the Internal Revenue Code. For those resisters over 70 ½, these organizations are also able to receive a portion of your Required Minimum Distribution (RMD) from your Individual Retirement Account.

It’s mystifying that not every resister has grasped the full implications of what we did together on November 6. Maybe some are just not wanting to celebrate knowing how much remains to be done before Trump is displaced and replaced. Bring it on.

David Harrison
Bainbridge Island, Washington

#52: We’re Not Going to Let Him Pry the Bill of Rights Away From Us

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Some of us have taken personally all of these things about Donald Trump. His presidency has eaten away at our country, and we have not been able to abide it at all.

We have been sustained by the too rare legislative victory, notably John McCain’s thumbs down on overturning the Affordable Care Act. Even more so, our strength will come from what we will make happen next Tuesday. We have put together the largest collection of well-funded and well-fought off-year Congressional campaigns in history. We have been unrelenting. Because of that, we will win back the House of Representatives on Tuesday, November 6. 

Through it all, have we been too miserable, too worried, too obsessed with Trump? Have we overlooked any commendable policies he has advanced? Have we allowed his con-man, bullying, prevaricating habits to blind us from his positives?

No. No, we have not overlooked his positives. There is no brighter side. He is in permanent service to himself. He swore an oath to the Constitution and seems to think he swore an oath at the Constitution. He will say anything that suits him at any time that suits him. Left to himself, he will take this country apart.

We do not want to be embittered, or heartsick. More importantly, we do not want to see the world’s longest, greatest noble experiment in self-determination slip away. We will not let the Bill of Rights go, and he will be unable to pry it from our hands.

After next Tuesday night, it will be back to work, but in a new phase. There will be an all new set of issues to confront. New legislative challenges will be before us and the Congress, including House committees investigating Trump’s self-dealing on behalf of his holdings; his campaign’s ties to Russia, and his antipathy toward paying the income tax the law requires.

We have barely begun to sort out our Presidential candidates. We must pick a winner, hopefully someone who can articulate a nation’s dreams and its citizens’ values. Certainly, we have missed that. We do not intend to have this unthinkable presidency repeated, or mimicked by another.

With early balloting underway, it might seem like this chapter is over. This is untrue. With us putting new districts in play, there could be as many as 20 house races decided by one percent or less. In races like these, what happens between now and Tuesday will be monumentally important. Similarly, four or five Senate races are tied. Winning over the last few undecided voters and getting our voters to vote will mean everything for our candidates.

As underscored in missive #51, think how awful it would be to wake up on November 7 and wish that we had done more. You know how to keep that from happening. Here’s three things we can do in the next week.

1) Do Everything You Can to Promote Voting
	You can only vote once, but you can wear your “I Voted” pin and be visible about having voted everywhere you go. Just think of the discussions you can start at the post office, the bank, the grocery store or on the bus. Please, please stop telling yourself that single votes don’t matter. If you are unaffiliated, Indivisible is doing phone banking in key districts every day until the election. Here’s where to sign up.
2) Yes, There is a Way to Make One More Donation That Counts
	Early on, veteran political organizers wondered out loud about Swing Left, whose leadership did not ask whether they could join the circle of resistance organizations. They just acted, and they have played a major role ever since. Now in connection with Act Blue, they have the perfect way to fix your worries that you haven’t donated enough. In their Immediate Impact Fund, they have selected nine Congressional races where the margins are tight, and where our candidates could use a last minute cash boost. We have put so much money in play that it might be hard to imagine that parting with a final $100 could make a difference, but it does because there are thousands of us making that same $100 calculation at the same time. Remember that resisters put 85 districts in play for good reasons, to maximize the blue wave and to make Republicans defend ground that they had always assumed was their own. Let’s make sure these candidates are supported.
3) Let’s Make Elections Better With Each Election Cycle
	The battle to end voter suppression is ongoing, as is the separate but related effort to improve redistricting practices. Congressional redistricting will commence once the 2020 Census has been completed. We will make gains in State Houses this year which will have huge consequences for redistricting. In many states, this means acquitting ourselves better in the usual political battles. It is good to remember that there is a higher goal--- using the initiative process or legislative actions to guarantee that both parties attend more carefully to the importance of considering the citizenry when they do district drawing. It is not just gerrymandering that disenfranchises voters. Sometimes the two major parties do horse trading that guarantees one party’s preeminence in one district, providing it to the other party in a neighboring district. This limits the number of swing districts and thus the choices that voters would otherwise be able to make. It produces members of Congress that are less willing to work across the aisle. As told by the outstanding Brennan Center, five states will vote on initiatives that will improve redistricting processes. Four other states are enmeshed in legislative debates on how to redistrict. Check and see if your state is included, and help make it so in the future. Some of these initiatives are drawing serious opposition with smokescreen advertising, so a last boost is a good idea.

