#22: We Must Prevent Him From Afflicting the Afflicted and Comforting the Comfortable

Thank you for continuing to share these messages with your friends, if you are not already on our mailing list, please click here to be added to our list. You can also follow me on Facebook. The more people we can reach, the more we contribute to this growing movement. We share these posts on our blog, A Path Forward to November 3, 2020, every two weeks, which means there will be a total of 100 missives before the Presidential election of 2020, in which our country will select a whole new course.

This fall will bring a whole new set of issues which must be engaged by those who are worried about how our country will move forward. The summer recess by Congress removed the sporadically achieved "regular order" that John McCain sought.

In its place, we got Donald Trump even more unmoored, lurching through Charlottesville and Steve Bannon's departure, throwing out random Korea threats, seeking approval from Fox News and from late night calls with cronies. He has the most tortured nights at the White House since Abraham Lincoln walked at midnight. How awful it must feel to have only tweets and calling Roger Stone as your solace.

There will be a broader set of crises this fall - North Korea, Robert Mueller's progress, the Hurricane Harvey aftermath and with it the realization that Donald Trump has no capacity to lead the response. Notably, there will be an effort this fall by a bipartisan group of senators to shore up the health insurance markets that Donald Trump has roiled.

However, the best opportunities this fall for the millions of us who are dedicated to resistance will come in the areas of budget, finance and tax. Congress will determine whether and how the debt ceiling will be raised, how the government will be funded for the next several months, and how our taxes will be "reformed".

These are not just numbers on the page. Regarding the extension of government spending into December or January, we either will have a funded and functioning State Department and Foreign Service or we will not. Huge budget cuts for the EPA can be prevented. The modest Federal support of Planned Parenthood can be maintained. And, we can remove Donald Trump's thumb from the eye of the Mexican people by not building the wall.

Two forces will converge in assisting us in meeting these goals. First, Republicans are not unmindful that Donald Trump's criticisms of them can damage them politically, but they are still more worried about him and less scared of him than at any time since he was elected.

Secondly, and as important, the rules of the Senate will strengthen the hands of the Democrats by requiring 60 votes to close off debate on both the budget resolution and the increase in the debt ceiling. This will give Charles Schumer and his Senate Democrat colleagues plenty of leverage.

In the House, the Freedom Caucus will want significant Medicaid cuts as a part of a deal to increase the debt ceiling. Paul Ryan may have to make a deal with Democrats to keep the government open, which in turn could imperil his speakership. To him and to Mitch McConnell, Donald Trump is no help on any of this.

Tax reform will test the resistance, because Democratic members of Congress have some interest in adjusting the levels of corporate taxation, seeking to boost companies to higher levels of international competitiveness. Here's where the devil will be there with the details. Past tax reform efforts have exacerbated the growing wealth maldistribution that plagues America. Corporate tax reductions of the recent past have not resulted in levels of corporate investment in people, plants, and equipment that policymakers have projected.

Donald Trump, in the face of all these challenges, will want to afflict the afflicted and comfort the comfortable. These three actions can make certain we go in the right direction:

1) Senator Schumer, Tear Down That Wall
	Donald Trump still wants to build the wall. As he told Mexican President Peña Nieto in January he needs to do so because he promised his base he would. To the rest of us this is not a compelling reason to proceed. Certainly, there is political significance for him winning or losing this battle, but this proposal is about a greater crime - treating another nation as Trump lackeys and living a lie about Mexico. The good news is that the Senate rules and Trump's unpopularity are giving Democrats more traction on budget items. However, with that traction comes the promising but delicate opportunity to trade with Republican leadership, securing a gain on one front while making a sacrifice on another. Write minority leader Schumer's key staff member and tell her that for millions of us any building of the wall is not acceptable. Meghan Taira Legislative Director (202) 224-6542 meghan_taira@schumer.senate.gov
2) Confront Tax Reform as a Wealth Disparity Issue
	It's easy to get lost in the technical complexity of tax reform. It's that complexity that could make it possible for there to be some bipartisan support for a reduction in corporate tax rates without anyone sufficiently addressing ways to address wealth disparities and the continued gilding of the very rich. Corporate tax reform is a new opportunity for Mitch McConnell to pick off Democratic senators from states which Donald Trump won, including Heidi Heitkamp from North Dakota, Joe Manchin from West Virginia and Claire McCaskill from Missouri. Email these three legislative directors and tell the Senator for whom they work to demand tax fairness as an indispensable element of any bill they support: janelle_mcclure@mccaskill.senate.gov tracee_sutton@heitkamp.senate.gov wesley_kunge@manchin.senate.gov Check Americans for Tax Fairness for any underlying information you need.
3) Re-gear for Planned Parenthood
	The defeat of the "skinny" health care bill with John McCain's dramatic thumbs-down saved Planned Parenthood funding for now. This battle will remain pitched until we take back the House in 2018. As outlined in missive #19, Senator Lisa Murkowski of Alaska is our leader and deserves our thanks. Attention must now be paid to strengthen an already strong reproductive freedom movement. Planned Parenthood has an all new initiative built around the defense and advocacy for 600 clinics around the country and they are looking for more help from you today.

