#46: We Intend to Go Out and Win an Election

Thank you for continuing to share these messages with your friends, if you are not already on our mailing list, please click here to be added to our list. You can also follow me on Facebook. The more people we can reach, the more we contribute to this growing movement. We share these posts on our blog, A Path Forward to November 3, 2020, every two weeks, which means there will be a total of 100 missives before the Presidential election of 2020, in which our country will select a whole new course.

At least we don’t need to devote our precious time examining the pros and cons of supporting the sitting President. There are no pros. This is a dumpster fire in the White House. The occupant of the position is intentionally rejecting what it even means to be a president. We will never, ever let this stand.

How we collectively spend our time and money between now and November 6 could not be more important. Now that Trump has again called the press “the enemy of the people” it is not overreaching to say that the ink on the Bill of Rights is getting a little blurry. And there is so much more--- threats to the existence of a bloc of democracies that together attend to global security; the declining access by many Americans to health care; and Trump’s aversion to the opportunity for people of all races to be a part of one nation. 

Now we have been treated to Trump’s “everybody does it” tweeted defense about his son and other campaign officials seeking dirt on Hillary Clinton from people connected to a hostile foreign government. This is the same meeting that Trump had previously claimed was about adoption. Trump didn’t know about the meeting, and if he did, it wouldn’t have been collusion, and if it was collusion, it wouldn’t have been illegal, and he is tougher on Russia than anyone. That’s the story for now.

The terrifying and glorious thing is that we don’t have to wait the interminable 27 months until the 2020 presidential elections to stop much of this. What happens next isn’t just up to him, it is up to us. We’re writing this story too. All the more reason for us to do the things now that are most likely to matter on November 6, 2018. The less we waste energy and dollars between now and then, the bigger the blue wave.

Each of us has already been investing time and money in this outcome. This resistance is the largest political movement since the 1960’s. Collectively, we are spending a staggering amount of time on supporting individual candidates, registering voters, and writing checks. The giving intermediary Act Blue alone will channel over $1.5 billion to Democratic candidates and causes this year, over twice the amount in 2016.  

How are we doing in the choices we are making? The extent to which we generate the blue wave depends not just on energy and tenacity, but on devoting our considerable efforts to where they will have the greatest impact. These are seven steps that will guarantee that we will do our very best:

We don’t buy into the narrative that the policy debates within the Democratic Party are going to impair us. Instead, we will see the vigorous exchanges among liberals and progressives on health care and economic justice as what we should be doing if we want to stand for something in addition to being against Donald Trump. (Although being against Donald Trump is a hugely powerful cohesive force, no?)

We remember that it isn’t just about Congress. It’s about taking back state houses and state legislatures. This is even more the case because it is in state capitols that battles against voter suppression by Republicans will be fought. It is also where redistricting plans will be developed after the 2020 census.

We don’t allow ourselves to be distracted by Paul Manafort’s ostrich coat, or Ivanka Trump’s fashion line, or Alan Dershowitz’ arguments with former friends, or even whether Melania Trump watches CNN, though it is a delicious thought that she does.

We pick our targeted races carefully, now that the primaries are ending. Swing Left has identified the 78 House races where we have the best chance to take back seats. There are other such lists, and there are analyses like the Cook Report which would claim that only 40 or so such seats are truly competitive. We should stay with the higher number, and believe in what we can do, so we will not leave behind a candidate who could have won. However, we should not be spending any amount of our time and money on any House race outside the 78 unless (in the uncommon case) we can verify with independent polls or other concrete evidence that the race should be targeted because it has become winnable.

We remember that the Senate is in play, too. It is all about Joe Manchin and Jon Tester winning in West Virginia and Montana, and then Democrats winning 6 of the 7 states that Real Clear Politics rates as toss up states. Mitch McConnell isn’t wrong when he says that it might all come down to whether Democrat Heidi Heitkamp will survive in North Dakota, where Trump retains inexplicable popularity. That’s why Trump was so mad at the global Koch brothers for boosting Heitkamp by withholding their financial support from her opponent Kevin Cramer. (The Koch brothers! Oh, the company we keep…)

We don’t forget that it is a turnout election. Right now, there is an enthusiasm gap which means that Democrats and Democrat-leaning Independents are more excited about voting in the fall than Republicans. We need to continue to fan that enthusiasm. Talking about the blue wave as an unusual phenomenon of which voters want to be a part is a good strategy.