Well, we knew it wouldn’t be easy. And it hasn’t been. From the beginning, about the only good thing one could say about the electoral events of November 2016 is that it would surface hidden layers of sexism, racism, homophobia, and xenophobia that we have been needing to get into the daylight and confront. We will keep that up for every minute it takes.

David Harrison
Bainbridge Island, Washington

#51: Do This Important Work Daily, and Hit Your Piggy Bank With a Hammer

Thank you for continuing to share these messages with your friends, if you are not already on our mailing list, please click here to be added to our list. You can also follow me on Facebook. The more people we can reach, the more we contribute to this growing movement. We share these posts on our blog, A Path Forward to November 3, 2020, every two weeks, which means there will be a total of 100 missives before the Presidential election of 2020, in which our country will select a whole new course.

First, find your equilibrium, even as you harbor big dreams for November 6th. 

Then, eliminate political distractions. Checking Real Clear Politics or other sites is fine, but you must know it doesn’t count as actual campaigning for a candidate. Put aside silly discussions which have been the trend of late, like “We in the resistance should be less civil than we have been!” What is that even about? This week and every week, tell the truth, oppose Donald Trump with everything you’ve got, work hard and try to make the country and its politics better. Exchanges about whether you should be more personally unpleasant or a bit thuggish are not worth your time. 

Stop even thinking about which of Trump’s offenses are impeachable, at least for now. Put aside your solid arguments about the political unfairness of the Electoral College. Instead, in the next three weeks, in the time you can allot to politics, spend every bit of it on winning on the 6th.

Think about how you could feel waking up on the 7th. Imagine hearing that 15 or so Congressional races and countless local elections were decided by less than 2% of the vote. Most certainly, this is what will happen. Even with your considerable efforts between now and election day, what if you end up wishing that you had put it all on the table, and that you had worked even harder or donated even more? There won’t be any going back, no do-overs.

So, whatever you would end up wishing you had done, do it now. Maybe you have stopped and wondered what one person alone can do. But you are not alone. You are a part of a movement of millions of people who said two years ago, “No, this will not stand.” This movement depends on all of us knowing that others are by our side every single time we ring a doorbell, send a postcard, or make a donation. Revel in that and contribute to that. Rather than the presence of all of us causing you to decide to do less, make sure it motivates you to do more.

If you find yourself a little lost emotionally, listen to Robert Reich about the nature of his hopefulness. Feed off of the energy of others. Motivate yourself by talking to any unflinching, tireless friends or become unflinching or tireless yourself. 

We are not what Thomas Paine called “summer soldiers” or “sunshine patriots”, who eventually demonstrate that their commitment is thin. We are at this every day, and because we are, the nation will reap rewards. When Paine talked about the “times that try men’s souls” he was battling against a tyranny much greater than Trump’s, but it doesn’t hurt to remember the rest. After he warned that summer soldiers “will in this crisis, shrink from the service of their country” he insisted that one who “stands by it now deserves the love and thanks of man and woman… the harder the conflict, the more glorious the triumph.” 