It just keeps on. Donald Trump says he loves dreamers except when he kicks them out of the country. He loves Harvey victims except when he treats the whole disaster like his own reality tv show.

He sees South Korea and China as major partners fighting the dangers of Kim Jong-un except for when he tweet-trashes them.

As a movement, we continue to grow. We are parrying everywhere we can and we are having great success. This demands our concentration every week as new offenses emerge, but there is no question that all of us together are up to this job.

David Harrison
Bainbridge Island, Washington

#19: A Republic If You Can Keep It

Thank you for continuing to share these messages with your friends, if you are not already on our mailing list, please click here to be added to our list. You can also follow me on Facebook. The more people we can reach, the more we contribute to this growing movement. We share these posts on our blog, A Path Forward to November 3, 2020, every two weeks, which means there will be a total of 100 missives before the Presidential election of 2020, in which our country will select a whole new course.

During the Constitutional Convention, Benjamin Franklin was approached by a citizen in a Philadelphia square outside the closed meetings. The woman said “Well, Doctor, what do we have, a republic or a monarchy?” And Dr. Franklin said, “A republic, if you can keep it.”

And so, we have tended for 230 years to our collective commitment to self-determination and the freedoms it generates. As a country, we have done some awful things and harbored searing injustices, but we have kept the republic. As much as there is a beacon anywhere for long-lasting democracy, we represent that beacon, however great its disrepair. We will not let that light dim through the actions of a man who has not been and will not be fit to be president.

When he swore an oath, we swore one too. His is not going well. Tweeting away on health care, he has displayed no understanding of either the system he wants to replace or what would come next. Worse, he has no need nor desire to understand these things. He said recently, “They are always talking about death. Obamacare is death”. In his public discourse, he is one short step away from “So’s your old man.”

In Washington, he has been found out by his own staff and cabinet heads, who know he wants sycophants. The Congress is about to pass sanctions on Russia that take us in the opposite direction from the Putin political embrace for which Trump had been yearning. Things are getting harder and harder for him as weeks go by. He watches Fox & Friends for their creative interpretation of the world, and tweets the night away. With the Mueller investigation and the Trumpian raging at Jeff Sessions, it is difficult to see his performance or voter approval improving.

Our oath is going well. Under these circumstances it is hard to take much joy in that, but the preliminary results are in. All together we have created a movement that will be sustainable throughout the four or fewer years of the Trump presidency. Trump’s support from independents has deteriorated. As Gallup notes, the average presidential approval rating by independents is 53%. Trump’s has fallen to 36%. Further, the news story about how his Republican base is undaunted is misleading. Support has lessened, and fewer than 30% of those polled are identifying as Republican in the first place.

Currently, it is not a problem that ours is a movement that has just a little coordination, innumerable priorities, no single leader, and an indistinct affirmative agenda. Certainly, all those things will have to change over time. For now, it is a blessing that we are sprawling and spirited and that we are not a Democratic Party project. Indivisible has been nearly indispensable, but there are countless initiatives and an unabated fervor. If you have remained fervent yourself, please keep that up.

If you have found your fervency flagging a little bit over time, or you are at least a little less focused that you had been, you may be forgetting how much you matter. Sorry to say, but the only way this works is that we all must remain relentless. For motivation, how about reminding yourself how you felt the morning after the election? If you have stopped being a participant and started being a spectator instead, come back right now, please.

