Keep your eyes focused on your inbox for an upcoming special blog report on the role of science in governmental decision making and the widespread abuse of science by Donald Trump.
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Thank you for continuing to share these messages with your friends. If you are not already on our mailing list, please click here to be added to our list. You can also follow me on Facebook where you can read and share these messages. The more people we can reach, the more we contribute to this growing movement. We share these posts on our blog, A Path Forward to November 3, 2020, every two weeks, which means there will be a total of 103 missives before the Presidential election of 2020, in which our country will select a whole new course.
Just under seven weeks until the election, Donald Trump wants to knock the American voter off stride. He is hoping to generate so many false claims about Joe Biden, the virus, and election practices that disgusted voters will walk away from the whole thing. It will be a turnout election, which benefits Democrats, so Trump and allies have been intent for months now on voter suppression. They know that if we all act like we did in 2018 when we secured record turnouts, this awful nightmare will be over on November 3.
To this point, that is exactly how we are acting. As we rely on mail-in ballots to enable citizens to vote during the pandemic, Trump is doing everything and saying everything he can to sully the process, even though he could end up depressing his own turnout. That’s because national polls have around 50% of likely voters intending to vote for Biden and Harris, with another 7% or 8% undecided. Biden’s totals have been uncommonly invulnerable to Trump’s attacks. Trump needs to get a few million people to form an all new opinion about Biden or about voting in the next few weeks. He is running out of time.
It seems bizarre that he would return again to his too small base, but in addition to his craven desire for their love, it is a plan of sorts. He is trying to lock up a huge percentage of every human who could possibly vote for him, and at the same time discredit voting so much that countless other Americans will want to get fumigated rather than cast a ballot. His biggest problem is that the fulminations, deceptions, and prevarications have been noticed by many sentient human beings. The focus upon him in the daily news cycle is itself the number one Democratic get out the vote scheme.
We have not won yet, and we aren’t going to stop worrying about our country until we do (or even after that), but there is evidence that helps us fight the disorientation that Trump seeks.
- The polling averages at Real Clear Politics show us with a lead in eight states that Trump won in 2016: Florida, Arizona, Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Wisconsin and North Carolina. Iowa, Texas and Georgia are in play, too. For Biden, there are dozens of paths to 270 electoral votes, and there are many fewer for Trump.
- There are encouraging signs on generating turnout. We lead in new voter registrations in several swing states. The same approach is generating great results in vote by mail applications. Democratic requests are far greater than Republican requests in targeted states including 451,000 to 294,000 in Florida.
- Bob Woodward’s Rage is solidifying Trump’s deserved electoral disadvantage on virus management. As much as the media has identified the donning of masks as a blue vs red division, nearly three quarters of Americans approve of requirements to wear masks in public.
- Michael Bloomberg’s pledge to spend $100 million in Florida is very significant. The 538 and Real Clear Politics polling averages give Biden a narrow lead in Florida which Bloomberg’s spending can bolster. The new Monmouth University poll (highly rated by 538) has Biden with a 5% lead.
It is possible or perhaps even likely that Trump’s unwillingness to guarantee that he is leaving is just another one of the dumpster fires he has been lighting to suppress the vote and to set up a claim of fraud so that his followers won’t see him as a “loser”. But of course we can’t leave anything to chance, and therefore we must do these three things:
| 1) Eliminating the “Red Mirage” | |
 | There has been some considerable and understandable hand wringing over what will surely be much more extensive use of mail-in ballots by Democrats than Republicans. Virtually every swing state permits either “no excuse necessary” absentee voting or otherwise provides a clear path to a mail in ballot. The argument goes that this could create a red mirage. A disproportionate number of Trump supporters could cast their ballots at the polls, creating a misperception of his electoral strength on election night. However, several swing states begin processing and certifying their mail-in ballots weeks before November 3. On election night, they count those already certified ballots at the same time as they receive the totals from polling places that are closing. These include four key states where Joe Biden is running ahead--- Arizona, Ohio, North Carolina, Florida. If we send our mail-in ballots early and continue to stress voter turnout, totals from these states could eliminate the red mirage from the outset. Unfortunately, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania have rules that prevent earlier processing and certification only starts in earnest on election day. That could change in Pennsylvania, where Democratic governor Tom Wolf is negotiating with Republicans in the State Legislature to allow counties to begin processing three weeks before the election. Wolf is committed to taking other steps to expedite counting. Write him today and urge him to stay focused on this challenge until he fixes it. |
2) Helping Donald Trump Out the Door | |
 | Every Member of Congress has an opinion on whether Donald Trump’s comments about not honoring the results of the election are concerning. No one is accustomed to having this discussion. Many or even most feel it is just one more part of the above described miseries, in which Trump will allege he was cheated out of re-election to try to solidify his future following, not because he would actually refuse to leave. It is not anything one would want to leave to chance, so it is a certainty that this is being talked about quietly in Congress, the Administration and in Justice John Roberts’ chambers. Senior Senators are valuable on this score. Contact the three retiring Republican Senators and tell them that they must pay attention to what for them is a very uncomfortable issue, and that the world is watching.
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| 3) Give Again to Joe Biden and Kamala Harris | |
 | Collectively, all of us gave $364 million to this ticket in August, an unprecedented total and major momentum builder. This has given this ticket a strong cash advantage going into the final weeks of the campaign. Surely, there are lots of ways to donate to achieve the correct outcome of November 3, but this particular way is calling attention to itself at this very moment. If possible, click and donate at least one more time: https://joebiden.com/. |
In our worst nightmares in November of 2016 we did not anticipate the depths of what has transpired. However, we do anticipate the exhilaration of having it be over, no matter how much future work will be before us.
David Harrison
Bainbridge Island, Washington
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