Donald Trump is arguing that we should see his two years as a time of accomplishment. His argument would be stronger if you would take away his abdication of America’s global position, his mindless incuriosity and willingness to assume any random tweet as the truth, his obsession with himself rather than We the People, his attempt to destroy access to health care for many millions of people for whom health care is essential, his insults to leaders of countries who have stood by our side during the most dangerous of times, his refusal to recognize the huge global environmental threat of climate change, his delight in passing a tax bill to comfort the comfortable, his bullying of others and his fanning of flames of hatred toward people who are vulnerable, his “love” for Chairman Kim and any other dictator who writes him nice letters and his eagerness to separate those who seek asylum from their children.

There won’t be any more legislating until after the election, when there will be a dangerous “lame duck” session in which Paul Ryan will try to advance his agenda one more time. By now it has been stripped of any semblance of a Paul Ryan idea. Like Mitch McConnell, Paul Ryan made a choice to mute his objections to Trump’s innumerable excesses. Both will argue that they were able to shape what has emerged to our collective advantage, that they made things better than they would have been. But it will be their ultimate participation in Trump’s mean-spiritedness and assaults on democracy which will provide them their place in history.

It’s time to move forward with Paine’s “glorious triumph.” We’re done legislating, we are finishing up on registering, and we are now voting on a country’s future. Right now, in the House races, the news is good. Polls on the “generic” Congressional vote (which asks which party’s candidate you are intending to vote for) are showing a 10%+ Democratic advantage). We need to win back 24 seats to control the House. These kinds of polls signal that we can win 40 if we don’t hold anything back, as signaled by Five Thirty Eight. Unlike the Senate election map (where most of the contested elections are in red states) 58 of the 70 House races in play are in blue states, many in suburban districts previously dominated by Republicans. Here is where the gigantic gender gap is playing to our greatest advantage.

Even after the Kavanagh debacle focused our voters and some of Trump’s, we have an enthusiasm advantage, where our movement is more likely to get people to the polls. Now is the time for the doorbelling, the calls, and the attention to turnout that will give us the blue wave we seek. Many of us live in such an intense political environment that it is difficult to remember that more than a third of Americans identify as Independents. More than half of those registered have fallen out of the habit of voting regularly. Please find these people today, and every day until November 6, and please do these three things:

1) Take a Final Pass at Getting People Registered
	There are any number of people who are out there intending to get themselves registered, and not necessarily understanding how easy it is, and not understanding that deadlines are looming. Can you or your friends or your voting age children find more folks to get registered? For a certain younger cohort that votes in insufficient numbers, it’s a matter of finding a clever cure for electile dysfunction. The good news is that some analysts are rejecting the notion that we are facing the typical lower than average mid-term election turnout from younger voters.  Please remember to vote as early as you can. The earlier you vote, the more you will help feed the narrative of a high turnout election, and the more others will follow your lead.
2) Make Your Final Decision on How You Can Help During the Final Two Weeks
	Many of us have already made our decision as to where and how we can boost one or more candidates. If you have found a candidate whose staff knows how to deploy you, go for it! Some of us have participated in an independent group of activists, a Democratic Party organization, or an Indivisible cell. Indivisible still has events you can support or phone banks to join. Or, see what Swing Left has in mind. And then in the perfect way to work together, 22 organizations have combined their efforts to make the last weekend before the election the biggest get out the vote drive possible. You wouldn’t want to be hanging out at home on November 3 and 4, would you?
3) Hit the Piggy Bank With a Hammer
	Previous missives have noted that taking back the Senate is a much more difficult task. Even if we fall short and “only” take back the House, we will be in far, far better position to protect America and the world from Donald Trump than is presently case. Ironically, the reason why the Senate map is so difficult (with almost all the key races in red states) is that we did so well in winning those close races in 2012. That’s why Democrats like Jon Tester, Joe Manchin, Heidi Heitkamp, Joe Donnelly and Claire McCaskill are there in the first place. There is an ideal place to send one last check. In Nevada, Democratic Congresswoman Jacky Rosen is running even with Republican Dean Heller. This is a winnable race in a smaller state. The margin of victory will be small. Dean Heller went from having an independent voice to being enthralled by Donald Trump. Go figure. Just think how it would boost each of us if we were to click and donate to Jacky Rosen today.