The successful motion to proceed to the amendment process does not mean that the Senate will repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act, because they still don’t have 50 votes behind any course of action. Their first two major actions failed 57-43 (comprehensive bill) and 55-45 (repeal without replace). However, as described in missive #18, many Republican Senators are still thinking that it will be better for them over time if they pass a deeply unpopular bill to repeal and replace than if they refuse to do so. The national outpouring, the calls and emails and notes that you and your neighbors have sent, has already placed them in a deep quandary. Here are three things right now that will make it deeper:

1)Targeting State Fiscal Issues
	Mitch McConnell is going to use the upcoming amendment process to gauge how he can get to 50 votes. He has been inducing individual senators, trying to give them political “cover” by spending more on their key concerns, like the opioid crisis (Shelley Moore Capito of West Virginia) or provider subsidies in areas with higher cost insurance (Lisa Murkowski of Alaska). The battle over extended Medicaid coverage is the most painful for Senators like Capito, Rob Portman of Ohio, and Dean Heller of Nevada. Their states accepted the Medicaid deal in the Alternative Care Act and do not want to turn back, since it would throw as many as hundreds of thousands of their constituents off their insurance. These Senators know what McConnell is going to end up with will be a bad fiscal deal for their states, because the revenues those states receive to cover low income citizens will be capped, and the expenditures will not be. Almost all states face constitutional requirements that their budgets be balanced annually. When revenues go down, throwing people off Medicaid is always a leading alternative. The current proposal would cost states $218 billion in federal support between 2020 and 2029. Dean Heller’s own Republican Governor Bryan Sandoval hates these cuts a lot. And, Heller is up for reelection in 2018. Let’s concentrate our voices here. As you know, send Dean Heller emails and do phone calls that are your own words. Something like “You know that with this one vote you would do fiscal harm to this state for decades.” Here’s three Heller calls to make or emails to write: Legislative Assistant (for health care) Rachel Green rachel_green@heller.senate.gov (202) 224-6244 Legislative Director Sarah Paul sarah_paul@heller.senate.gov (202) 226-6244 Chief of Staff Mac Abrams mac_abrams@heller.senate.gov (202) 226-6244
2) Reinforcing Lisa Murkowski’s Planned Parenthood Defense
	Lisa Murkowski of Alaska joined Susan Collins of Maine as the two Republican Senators who voted against proceeding with consideration of the bill. One of their primary motivations is protecting Planned Parenthood, whose federal funding for broader women’s health services would be cut to zero. They have received some good news from the Senate parliamentarian, who has ruled that a provision to Planned Parenthood is not subject to the budget reconciliation process and therefore would require 60 votes to cut off debate, not 51. Murkowski can and will use this for leverage, but her ultimate opposition to repeal and replace is not as predictable as that of Susan Collins. The quality of reproductive health care in America may depend upon her ultimate vote. Now is a wonderful time to reinforce the strong stand she has taken on this issue. Here’s who to tell: Morgan Griffin Legislative Assistant (for health care) morgan_griffin@murkowski.senate.gov 202-224-6655
3) Make a Progress Payment
	It is a possibility that the Senate will pass a bill that will be the worst piece of legislation in the past two decades. The number one idea of this bill is to enable the significant reduction in the number of people who receive health care in America. What a shameful thing this is. Let’s make a contribution to taking back the House as a declaration that this will not stand. Between now and mid-August, Congress will pass a bill to repeal and provide a “replacement”, or they will not. Let’s keep fighting for the latter outcome, but let’s keep getting ready for November 6, 2018. Giving through Swing Left’s district funds is an excellent way to give to races that are sure to count, and to stockpile money to help recruit the best challengers.

This is going to keep going on. The Trump speech to the Boy Scouts is just one more day-to-day example that this man is unmoored by any understanding of what being President requires of him. There will be some more of this, no? And, of course, we will spend the fall on Mueller disclosures and actions unless Trump fires him before then and precipitates a constitutional crisis.

And then there is the Congress, clearly and resolutely taking the opposite course from Trump on sanctioning Russia. A number of commentators have opined that this is a symbol of Congress’ heightened resolve. Since members of Congress face almost no opposition in their districts to their being harder on Russia, it might be better to eschew the praise on this front.

So, we will expect more praiseworthy actions, at least from the Senate. Even if more such blessings appear, our relentlessness will continue. This is no time to avert our gaze or lose our focus.

David Harrison
Bainbridge Island, Washington