And even after we remember all of these things, we still won’t be done. If we are donating money, we must understand how our chosen candidate is fairing in raising money and what her/his plan is between now and November. If we have any choice in the matter, we will give money now (since campaign treasuries have been depleted during the primaries) rather than waiting until October.

If we are doing postcards or calls from a distance, we will remember to expect a quality effort from the targeted campaign, or the intermediary that is providing the names. We expect to know what our preferred message is and any other information on the approach we are expected to take. We must be given information on what kind of voter names we are being provided so we can do our best job.

It is a good thing to travel to a neighboring Congressional district or even another state to help, but only if we know in advance how we are going to be deployed. Campaigns have a difficult time managing rapid increases in volunteers. Talking to one of the campaign’s volunteer coordinators is essential. We need to know that the campaign we select has figured out these matters so won’t be the seventh volunteer in a week to deliver campaign materials to a household.

Volunteering and donating go hand in hand. Modest sums matter, especially at this point when our candidates are looking to broaden their support. Here are three things we can do today:

1) Find the Intermediary Organization that Works for You
	Sorting out races is difficult. Depending on how much time you want to spend, it isn’t such a bad idea to get a little help from people who work on this every day. Who does a good job of collecting and distributing funds to carefully selected candidates? Swing Left, an upstart from the beginning, continues to impress with its “district funds” project, distributing funds to the most competitive candidates. If you like the idea of proximity, they will help you find the swing district closest to you. Years ago, Emily’s List was an upstart too, and now they are a veteran funder helping sway elections on behalf of pro-choice Democratic women.  There are also inventive projects that help activists in Democratic enclaves find and support state legislative candidates in other districts. Sister Districts is looking for money for these candidates, but they are also looking for volunteer help. They have organized working teams in several areas. It is not too late to search and find some kindred spirits with whom you can work.
2) If You Donate to Just One Candidate, Let it Be Heidi Heitkamp
	We could beat Dean Heller in Nevada and pick up the open seats in Arizona and Tennessee. We could defend Joe Donnelly’s Senate seat in Indiana, and Claire McCaskill’s seat in Missouri. A lot of good things can happen, but we could still fall just short of taking back the Senate majority if we lose Heidi Heitkamp’s very tight race in North Dakota. She won by 3,000 votes in 2012 in a state where Barack Obama was losing to Mitt Romney by 60,000 votes, so has proven herself to be an able campaigner. Yes, this is a race that will attract donors from across the country. But, yes, we still need to send Heidi Heitkamp our $50 or whatever we can put together. She is giving it everything she has, so let’s give her something that we have.  If thinking about the small but real chance we have to win back the Senate is capturing your undivided attention, it certainly would not hurt at all to send some money to Claire McCaskill too.
3) Sign Up to Back Up Michelle Obama
	As reviewed in a previous missive, Michelle Obama has a massive new project to register voters, called When We All Vote. She is backed up by everyone from Lin Manuel Miranda to Tom Hanks, and now she needs to be backed up by all of us.  When We All Vote is sponsoring a huge Week of Action from September 22 to 29. They need event sponsors and volunteers. It’s time to sign up to see what’s going on and see how we can help.  It is important to remember that in taking this on as her singular project during election season, Michelle Obama is setting a different course than what was advocated by Democratic campaign strategists. They have seen voter registration and even get out the vote efforts as the sideshow, not the show. They would rather have the former First Lady endorsing candidates and participating in campaign rallies. What she knows is this year is different. Her organization, and Rock the Vote, and the League of Women Voters, and scores of other efforts could make an exceptional difference in districts that heretofore have been Republican-leaning. Many of these have lower Trump approval ratings but nonetheless need a jolt to the voter base.

Donald Trump is going to spend from now until November 6 doing rallies for mean-spirited candidates and making things up. Robert Mueller will file a hugely consequential report. For our part, we intend to go out and win an election.

David Harrison
Bainbridge Island, Washington