It is difficult to keep focus over 24 months. It’s hard not to begin thinking of Donald Trump’s malevolence as business as usual. One could be tempted to shut it all out and try to go on with life without having to shoulder the worries about a nation at risk. But we are not going to do that. As Thomas Paine said, you deserve our love and thanks for all the work you have undertaken.

David Harrison
Bainbridge Island, Washington

#50: Help Accelerate Donald Trump’s Downfall

Thank you for continuing to share these messages with your friends, if you are not already on our mailing list, please click here to be added to our list. You can also follow me on Facebook. The more people we can reach, the more we contribute to this growing movement. We share these posts on our blog, A Path Forward to November 3, 2020, every two weeks, which means there will be a total of 100 missives before the Presidential election of 2020, in which our country will select a whole new course.

Some things about politics and government are complex. Legislative processes are arcane, and they are intentionally built to slow things down, not speed them up. And, as much as they may seem like a contest of television advertising, close Congressional races and the strategies it takes to win them can be complicated too, as strategies are devised, deployed and parried.

Having an election just over thirty days away has the effect of making everything that counts simpler, more obvious and more immediate. So much of what we as resisters have worked for is within our grasp if we tighten our grip now. Right around the corner is a dramatic change to our fortunes, which fell off the precipice in November of 2016. Just over four weeks from now, as we take back the House, win back several Governorships, and contend for the Senate, we can block much Donald Trump's nation-rending.

After we take back the House, Adam Schiff will be coordinating the House Intelligence Committee’s investigation of Russian election meddling, not the head sycophant Devin Nunes. There will be new ways to stymie the destruction of environmental regulations, protect refugees, energize criminal justice reform, block further tax giveaways, and prevent the walling off of Mexico. As importantly, the Democratic leadership of House committees will be able to use subpoena power to explore and expose any number of Trump cons and misdeeds to which the American people continue to be subjected.

With these stakes, our usual luxuries and habits must be set aside. Tweet-generated despair must be followed with an immediate rebound, not an extended period of mourning. Existential discussions of Trump, tittering about Trump gaffes, and exchanges of YouTube videos must all be dispensed with in favor of the real and immediate work before us. It takes just one question to motivate. Do you remember how awful you felt on November 8, 2016, how you would have done anything to take away the shame and the dismay and the worry and the fear? Now we have that chance.

Keeping the Affordable Care Act alive was splendid, as was forcing a reversal of Trump’s policy of separating children from their parents at the border. But, those were just a modest preview of what is to come if the blue wave brings us 40, 50 or even more House seats. 

Achieving that outcome isn’t just about the excellence of our candidate slate or the last month campaign efforts they are devising. This is about how many of us are standing with these candidates and how tall each of us stands. We must not and will not let ourselves get distracted when the focus on getting this done should be the sharpest. Whether or not you live in an enclave of like-minded people (sometimes making the election seem distant) or whether it is around you every day, you are in a position to do more than you have been planning to do! In fact, in some cases you are in a position to do MUCH MUCH more than you are presently planning to do. Since you felt badly in November 2016 and you have felt Trump-despair many times hence, then it’s time for you to take a specific pledge to upgrade your October activities. Among the seven deadly sins that could diminish the blue wave are distraction, overconfidence, misdirection (doing work that is less productive), and procrastination.

We can absolve ourselves of all sins by taking seven steps that characterize the finest resisters. Pledge to yourself today that you will get these things done.

