#20: Here's The Best Thing to Say About This Mess

Thank you for continuing to share these messages with your friends, if you are not already on our mailing list, please click here to be added to our list. You can also follow me on Facebook. The more people we can reach, the more we contribute to this growing movement. We share these posts on our blog, A Path Forward to November 3, 2020, every two weeks, which means there will be a total of 100 missives before the Presidential election of 2020, in which our country will select a whole new course.

It seems interminable, but Donald Trump has been President for barely more than a half year. With the investigation by special prosecutor Robert Mueller, he may not make it four years. But the odds are greater that he will. Sure, most Republicans in the House and Senate would prefer to have Mike Pence as President. However, if they participate in any kind of induced departure they will severely split their party for 2020 and beyond, much worse than the split they have at present.

The President’s performance so far has been poorer than many of us imagined it would be. Our country is being “led” by an international bully. He is scandalously ignorant on countless major issues. His tendency to deny he said what he said or meant what he meant is unequaled in the history of the American presidency. Here’s the best thing to say about this mess.

Trump’s current huge disapproval levels are associated with Democrats taking back 45 seats in the House in November of 2018. We need to get 24 to regain the majority. Yes, we are fully capable of pulling defeat out of the jaws of victory but right now the good news is that the intensity of the resistance and Trump’s performance have placed us in a strong position. It is hard to be relentless for 16 months, but that is what will be called for.

Republicans need 60 votes to pass a budget in the Senate. They don’t want to shut down the government for lack of a budget, since voters would be unenthused about such a tactic. So, they will need to compromise with Democratic Senators, which in turn means no real progress for Trump on his wall. During the rest of the summer and early fall, the action will shift to the need to pass an increase in the national debt ceiling. Stay tuned for a wild time.

Members of Congress have gone home and Donald Trump has headed for a 17 day stay at a New Jersey golf club he owns. The news may slow down a bit over this period, and it is time to take stock. What we find are glimmers that Trump’s own party will stand up to him now and again when it counts, that their disquiet is growing and that they no longer think that their ties to him on health care and tax policy are advantageous.

The push back by Republicans on Russia sanctions and on Robert Mueller is not insignificant, but it is also not sufficient. (See missive #18 on the nature of the sordid deal that keeps them from stepping in much more often.) Furthermore, few, if any, of their interventions would be taking place if it were not for the massive citizen resistance to Trump and his resultant low popularity among voters.

The Senate Republicans are still askew after the huge drama of John McCain asking for “regular order” (the normal functioning of the Senate under its rules) and voting against Mitch McConnell’s “skinny” health care bill. They are extremely unlikely to find another path to 50 votes anytime soon. The signal of a new direction came from Republican leader John Thune of South Dakota, who in the face of taunting tweets from Trump said, “Maybe lightning will strike… but I am not holding my breath.”

Senator Lamar Alexander (chair of the Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor and Pensions) has joined with the ranking Democrat on the Committee (Patty Murray of Washington) to announce public hearings in September on how to shore up the very health care exchanges and markets that Trump is deliberately destabilizing. There are similar bi-partisan discussions in the House. None of these things would have happened were it not for the intensive efforts of citizens across America. What better motivation could there be to redouble these efforts? 

During the Congressional break is a great time for us to attend to our broader efforts to renew our country. Here’s three things we can do:

1) Make Certain We are Allied With Key Organizers
	It is a good thing that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is not the only force or even the primary force behind organizing us all to take back the House. Indivisible has been indispensable in spurring local activity and Swing Left, after an uneven start, has done its own good job of targeting winnable districts. Organizing for Action is now accelerating its activity.   There is enough work to go around. Organizing for Action (once called Obama for America) has excellent ties to Barack and Michelle Obama, proven organizing savvy, and good ties to potential Democratic candidates. They are another very good choice as we all figure out the best place to ally ourselves and apply our energies.  Now is not the time to wonder which Congressional race or races to dive into. Now is the time to decide which race to dive into. For those who live in a safe Democratic district and whose member of Congress is doing a good job, often a swing district is nearby and is already in play. Many local Indivisible groups have adopted races, and Indivisible, Swing Left and others are doing a good job of examining and identifying which races to target. Jump in now. Early money, and early organizing strength is like yeast.
2) Don’t Forget “Down Ballot” Races
	2010 was awful year in American politics. A number of state legislatures garnered Republican majorities and thus were empowered to manage redistricting processes. In some states like Wisconsin, North Carolina and Texas, egregious forms of gerrymandering ensued. In a few instances, the approach has been addressed by the courts, who may ultimately develop new means of determining at what point a gerrymandered district has violated constitutional standards. In the meantime, we must get more oriented toward down ballot races for the State Legislature. These will ultimately determine who will be in the majority in state capitals after the 2020 elections. Additionally, state legislatures are playing a key role in pushing back against Trump’s assaults on health care an environment regulations. There is an excellent way to pick a key state legislative race and lend your financial or other support. The new organization Sister Districts will match you up with work to be done in specific key races.
3) Make Sure People are Registered
	In previous issue of this missive, we have emphasized the considerable ongoing voting efforts of Mi Familia. Recognizing that several states have increased the opportunity for online registration, Voto Latino is an important place to provide support, since they emphasize online approaches.

With the unfortunate last-minute announcement of James Comey, with the illegal involvement of the Russians and their possible collusion by Trump, with the errors in our own efforts, we lost by 70,000 votes spread over Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. What a horrible thing to have so many efforts on global alliances, climate change, health care, reproductive freedom and countless other progressive strategies turn to ash on a single day.

But it couldn’t be any clearer that we have already risen from the ashes and dusted ourselves off. The worst of American Republicanism, its shielding of people of privilege from the challenges of the world, its me-only obsession, is now out in the open. We know what we are fighting against, and it is already abundantly clear that we can win. So let’s win.

David Harrison
Bainbridge Island, Washington