First, be a part of the last wave of postcard sending through many of your local Indivisible cells or through the postcard maniac, Tony the Democrat. We have sent millions of colorful, compelling customized postcards. If you haven’t already done this, you surely wouldn’t want the election to be over without sending a hundred or so yourself.

Second, go to a rally. The closer we get to the election, the more we will collect in large numbers to signify that American is about to change. Large rallies attract attention and thus help get out the vote. Going to hear one of leaders speak will help you feed off the collective energy that is being generated.

Third, however much money you have donated so far, write at least one more check and send it just as soon as you can, since final campaign plans are being formulated. Give up something--- an evening out, a weekend trip, and write a check you never intended to write.

Fourth, find a campaign near or far that needs you there in person. As this missive has emphasized, pick a campaign that has already demonstrated that it is adept in deploying volunteers. Honor them with your presence, at least for a weekend.

Fifth, figure out everyone you know between 18 and 30 and email or text them to remind them that you can still register online in many states, and that they should pass the word. Rock the Vote will tell you and them everything you need to know. 

Sixth, in states accepting early ballots, send a message to like-minded friends asking them to vote as early as possible. The media will be following the early casting of ballots. They will interpret any uncommonly large early pile as supporting a blue wave, which itself will help generate a blue wave.

Seventh, find something you can do on election day that will be helpful to our cause. This could be last minute calling, taking people to the polls, or even holding a campaign sign in a public place.

There may be as many as 20 Congressional races decided by 2% or less. Take the pledge. Do some things you hadn’t expected to. Don’t be a bystander. Surprise yourself at how much you can get done. Help start the beginning of the end of Donald Trump’s assault on America.

And, since that isn’t quite enough, please do these three things:

1) Fight Against the Trump Refugee Cap
	Emma Lazarus said “Give me your tired, your poor, your huddled masses yearning to breathe free” and we made the Statue of Liberty a beacon for refugees. With 25 million people in refugee camps worldwide, Donald Trump has set the United States refugee quota at 30,000 for 2018, the lowest level since the current refugee resettlement program was established in 1980.  Mike Pompeo opposed that decision. When he announced the number, he said it wasn’t indicative of the treatment of vulnerable persons by the United States. Of course, the problem with that heartening sentiment is that it is untrue. Call the majority staff of the Senate Judiciary Committee’s Subcommittee on Border Security and Immigration at 202-224-7840. They won’t necessarily be expecting your call, which will give it even more resonance. Tell them that it is up to them to make sure the beacon is still there.
2) Check Out Initiatives in Your State
	There are 154 Initiatives on the ballot in 38 states. 20 of these are focused on voter access, campaign finance, redistricting methods and other elements of fair and free elections. Find out what is happening in your state. Make certain to continue the fight against voter suppression and for the highest level of citizen participation.
3) Go for Beto O’Rourke, One More Time
	There are all sorts of Democratic Senatorial Candidates that need your support--- Bredesen in Tennessee, Nelson in Florida, Heitkamp in North Dakota. But none will strike the fancy more than the quixotic, exotic effort of Beto O’Rourke to beat Ted Cruz by being a smart, open, idealistic, energetic candidate. He’s not taking PAC money, and he needs our help. $25 each from donors across the country adds up nicely. Beto O’Rourke says that “Texas deserves better” than Ted Cruz. That is a thought that is easy to endorse.

As the months wore on after the 2016 election, it seemed like the day would never come in which we would have our first rebound opportunity. Now it is here. Let’s seize every opportunity it offers, please.

David Harrison
Bainbridge Island, Washington

#46: We Intend to Go Out and Win an Election

Thank you for continuing to share these messages with your friends, if you are not already on our mailing list, please click here to be added to our list. You can also follow me on Facebook. The more people we can reach, the more we contribute to this growing movement. We share these posts on our blog, A Path Forward to November 3, 2020, every two weeks, which means there will be a total of 100 missives before the Presidential election of 2020, in which our country will select a whole new course.

At least we don’t need to devote our precious time examining the pros and cons of supporting the sitting President. There are no pros. This is a dumpster fire in the White House. The occupant of the position is intentionally rejecting what it even means to be a president. We will never, ever let this stand.

How we collectively spend our time and money between now and November 6 could not be more important. Now that Trump has again called the press “the enemy of the people” it is not overreaching to say that the ink on the Bill of Rights is getting a little blurry. And there is so much more--- threats to the existence of a bloc of democracies that together attend to global security; the declining access by many Americans to health care; and Trump’s aversion to the opportunity for people of all races to be a part of one nation. 

Now we have been treated to Trump’s “everybody does it” tweeted defense about his son and other campaign officials seeking dirt on Hillary Clinton from people connected to a hostile foreign government. This is the same meeting that Trump had previously claimed was about adoption. Trump didn’t know about the meeting, and if he did, it wouldn’t have been collusion, and if it was collusion, it wouldn’t have been illegal, and he is tougher on Russia than anyone. That’s the story for now.

The terrifying and glorious thing is that we don’t have to wait the interminable 27 months until the 2020 presidential elections to stop much of this. What happens next isn’t just up to him, it is up to us. We’re writing this story too. All the more reason for us to do the things now that are most likely to matter on November 6, 2018. The less we waste energy and dollars between now and then, the bigger the blue wave.

Each of us has already been investing time and money in this outcome. This resistance is the largest political movement since the 1960’s. Collectively, we are spending a staggering amount of time on supporting individual candidates, registering voters, and writing checks. The giving intermediary Act Blue alone will channel over $1.5 billion to Democratic candidates and causes this year, over twice the amount in 2016.  

How are we doing in the choices we are making? The extent to which we generate the blue wave depends not just on energy and tenacity, but on devoting our considerable efforts to where they will have the greatest impact. These are seven steps that will guarantee that we will do our very best:

We don’t buy into the narrative that the policy debates within the Democratic Party are going to impair us. Instead, we will see the vigorous exchanges among liberals and progressives on health care and economic justice as what we should be doing if we want to stand for something in addition to being against Donald Trump. (Although being against Donald Trump is a hugely powerful cohesive force, no?)

We remember that it isn’t just about Congress. It’s about taking back state houses and state legislatures. This is even more the case because it is in state capitols that battles against voter suppression by Republicans will be fought. It is also where redistricting plans will be developed after the 2020 census.

We don’t allow ourselves to be distracted by Paul Manafort’s ostrich coat, or Ivanka Trump’s fashion line, or Alan Dershowitz’ arguments with former friends, or even whether Melania Trump watches CNN, though it is a delicious thought that she does.

We pick our targeted races carefully, now that the primaries are ending. Swing Left has identified the 78 House races where we have the best chance to take back seats. There are other such lists, and there are analyses like the Cook Report which would claim that only 40 or so such seats are truly competitive. We should stay with the higher number, and believe in what we can do, so we will not leave behind a candidate who could have won. However, we should not be spending any amount of our time and money on any House race outside the 78 unless (in the uncommon case) we can verify with independent polls or other concrete evidence that the race should be targeted because it has become winnable.

We remember that the Senate is in play, too. It is all about Joe Manchin and Jon Tester winning in West Virginia and Montana, and then Democrats winning 6 of the 7 states that Real Clear Politics rates as toss up states. Mitch McConnell isn’t wrong when he says that it might all come down to whether Democrat Heidi Heitkamp will survive in North Dakota, where Trump retains inexplicable popularity. That’s why Trump was so mad at the global Koch brothers for boosting Heitkamp by withholding their financial support from her opponent Kevin Cramer. (The Koch brothers! Oh, the company we keep…)

We don’t forget that it is a turnout election. Right now, there is an enthusiasm gap which means that Democrats and Democrat-leaning Independents are more excited about voting in the fall than Republicans. We need to continue to fan that enthusiasm. Talking about the blue wave as an unusual phenomenon of which voters want to be a part is a good strategy.

And even after we remember all of these things, we still won’t be done. If we are donating money, we must understand how our chosen candidate is fairing in raising money and what her/his plan is between now and November. If we have any choice in the matter, we will give money now (since campaign treasuries have been depleted during the primaries) rather than waiting until October.

If we are doing postcards or calls from a distance, we will remember to expect a quality effort from the targeted campaign, or the intermediary that is providing the names. We expect to know what our preferred message is and any other information on the approach we are expected to take. We must be given information on what kind of voter names we are being provided so we can do our best job.

It is a good thing to travel to a neighboring Congressional district or even another state to help, but only if we know in advance how we are going to be deployed. Campaigns have a difficult time managing rapid increases in volunteers. Talking to one of the campaign’s volunteer coordinators is essential. We need to know that the campaign we select has figured out these matters so won’t be the seventh volunteer in a week to deliver campaign materials to a household.

Volunteering and donating go hand in hand. Modest sums matter, especially at this point when our candidates are looking to broaden their support. Here are three things we can do today:

1) Find the Intermediary Organization that Works for You
	Sorting out races is difficult. Depending on how much time you want to spend, it isn’t such a bad idea to get a little help from people who work on this every day. Who does a good job of collecting and distributing funds to carefully selected candidates? Swing Left, an upstart from the beginning, continues to impress with its “district funds” project, distributing funds to the most competitive candidates. If you like the idea of proximity, they will help you find the swing district closest to you. Years ago, Emily’s List was an upstart too, and now they are a veteran funder helping sway elections on behalf of pro-choice Democratic women.  There are also inventive projects that help activists in Democratic enclaves find and support state legislative candidates in other districts. Sister Districts is looking for money for these candidates, but they are also looking for volunteer help. They have organized working teams in several areas. It is not too late to search and find some kindred spirits with whom you can work.
2) If You Donate to Just One Candidate, Let it Be Heidi Heitkamp
	We could beat Dean Heller in Nevada and pick up the open seats in Arizona and Tennessee. We could defend Joe Donnelly’s Senate seat in Indiana, and Claire McCaskill’s seat in Missouri. A lot of good things can happen, but we could still fall just short of taking back the Senate majority if we lose Heidi Heitkamp’s very tight race in North Dakota. She won by 3,000 votes in 2012 in a state where Barack Obama was losing to Mitt Romney by 60,000 votes, so has proven herself to be an able campaigner. Yes, this is a race that will attract donors from across the country. But, yes, we still need to send Heidi Heitkamp our $50 or whatever we can put together. She is giving it everything she has, so let’s give her something that we have.  If thinking about the small but real chance we have to win back the Senate is capturing your undivided attention, it certainly would not hurt at all to send some money to Claire McCaskill too.
3) Sign Up to Back Up Michelle Obama
	As reviewed in a previous missive, Michelle Obama has a massive new project to register voters, called When We All Vote. She is backed up by everyone from Lin Manuel Miranda to Tom Hanks, and now she needs to be backed up by all of us.  When We All Vote is sponsoring a huge Week of Action from September 22 to 29. They need event sponsors and volunteers. It’s time to sign up to see what’s going on and see how we can help.  It is important to remember that in taking this on as her singular project during election season, Michelle Obama is setting a different course than what was advocated by Democratic campaign strategists. They have seen voter registration and even get out the vote efforts as the sideshow, not the show. They would rather have the former First Lady endorsing candidates and participating in campaign rallies. What she knows is this year is different. Her organization, and Rock the Vote, and the League of Women Voters, and scores of other efforts could make an exceptional difference in districts that heretofore have been Republican-leaning. Many of these have lower Trump approval ratings but nonetheless need a jolt to the voter base.

Donald Trump is going to spend from now until November 6 doing rallies for mean-spirited candidates and making things up. Robert Mueller will file a hugely consequential report. For our part, we intend to go out and win an election.

David Harrison
Bainbridge Island, Washington